Example-Based Concept Analysis Framework for Deep Weather Forecast Models

To improve the trustworthiness of an AI model, finding consistent, understandable representations of its inference process is essential. This understanding is particularly important in high-stakes operations such as weather forecasting, where the identification of underlying meteorological mechanisms is as critical as the accuracy of the predictions. Despite the growing literature that addresses this issue through explainable AI, the applicability of their solutions is often limited due to their AI-centric development. To fill this gap, we follow a user-centric process to develop an example-based concept analysis framework, which identifies cases that follow a similar inference process as the target instance in a target model and presents them in a user-comprehensible format. Our framework provides the users with visually and conceptually analogous examples, including the probability of concept assignment to resolve ambiguities in weather mechanisms. To bridge the gap between vector representations identified from models and human-understandable explanations, we compile a human-annotated concept dataset and implement a user interface to assist domain experts involved in the the framework development.

Conditional Temporal Neural Processes with Covariance Loss

We introduce a novel loss function, Covariance Loss, which is conceptually equivalent to conditional neural processes and has a form of regularization so that is applicable to many kinds of neural networks. With the proposed loss, mappings from input variables to target variables are highly affected by dependencies of target variables as well as mean activation and mean dependencies of input and target variables. This nature enables the resulting neural networks to become more robust to noisy observations and recapture missing dependencies from prior information. In order to show the validity of the proposed loss, we conduct extensive sets of experiments on real-world datasets with state-of-the-art models and discuss the benefits and drawbacks of the proposed Covariance Loss.

Explainable AI-Based Interface System for Weather Forecasting Model

Machine learning (ML) is becoming increasingly popular in meteorological decision-making. Although the literature on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is growing steadily, user-centered XAI studies have not extend to this domain yet. This study defines three requirements for explanations of black-box models in meteorology through user studies: statistical model performance for different rainfall scenarios to identify model bias, model reasoning, and the confidence of model outputs. Appropriate XAI methods are mapped to each requirement, and the generated explanations are tested quantitatively and qualitatively. An XAI interface system is designed based on user feedback. The results indicate that the explanations increase decision utility and user trust. Users prefer intuitive explanations over those based on XAI algorithms even for potentially easy-to-recognize examples. These findings can provide evidence for future research on user-centered XAI algorithms, as well as a basis to improve the usability of AI systems in practice.

Enhancing Creative Generation on Stable Diffusion-based Models

Recent text-to-image generative models, particularly Stable Diffusion and its distilled variants, have achieved impressive fidelity and strong text-image alignment. However, their creative capability remains constrained, as including `creative' in prompts seldom yields the desired results. This paper introduces C3 (Creative Concept Catalyst), a training-free approach designed to enhance creativity in Stable Diffusion-based models. C3 selectively amplifies features during the denoising process to foster more creative outputs. We offer practical guidelines for choosing amplification factors based on two main aspects of creativity. C3 is the first study to enhance creativity in diffusion models without extensive computational costs. We demonstrate its effectiveness across various Stable Diffusion-based models.

Probing Network Decisions: Capturing Uncertainties and Unveiling Vulnerabilities Without Label Information

To improve trust and transparency, it is crucial to be able to interpret the decisions of Deep Neural classifiers (DNNs). Instance-level examinations, such as attribution techniques, are commonly employed to interpret the model decisions. However, when interpreting misclassified decisions, human intervention may be required. Analyzing the attribu tions across each class within one instance can be particularly labor intensive and influenced by the bias of the human interpreter. In this paper, we present a novel framework to uncover the weakness of the classifier via counterfactual examples. A prober is introduced to learn the correctness of the classifier's decision in terms of binary code-hit or miss. It enables the creation of the counterfactual example concerning the prober's decision. We test the performance of our prober's misclassification detection and verify its effectiveness on the image classification benchmark datasets. Furthermore, by generating counterfactuals that penetrate the prober, we demonstrate that our framework effectively identifies vulnerabilities in the target classifier without relying on label information on the MNIST dataset.

