A Staged Approach using Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification to Predict the Risk of Hip Fracture

Despite advancements in medical care, hip fractures impose a significant burden on individuals and healthcare systems. This paper focuses on the prediction of hip fracture risk in older and middle-aged adults, where falls and compromised bone quality are predominant factors. We propose a novel staged model that combines advanced imaging and clinical data to improve predictive performance. By using CNNs to extract features from hip DXA images, along with clinical variables, shape measurements, and texture features, our method provides a comprehensive framework for assessing fracture risk. A staged machine learning-based model was developed using two ensemble models: Ensemble 1 (clinical variables only) and Ensemble 2 (clinical variables and DXA imaging features). This staged approach used uncertainty quantification from Ensemble 1 to decide if DXA features are necessary for further prediction. Ensemble 2 exhibited the highest performance, achieving an AUC of 0.9541, an accuracy of 0.9195, a sensitivity of 0.8078, and a specificity of 0.9427. The staged model also performed well, with an AUC of 0.8486, an accuracy of 0.8611, a sensitivity of 0.5578, and a specificity of 0.9249, outperforming Ensemble 1, which had an AUC of 0.5549, an accuracy of 0.7239, a sensitivity of 0.1956, and a specificity of 0.8343. Furthermore, the staged model suggested that 54.49% of patients did not require DXA scanning. It effectively balanced accuracy and specificity, offering a robust solution when DXA data acquisition is not always feasible. Statistical tests confirmed significant differences between the models, highlighting the advantages of the advanced modeling strategies. Our staged approach could identify individuals at risk with a high accuracy but reduce the unnecessary DXA scanning. It has great promise to guide interventions to prevent hip fractures with reduced cost and radiation.

Multi-View Variational Autoencoder for Missing Value Imputation in Untargeted Metabolomics

Background: Missing data is a common challenge in mass spectrometry-based metabolomics, which can lead to biased and incomplete analyses. The integration of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data with metabolomics data has emerged as a promising approach to enhance the accuracy of data imputation in metabolomics studies. Method: In this study, we propose a novel method that leverages the information from WGS data and reference metabolites to impute unknown metabolites. Our approach utilizes a multi-view variational autoencoder to jointly model the burden score, polygenetic risk score (PGS), and linkage disequilibrium (LD) pruned single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for feature extraction and missing metabolomics data imputation. By learning the latent representations of both omics data, our method can effectively impute missing metabolomics values based on genomic information. Results: We evaluate the performance of our method on empirical metabolomics datasets with missing values and demonstrate its superiority compared to conventional imputation techniques. Using 35 template metabolites derived burden scores, PGS and LD-pruned SNPs, the proposed methods achieved r2-scores > 0.01 for 71.55% of metabolites. Conclusion: The integration of WGS data in metabolomics imputation not only improves data completeness but also enhances downstream analyses, paving the way for more comprehensive and accurate investigations of metabolic pathways and disease associations. Our findings offer valuable insights into the potential benefits of utilizing WGS data for metabolomics data imputation and underscore the importance of leveraging multi-modal data integration in precision medicine research.