TS-Fault: Benchmarking Time Series Forecasters Against Structural Faults

Time series forecasting (TSF) underpins consequential decisions in energy, transportation, finance, and healthcare, yet TSF models are almost universally ranked by a single number (e.g., average error) on clean held-out data, under the implicit assumption that it predicts deployed reliability. However, real faults are not i.i.d noise but structured events with temporal shape, broken cross-variable dependencies, regime change coupled with missingness, and causal propagation across a sensing pipeline. Treating TSF robustness as a data-quality problem, we present TS-Fault, a benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under explicit, parameterized fault scenarios with controllable semantic difficulty. TS-Fault organizes recurring failures into four modes along two orthogonal axes (observation- vs mechanism-level; univariate vs multivariate) and injects each fault into the most prediction-critical window via a unified importance score. This design enables robustness to be tested against the structures models actually rely on, rather than reduced to generic noise sensitivity. We evaluate 21 models across 6 datasets, 4 modes, and 5 difficulty levels under a paired clean/corrupt protocol. The results reveal three findings that contradict common leaderboard intuition: (i) clean-data accuracy anti-correlates with robustness; (ii) clean rankings are preserved under observation-level faults but reshuffled under mechanism-level faults; and (iii) all catastrophic failures occur under mechanism-level faults, with foundation models achieving the highest clean-data accuracy yet exhibiting the greatest fragility. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Ray-zyy/TS-Fault.

Evaluating LLM Personalization via Semantic Constraint Verification

Current evaluation paradigms for Large Language Model (LLM) personalization rely heavily on brittle surface-matching metrics or computationally expensive LLM-as-a-judge protocols, both of which lack interpretability. To address these limitations, we introduce Natural Language Inference Constraint Verification (NLICV), a scalable, semantically invariant framework that maps sentence meanings to truth-condition sets to verify personalization constraints via a Natural Language Inference (NLI) model. Moving beyond binary scoring, NLICV categorizes LLM behaviors into four distinct modes: personalization, generalization, sycophancy, and failure. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NLICV aligns closely with human annotations while drastically reducing the latency and token costs associated with LLM judges (up to 2100 inference speedup). Finally, through an ablation-based procedure, NLICV pinpoints the exact sentences driving the constraint verification, yielding faithful, understandable evidence for its evaluations.

Knowledge Graph Enhanced Memory-Augmented Retrieval for Long Context Modeling

Long-context language modeling requires not only extending context windows but maintaining coherent understanding of entity states and relationships across thousands of tokens -- a challenge that semantic similarity alone cannot address. KGERMAR addresses this by constructing dynamic, context-specific knowledge graphs from input text during inference, enabling domain-adaptive retrieval that leverages both semantic similarity and explicit entity relationships. The framework performs real-time entity and relation extraction to build contextual knowledge graphs, then integrates graph-structural embeddings with textual semantics through a multi-component memory architecture. Three memory banks -- contextual, semantic, and structural -- are maintained with retrieval signals fused via learned weights to capture both surface-level semantics and deeper relational patterns. Evaluated on SlimPajama (84.7K training examples), WikiText-103 (4,358 examples), PG-19 (100 examples), and Proof-pile (46.3K examples), KGERMAR achieves up to 8.5\% lower perplexity and 2--2.5x better memory efficiency than memory-augmented baselines across context lengths from 1K to 32K tokens, with superior in-context learning performance across five NLU tasks. The dynamic knowledge graph construction approach advances memory-augmented language modeling by enabling domain-specific knowledge representation that adapts to input contexts rather than relying on fixed knowledge bases.

UPLOTS: A Unified Pretrained Language Model for Constrained Time-series Generation

In time-series generation, existing approaches typically handcraft ortrain a separate model for each dataset, which hinders their scalability and fails to leverage shared temporal structures across domains. To address this fragmentation, we propose UPLOTS, a Unified, Prompt-guided Language model framework fOr constrained Time-Series Generation across diverse domains. Instead of building task-specific models, UPLOTS leverages a single pre-trained transformer backbone guided by learned constraint prompts, enabling on-demand generation with precise pattern control. One key innovation is our dynamic multi-dataset loss re-weighting and prompt-to-pattern mapping, which allows UPLOTS to internalize diverse temporal structures during training and conditionally generate them at inference. We evaluate UPLOTS on four real-world benchmarks and multiple constraint settings, including peak-period, calendar, load-level, and volatility patterns. Additional held-out constraint-combination and downstream forecasting experiments further demonstrate that UPLOTS generalizes beyond the original peak-pattern setting and improves data augmentation under scarce real-data regimes. Our code and baselines are available at anonymous github repo: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/UPLOTS-6C36.

An Infectious Disease Spread Simulation Based on Large Language Model Decision Making

Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.

From XXLTraffic to EvoXXLTraffic: Scaling Traffic Forecasting to Sensor-Evolving Networks

Existing traffic forecasting benchmarks assume a fixed sensor set, but real road-sensor networks grow continuously as the road network changes year by year. We introduce the XXLTraffic dataset family, which spans up to 27 years of California PeMS and Transport for NSW data. The fixed-sensor subsets of XXLTraffic support extremely long forecasting with multi-year gaps and standard hourly / daily long-horizon forecasting. We extend it to EvoXXLTraffic, a sensor-evolving reorganization that exposes per-year active sensors, yearly traffic-flow matrices, and yearly graph snapshots across nine PeMS districts, with growth ratios ranging from +305% to over +10,000%. We define a yearly streaming forecasting protocol on EvoXXLTraffic in which each calendar year is a continual task, and benchmark a wide range of representative baselines drawn from static spatio-temporal GNNs, naïve online schemes, evolving-graph continual methods, and retrieval / test-time methods. We find that our ultra-large evolutionary dataset better reflects the real world, and many state-of-the-art (SOTA) results no longer work. Our dataset complements existing benchmarks by enabling more realistic forecasting under ultra-long evolutionary road networks.

