PACER: Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator

Climate models serve as critical tools for evaluating the effects of climate change and projecting future climate scenarios. However, the reliance on numerical simulations of physical equations renders them computationally intensive and inefficient. While deep learning methodologies have made significant progress in weather forecasting, they are still unstable for climate emulation tasks. Here, we propose PACER, a lightweight 684K parameter Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator. PACER emulates temperature and precipitation stably for 86 years while only being trained on greenhouse gas emissions data. We incorporate a fundamental physical law of advection-diffusion in PACER accounting for boundary conditions and empirically estimating the diffusion co-efficient and flow velocities from emissions data. PACER has been trained on 15 climate models provided by ClimateSet outperforming baselines across most of the climate models and advancing a new state of the art in a climate diagnostic task.

PACE: Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator

Climate models serve as critical tools for evaluating the effects of climate change and projecting future climate scenarios. However, the reliance on numerical simulations of physical equations renders them computationally intensive and inefficient. While deep learning methodologies have made significant progress in weather forecasting, they are still unstable for climate emulation tasks. Here, we propose PACE, a lightweight 684K parameter Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator. PACE emulates temperature and precipitation stably for 86 years while only being trained on greenhouse gas emissions data. We incorporate a fundamental physical law of advection-diffusion in PACE accounting for boundary conditions and empirically estimating the diffusion co-efficient and flow velocities from emissions data. PACE has been trained on 15 climate models provided by ClimateSet outperforming baselines across most of the climate models and advancing a new state of the art in a climate diagnostic task.

XXLTraffic: Expanding and Extremely Long Traffic Dataset for Ultra-Dynamic Forecasting Challenges

Traffic forecasting is crucial for smart cities and intelligent transportation initiatives, where deep learning has made significant progress in modeling complex spatio-temporal patterns in recent years. However, current public datasets have limitations in reflecting the ultra-dynamic nature of real-world scenarios, characterized by continuously evolving infrastructures, varying temporal distributions, and temporal gaps due to sensor downtimes or changes in traffic patterns. These limitations inevitably restrict the practical applicability of existing traffic forecasting datasets. To bridge this gap, we present XXLTraffic, the largest available public traffic dataset with the longest timespan and increasing number of sensor nodes over the multiple years observed in the data, curated to support research in ultra-dynamic forecasting. Our benchmark includes both typical time-series forecasting settings with hourly and daily aggregated data and novel configurations that introduce gaps and down-sample the training size to better simulate practical constraints. We anticipate the new XXLTraffic will provide a fresh perspective for the time-series and traffic forecasting communities. It would also offer a robust platform for developing and evaluating models designed to tackle ultra-dynamic and extremely long forecasting problems. Our dataset supplements existing spatio-temporal data resources and leads to new research directions in this domain.

Enhancing Spatio-temporal Quantile Forecasting with Curriculum Learning: Lessons Learned

Training models on spatio-temporal (ST) data poses an open problem due to the complicated and diverse nature of the data itself, and it is challenging to ensure the model's performance directly trained on the original ST data. While limiting the variety of training data can make training easier, it can also lead to a lack of knowledge and information for the model, resulting in a decrease in performance. To address this challenge, we presented an innovative paradigm that incorporates three separate forms of curriculum learning specifically targeting from spatial, temporal, and quantile perspectives. Furthermore, our framework incorporates a stacking fusion module to combine diverse information from three types of curriculum learning, resulting in a strong and thorough learning process. We demonstrated the effectiveness of this framework with extensive empirical evaluations, highlighting its better performance in addressing complex ST challenges. We provided thorough ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of our curriculum and to explain how it contributes to the improvement of learning efficiency on ST data.

T-JEPA: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for Trajectory Similarity Computation

Trajectory similarity computation is an essential technique for analyzing moving patterns of spatial data across various applications such as traffic management, wildlife tracking, and location-based services. Modern methods often apply deep learning techniques to approximate heuristic metrics but struggle to learn more robust and generalized representations from the vast amounts of unlabeled trajectory data. Recent approaches focus on self-supervised learning methods such as contrastive learning, which have made significant advancements in trajectory representation learning. However, contrastive learning-based methods heavily depend on manually pre-defined data augmentation schemes, limiting the diversity of generated trajectories and resulting in learning from such variations in 2D Euclidean space, which prevents capturing high-level semantic variations. To address these limitations, we propose T-JEPA, a self-supervised trajectory similarity computation method employing Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) to enhance trajectory representation learning. T-JEPA samples and predicts trajectory information in representation space, enabling the model to infer the missing components of trajectories at high-level semantics without relying on domain knowledge or manual effort. Extensive experiments conducted on three urban trajectory datasets and two Foursquare datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of T-JEPA in trajectory similarity computation.

