Resolution-Agnostic Transformer-based Climate Downscaling

Understanding future weather changes at regional and local scales is crucial for planning and decision-making, particularly in the context of extreme weather events, as well as for broader applications in agriculture, insurance, and infrastructure development. However, the computational cost of downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs) to the fine resolutions needed for such applications presents a significant barrier. Drawing on advancements in weather forecasting models, this study introduces a cost-efficient downscaling method using a pretrained Earth Vision Transformer (Earth ViT) model. Initially trained on ERA5 data to downscale from 50 km to 25 km resolution, the model is then tested on the higher resolution BARRA-SY dataset at a 3 km resolution. Remarkably, it performs well without additional training, demonstrating its ability to generalize across different resolutions. This approach holds promise for generating large ensembles of regional climate simulations by downscaling GCMs with varying input resolutions without incurring additional training costs. Ultimately, this method could provide more comprehensive estimates of potential future changes in key climate variables, aiding in effective planning for extreme weather events and climate change adaptation strategies.

PACER: Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator

Climate models serve as critical tools for evaluating the effects of climate change and projecting future climate scenarios. However, the reliance on numerical simulations of physical equations renders them computationally intensive and inefficient. While deep learning methodologies have made significant progress in weather forecasting, they are still unstable for climate emulation tasks. Here, we propose PACER, a lightweight 684K parameter Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator. PACER emulates temperature and precipitation stably for 86 years while only being trained on greenhouse gas emissions data. We incorporate a fundamental physical law of advection-diffusion in PACER accounting for boundary conditions and empirically estimating the diffusion co-efficient and flow velocities from emissions data. PACER has been trained on 15 climate models provided by ClimateSet outperforming baselines across most of the climate models and advancing a new state of the art in a climate diagnostic task.

PACE: Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator

Climate models serve as critical tools for evaluating the effects of climate change and projecting future climate scenarios. However, the reliance on numerical simulations of physical equations renders them computationally intensive and inefficient. While deep learning methodologies have made significant progress in weather forecasting, they are still unstable for climate emulation tasks. Here, we propose PACE, a lightweight 684K parameter Physics Informed Uncertainty Aware Climate Emulator. PACE emulates temperature and precipitation stably for 86 years while only being trained on greenhouse gas emissions data. We incorporate a fundamental physical law of advection-diffusion in PACE accounting for boundary conditions and empirically estimating the diffusion co-efficient and flow velocities from emissions data. PACE has been trained on 15 climate models provided by ClimateSet outperforming baselines across most of the climate models and advancing a new state of the art in a climate diagnostic task.

Conformer: Embedding Continuous Attention in Vision Transformer for Weather Forecasting

Operational weather forecasting system relies on computationally expensive physics-based models. Although Transformers-based models have shown remarkable potential in weather forecasting, Transformers are discrete models which limit their ability to learn the continuous spatio-temporal features of the dynamical weather system. We address this issue with Conformer, a spatio-temporal Continuous Vision Transformer for weather forecasting. Conformer is designed to learn the continuous weather evolution over time by implementing continuity in the multi-head attention mechanism. The attention mechanism is encoded as a differentiable function in the transformer architecture to model the complex weather dynamics. We evaluate Conformer against a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and several deep learning based weather forecasting models. Conformer outperforms some of the existing data-driven models at all lead times while only being trained at lower resolution data.