AnyMo: Geometry-Aware Setup-Agnostic Modeling of Human Motion in the Wild

As wearable and mobile devices become increasingly embedded in daily life, they offer a practical way to continuously sense human motion in the wild. But inertial signals are highly dependent on the sensing setup, including body location, mounting position, sensor orientation, device hardware, and sampling protocol. This setup dependence makes it difficult to learn motion representations that transfer across devices and datasets, and limits the broader use of wearable IMUs beyond closed-set recognition. We introduce AnyMo, a geometry-aware framework for setup-agnostic human motion modeling. AnyMo uses physics-grounded IMU simulation over dense body-surface placements to generate diverse and plausible synthetic signals, pre-trains a graph encoder from paired synthetic placement views and masked partial observations, tokenizes multi-position IMU into full-body motion tokens, and aligns these tokens with an LLM for motion-language understanding. We evaluate AnyMo on three complementary tasks: zero-shot activity recognition across 14 unseen downstream datasets, cross-modal retrieval, and wearable IMU motion captioning, where it improves average Accuracy/F1/R@2 by 11.7\%/11.6\%/22.6\% on HAR, increases zero-shot IMU-to-text and text-to-IMU retrieval MRR by 15.9\% and 28.6\%, respectively, and improves zero-shot captioning BERT-F1 by 18.8\%. These results support AnyMo as a generalist model for wearable motion understanding in the wild. Project page: https://baiyuchen.com/project/AnyMo.

MAGE: Multi-Agent Self-Evolution with Co-Evolutionary Knowledge Graphs

Self-evolving language-model agents must decide what to learn next and how to preserve what they have learned across iterations. Existing systems typically carry this cross-iteration knowledge as natural-language feedback, flat episodic memory, or implicit reinforcement signals, none of which cleanly supports a frozen weak backbone at inference time. This paper introduces MAGE (Multi-Agent Graph-guided Evolution), a framework that externalizes self-knowledge into a four-subgraph co-evolutionary knowledge graph. Its experience subgraph stores both teacher-written failure corrections and the learner's own past correct reasoning traces, which are retrieved as task-conditioned guidance for a frozen execution model. During evolution, the graph, a task-level search bandit, and a skill-level routing bandit are updated from the same reward stream, while the learner's backbone remains unchanged. We further provide structural analysis showing how append-only memory growth, bounded curriculum coverage, and task-filtered retrieval together support stable improvement of the retrieval substrate for frozen-learner evolution. Across nine benchmarks spanning mathematical reasoning, multi-hop and open-domain question answering, spatio-temporal analysis, financial numerical reasoning, medical multiple-choice, an open-world survival game, and web navigation, MAGE achieves strong performance against prompt-based frozen-backbone baselines. Ablations show that self-harvested success traces and teacher-written corrections are complementary, with success memories contributing most on reasoning-template-heavy tasks and corrective memories supporting harder composition and interaction settings.

Route by State, Recover from Trace: STAR with Failure-Aware Markov Routing for Multi-Agent Spatiotemporal Reasoning

Compositional spatiotemporal reasoning often requires a system to invoke multiple heterogeneous specialists, such as geometric, temporal, topological, and trajectory agents. A central question is how such a system should route among specialists when execution does not simply succeed or fail, but fails in qualitatively different ways. Existing tool-augmented and multi-agent LLM systems typically leave this routing decision implicit in language generation, making recovery ad hoc, difficult to interpret, and hard to optimize. This paper presents STAR (Spatio-Temporal Agent Router), a failure-aware routing framework that externalizes inter-agent control as a state-conditioned transition policy over the current agent, task type, and typed execution status. At the center of STARis an agent routing matrix that combines expert-specified nominal routes with recovery transitions learned from execution traces. Because the matrix conditions on distinct failure states, the router can respond differently to malformed outputs, missing dependencies, and tool--query mismatches, rather than collapsing them into a generic retry signal. Specialists execute through a tool-grounded extract--compute--deposit protocol and write intermediate results to a shared blackboard for downstream fusion. Results prove that retaining unsuccessful traces during training enlarges the support of the routing policy on error states, enabling recovery transitions that success-only training cannot represent. Across three spatiotemporal benchmarks and eight backbone LLMs, STAR improves over multiple baselines with the clearest gains on queries whose execution deviates from the nominal routing path. Router-specific ablations and recovery analyses further show that typed failure-aware routing, rather than specialist composition alone, is a key factor for these improvements.

DeepLévy: Learning Heavy-Tailed Uncertainty in Highly Volatile Time Series

Modeling uncertainty in heavy-tailed time series remains a critical challenge for deep probabilistic forecasting models, which often struggle to capture abrupt, extreme events. While Lévy stable distributions offer a natural framework for modeling such non-Gaussian behaviors, the intractability of their probability density functions severely limits conventional likelihood-based inference. To address this, we introduce DeepLévy, a neural framework that learns mixtures of Lévy stable distributions by minimizing the discrepancy between empirical and parametric characteristic functions. DeepLévy incorporates a mixture mechanism that adaptively learns context-dependent weights and parameters over multiple Lévy components, enabling flexible multi-horizon uncertainty modeling. Evaluations on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DeepLévy outperforms state-of-the-art deep probabilistic forecasting approaches in tail risk metrics, especially under extreme volatility.