Neural ODE Transformers: Analyzing Internal Dynamics and Adaptive Fine-tuning

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) based on transformer architectures have sparked significant interest in understanding their inner workings. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to modeling transformer architectures using highly flexible non-autonomous neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Our proposed model parameterizes all weights of attention and feed-forward blocks through neural networks, expressing these weights as functions of a continuous layer index. Through spectral analysis of the model's dynamics, we uncover an increase in eigenvalue magnitude that challenges the weight-sharing assumption prevalent in existing theoretical studies. We also leverage the Lyapunov exponent to examine token-level sensitivity, enhancing model interpretability. Our neural ODE transformer demonstrates performance comparable to or better than vanilla transformers across various configurations and datasets, while offering flexible fine-tuning capabilities that can adapt to different architectural constraints.

Diverse Rare Sample Generation with Pretrained GANs

Deep generative models are proficient in generating realistic data but struggle with producing rare samples in low density regions due to their scarcity of training datasets and the mode collapse problem. While recent methods aim to improve the fidelity of generated samples, they often reduce diversity and coverage by ignoring rare and novel samples. This study proposes a novel approach for generating diverse rare samples from high-resolution image datasets with pretrained GANs. Our method employs gradient-based optimization of latent vectors within a multi-objective framework and utilizes normalizing flows for density estimation on the feature space. This enables the generation of diverse rare images, with controllable parameters for rarity, diversity, and similarity to a reference image. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach both qualitatively and quantitatively across various datasets and GANs without retraining or fine-tuning the pretrained GANs.

xPatch: Dual-Stream Time Series Forecasting with Exponential Seasonal-Trend Decomposition

In recent years, the application of transformer-based models in time-series forecasting has received significant attention. While often demonstrating promising results, the transformer architecture encounters challenges in fully exploiting the temporal relations within time series data due to its attention mechanism. In this work, we design eXponential Patch (xPatch for short), a novel dual-stream architecture that utilizes exponential decomposition. Inspired by the classical exponential smoothing approaches, xPatch introduces the innovative seasonal-trend exponential decomposition module. Additionally, we propose a dual-flow architecture that consists of an MLP-based linear stream and a CNN-based non-linear stream. This model investigates the benefits of employing patching and channel-independence techniques within a non-transformer model. Finally, we develop a robust arctangent loss function and a sigmoid learning rate adjustment scheme, which prevent overfitting and boost forecasting performance. The code is available at the following repository: https://github.com/stitsyuk/xPatch.

Memorizing Documents with Guidance in Large Language Models

Training data plays a pivotal role in AI models. Large language models (LLMs) are trained with massive amounts of documents, and their parameters hold document-related contents. Recently, several studies identified content-specific locations in LLMs by examining the parameters. Instead of the post hoc interpretation, we propose another approach. We propose document-wise memory architecture to track document memories in training. The proposed architecture maps document representations to memory entries, which softly mask memories in the forward process of LLMs. Additionally, we propose document guidance loss, which increases the likelihood of text with document memories and reduces the likelihood of the text with the memories of other documents. Experimental results on Wikitext-103-v1 with Pythia-1B show that the proposed methods provide different memory entries for documents and high recall of document-related content in generation with trained document-wise memories.

Towards Dynamic Trend Filtering through Trend Point Detection with Reinforcement Learning

Trend filtering simplifies complex time series data by applying smoothness to filter out noise while emphasizing proximity to the original data. However, existing trend filtering methods fail to reflect abrupt changes in the trend due to `approximateness,' resulting in constant smoothness. This approximateness uniformly filters out the tail distribution of time series data, characterized by extreme values, including both abrupt changes and noise. In this paper, we propose Trend Point Detection formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), a novel approach to identifying essential points that should be reflected in the trend, departing from approximations. We term these essential points as Dynamic Trend Points (DTPs) and extract trends by interpolating them. To identify DTPs, we utilize Reinforcement Learning (RL) within a discrete action space and a forecasting sum-of-squares loss function as a reward, referred to as the Dynamic Trend Filtering network (DTF-net). DTF-net integrates flexible noise filtering, preserving critical original subsequences while removing noise as required for other subsequences. We demonstrate that DTF-net excels at capturing abrupt changes compared to other trend filtering algorithms and enhances forecasting performance, as abrupt changes are predicted rather than smoothed out.