DRAN: A Distribution and Relation Adaptive Network for Spatio-temporal Forecasting

Accurate predictions of spatio-temporal systems' states are crucial for tasks such as system management, control, and crisis prevention. However, the inherent time variance of spatio-temporal systems poses challenges to achieving accurate predictions whenever stationarity is not granted. To address non-stationarity frameworks, we propose a Distribution and Relation Adaptive Network (DRAN) capable of dynamically adapting to relation and distribution changes over time. While temporal normalization and de-normalization are frequently used techniques to adapt to distribution shifts, this operation is not suitable for the spatio-temporal context as temporal normalization scales the time series of nodes and possibly disrupts the spatial relations among nodes. In order to address this problem, we develop a Spatial Factor Learner (SFL) module that enables the normalization and de-normalization process in spatio-temporal systems. To adapt to dynamic changes in spatial relationships among sensors, we propose a Dynamic-Static Fusion Learner (DSFL) module that effectively integrates features learned from both dynamic and static relations through an adaptive fusion ratio mechanism. Furthermore, we introduce a Stochastic Learner to capture the noisy components of spatio-temporal representations. Our approach outperforms state of the art methods in weather prediction and traffic flows forecasting tasks. Experimental results show that our SFL efficiently preserves spatial relationships across various temporal normalization operations. Visualizations of the learned dynamic and static relations demonstrate that DSFL can capture both local and distant relationships between nodes. Moreover, ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of each component.

Learning to Predict Global Atrial Fibrillation Dynamics from Sparse Measurements

Catheter ablation of Atrial Fibrillation (AF) consists of a one-size-fits-all treatment with limited success in persistent AF. This may be due to our inability to map the dynamics of AF with the limited resolution and coverage provided by sequential contact mapping catheters, preventing effective patient phenotyping for personalised, targeted ablation. Here we introduce FibMap, a graph recurrent neural network model that reconstructs global AF dynamics from sparse measurements. Trained and validated on 51 non-contact whole atria recordings, FibMap reconstructs whole atria dynamics from 10% surface coverage, achieving a 210% lower mean absolute error and an order of magnitude higher performance in tracking phase singularities compared to baseline methods. Clinical utility of FibMap is demonstrated on real-world contact mapping recordings, achieving reconstruction fidelity comparable to non-contact mapping. FibMap's state-spaces and patient-specific parameters offer insights for electrophenotyping AF. Integrating FibMap into clinical practice could enable personalised AF care and improve outcomes.

Relational Conformal Prediction for Correlated Time Series

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for obtaining point estimates from spatiotemporal data and correlated time series. However, the problem of exploiting relational structures to estimate the uncertainty of such predictions has been largely overlooked in the same context. To this end, we propose a novel distribution-free approach based on the conformal prediction framework and quantile regression. Despite the recent applications of conformal prediction to sequential data, existing methods operate independently on each target time series and do not account for relationships among them when constructing the prediction interval. We fill this void by introducing a novel conformal prediction method based on graph deep learning operators. Our method, named Conformal Relational Prediction (CoRel), does not require the relational structure (graph) to be known as a prior and can be applied on top of any pre-trained time series predictor. Additionally, CoRel includes an adaptive component to handle non-exchangeable data and changes in the input time series. Our approach provides accurate coverage and archives state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification in relevant benchmarks.

On the Regularization of Learnable Embeddings for Time Series Processing

In processing multiple time series, accounting for the individual features of each sequence can be challenging. To address this, modern deep learning methods for time series analysis combine a shared (global) model with local layers, specific to each time series, often implemented as learnable embeddings. Ideally, these local embeddings should encode meaningful representations of the unique dynamics of each sequence. However, when these are learned end-to-end as parameters of a forecasting model, they may end up acting as mere sequence identifiers. Shared processing blocks may then become reliant on such identifiers, limiting their transferability to new contexts. In this paper, we address this issue by investigating methods to regularize the learning of local learnable embeddings for time series processing. Specifically, we perform the first extensive empirical study on the subject and show how such regularizations consistently improve performance in widely adopted architectures. Furthermore, we show that methods preventing the co-adaptation of local and global parameters are particularly effective in this context. This hypothesis is validated by comparing several methods preventing the downstream models from relying on sequence identifiers, going as far as completely resetting the embeddings during training. The obtained results provide an important contribution to understanding the interplay between learnable local parameters and shared processing layers: a key challenge in modern time series processing models and a step toward developing effective foundation models for time series.

Learning Latent Graph Structures and their Uncertainty

Within a prediction task, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) use relational information as an inductive bias to enhance the model's accuracy. As task-relevant relations might be unknown, graph structure learning approaches have been proposed to learn them while solving the downstream prediction task. In this paper, we demonstrate that minimization of a point-prediction loss function, e.g., the mean absolute error, does not guarantee proper learning of the latent relational information and its associated uncertainty. Conversely, we prove that a suitable loss function on the stochastic model outputs simultaneously grants (i) the unknown adjacency matrix latent distribution and (ii) optimal performance on the prediction task. Finally, we propose a sampling-based method that solves this joint learning task. Empirical results validate our theoretical claims and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Temporal Graph ODEs for Irregularly-Sampled Time Series

Modern graph representation learning works mostly under the assumption of dealing with regularly sampled temporal graph snapshots, which is far from realistic, e.g., social networks and physical systems are characterized by continuous dynamics and sporadic observations. To address this limitation, we introduce the Temporal Graph Ordinary Differential Equation (TG-ODE) framework, which learns both the temporal and spatial dynamics from graph streams where the intervals between observations are not regularly spaced. We empirically validate the proposed approach on several graph benchmarks, showing that TG-ODE can achieve state-of-the-art performance in irregular graph stream tasks.

Graph-based Virtual Sensing from Sparse and Partial Multivariate Observations

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Graph-based Forecasting with Missing Data through Spatiotemporal Downsampling

Given a set of synchronous time series, each associated with a sensor-point in space and characterized by inter-series relationships, the problem of spatiotemporal forecasting consists of predicting future observations for each point. Spatiotemporal graph neural networks achieve striking results by representing the relationships across time series as a graph. Nonetheless, most existing methods rely on the often unrealistic assumption that inputs are always available and fail to capture hidden spatiotemporal dynamics when part of the data is missing. In this work, we tackle this problem through hierarchical spatiotemporal downsampling. The input time series are progressively coarsened over time and space, obtaining a pool of representations that capture heterogeneous temporal and spatial dynamics. Conditioned on observations and missing data patterns, such representations are combined by an interpretable attention mechanism to generate the forecasts. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world benchmarks under different missing data distributions, particularly in the presence of contiguous blocks of missing values.

Graph Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. Approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: Forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and, finally, discuss mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting both the foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.