Spectraformer: A Unified Random Feature Framework for Transformer

Linearization of attention using various kernel approximation and kernel learning techniques has shown promise. Past methods use a subset of combinations of component functions and weight matrices within the random features paradigm. We identify the need for a systematic comparison of different combinations of weight matrix and component functions for attention learning in Transformer. In this work, we introduce Spectraformer, a unified framework for approximating and learning the kernel function in linearized attention of the Transformer. We experiment with broad classes of component functions and weight matrices for three textual tasks in the LRA benchmark. Our experimentation with multiple combinations of component functions and weight matrices leads us to a novel combination with 23.4% faster training time and 25.2% lower memory consumption over the previous SOTA random feature Transformer, while maintaining the performance, as compared to the Original Transformer. Our code is available at: https://github.com/dukeraphaelng/spectraformer .

Conformer: Embedding Continuous Attention in Vision Transformer for Weather Forecasting

Operational weather forecasting system relies on computationally expensive physics-based models. Although Transformers-based models have shown remarkable potential in weather forecasting, Transformers are discrete models which limit their ability to learn the continuous spatio-temporal features of the dynamical weather system. We address this issue with Conformer, a spatio-temporal Continuous Vision Transformer for weather forecasting. Conformer is designed to learn the continuous weather evolution over time by implementing continuity in the multi-head attention mechanism. The attention mechanism is encoded as a differentiable function in the transformer architecture to model the complex weather dynamics. We evaluate Conformer against a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and several deep learning based weather forecasting models. Conformer outperforms some of the existing data-driven models at all lead times while only being trained at lower resolution data.

SCONE-GAN: Semantic Contrastive learning-based Generative Adversarial Network for an end-to-end image translation

SCONE-GAN presents an end-to-end image translation, which is shown to be effective for learning to generate realistic and diverse scenery images. Most current image-to-image translation approaches are devised as two mappings: a translation from the source to target domain and another to represent its inverse. While successful in many applications, these approaches may suffer from generating trivial solutions with limited diversity. That is because these methods learn more frequent associations rather than the scene structures. To mitigate the problem, we propose SCONE-GAN that utilises graph convolutional networks to learn the objects dependencies, maintain the image structure and preserve its semantics while transferring images into the target domain. For more realistic and diverse image generation we introduce style reference image. We enforce the model to maximize the mutual information between the style image and output. The proposed method explicitly maximizes the mutual information between the related patches, thus encouraging the generator to produce more diverse images. We validate the proposed algorithm for image-to-image translation and stylizing outdoor images. Both qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on four dataset.

Latent Masking for Multimodal Self-supervised Learning in Health Timeseries

Limited availability of labeled data for machine learning on biomedical time-series hampers progress in the field. Self-supervised learning (SSL) is a promising approach to learning data representations without labels. However, current SSL methods require expensive computations for negative pairs and are designed for single modalities, limiting their versatility. To overcome these limitations, we introduce CroSSL (Cross-modal SSL). CroSSL introduces two novel concepts: masking intermediate embeddings from modality-specific encoders and aggregating them into a global embedding using a cross-modal aggregator. This enables the handling of missing modalities and end-to-end learning of cross-modal patterns without prior data preprocessing or time-consuming negative-pair sampling. We evaluate CroSSL on various multimodal time-series benchmarks, including both medical-grade and consumer biosignals. Our results demonstrate superior performance compared to previous SSL techniques and supervised benchmarks with minimal labeled data. We additionally analyze the impact of different masking ratios and strategies and assess the robustness of the learned representations to missing modalities. Overall, our work achieves state-of-the-art performance while highlighting the benefits of masking latent embeddings for cross-modal learning in temporal health data.

Multimodal Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

Trajectory prediction is an important task to support safe and intelligent behaviours in autonomous systems. Many advanced approaches have been proposed over the years with improved spatial and temporal feature extraction. However, human behaviour is naturally multimodal and uncertain: given the past trajectory and surrounding environment information, an agent can have multiple plausible trajectories in the future. To tackle this problem, an essential task named multimodal trajectory prediction (MTP) has recently been studied, which aims to generate a diverse, acceptable and explainable distribution of future predictions for each agent. In this paper, we present the first survey for MTP with our unique taxonomies and comprehensive analysis of frameworks, datasets and evaluation metrics. In addition, we discuss multiple future directions that can help researchers develop novel multimodal trajectory prediction systems.