Advancing Geological Carbon Storage Monitoring With 3d Digital Shadow Technology

Geological Carbon Storage (GCS) is a key technology for achieving global climate goals by capturing and storing CO2 in deep geological formations. Its effectiveness and safety rely on accurate monitoring of subsurface CO2 migration using advanced time-lapse seismic imaging. A Digital Shadow framework integrates field data, including seismic and borehole measurements, to track CO2 saturation over time. Machine learning-assisted data assimilation techniques, such as generative AI and nonlinear ensemble Bayesian filtering, update a digital model of the CO2 plume while incorporating uncertainties in reservoir properties. Compared to 2D approaches, 3D monitoring enhances the spatial accuracy of GCS assessments, capturing the full extent of CO2 migration. This study extends the uncertainty-aware 2D Digital Shadow framework by incorporating 3D seismic imaging and reservoir modeling, improving decision-making and risk mitigation in CO2 storage projects.

Development and Application of Self-Supervised Machine Learning for Smoke Plume and Active Fire Identification from the FIREX-AQ Datasets

Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) was a field campaign aimed at better understanding the impact of wildfires and agricultural fires on air quality and climate. The FIREX-AQ campaign took place in August 2019 and involved two aircraft and multiple coordinated satellite observations. This study applied and evaluated a self-supervised machine learning (ML) method for the active fire and smoke plume identification and tracking in the satellite and sub-orbital remote sensing datasets collected during the campaign. Our unique methodology combines remote sensing observations with different spatial and spectral resolutions. The demonstrated approach successfully differentiates fire pixels and smoke plumes from background imagery, enabling the generation of a per-instrument smoke and fire mask product, as well as smoke and fire masks created from the fusion of selected data from independent instruments. This ML approach has a potential to enhance operational wildfire monitoring systems and improve decision-making in air quality management through fast smoke plume identification12 and tracking and could improve climate impact studies through fusion data from independent instruments.

Detection and tracking of gas plumes in LWIR hyperspectral video sequence data

Automated detection of chemical plumes presents a segmentation challenge. The segmentation problem for gas plumes is difficult due to the diffusive nature of the cloud. The advantage of considering hyperspectral images in the gas plume detection problem over the conventional RGB imagery is the presence of non-visual data, allowing for a richer representation of information. In this paper we present an effective method of visualizing hyperspectral video sequences containing chemical plumes and investigate the effectiveness of segmentation techniques on these post-processed videos. Our approach uses a combination of dimension reduction and histogram equalization to prepare the hyperspectral videos for segmentation. First, Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimension of the entire video sequence. This is done by projecting each pixel onto the first few Principal Components resulting in a type of spectral filter. Next, a Midway method for histogram equalization is used. These methods redistribute the intensity values in order to reduce flicker between frames. This properly prepares these high-dimensional video sequences for more traditional segmentation techniques. We compare the ability of various clustering techniques to properly segment the chemical plume. These include K-means, spectral clustering, and the Ginzburg-Landau functional.

Fire Dynamic Vision: Image Segmentation and Tracking for Multi-Scale Fire and Plume Behavior

The increasing frequency and severity of wildfires highlight the need for accurate fire and plume spread models. We introduce an approach that effectively isolates and tracks fire and plume behavior across various spatial and temporal scales and image types, identifying physical phenomena in the system and providing insights useful for developing and validating models. Our method combines image segmentation and graph theory to delineate fire fronts and plume boundaries. We demonstrate that the method effectively distinguishes fires and plumes from visually similar objects. Results demonstrate the successful isolation and tracking of fire and plume dynamics across various image sources, ranging from synoptic-scale ($10^4$-$10^5$ m) satellite images to sub-microscale ($10^0$-$10^1$ m) images captured close to the fire environment. Furthermore, the methodology leverages image inpainting and spatio-temporal dataset generation for use in statistical and machine learning models.

Fish-inspired tracking of underwater turbulent plumes

Autonomous ocean-exploring vehicles have begun to take advantage of onboard sensor measurements of water properties such as salinity and temperature to locate oceanic features in real time. Such targeted sampling strategies enable more rapid study of ocean environments by actively steering towards areas of high scientific value. Inspired by the ability of aquatic animals to navigate via flow sensing, this work investigates hydrodynamic cues for accomplishing targeted sampling using a palm-sized robotic swimmer. As proof-of-concept analogy for tracking hydrothermal vent plumes in the ocean, the robot is tasked with locating the center of turbulent jet flows in a 13,000-liter water tank using data from onboard pressure sensors. To learn a navigation strategy, we first implemented Reinforcement Learning (RL) on a simulated version of the robot navigating in proximity to turbulent jets. After training, the RL algorithm discovered an effective strategy for locating the jets by following transverse velocity gradients sensed by pressure sensors located on opposite sides of the robot. When implemented on the physical robot, this gradient following strategy enabled the robot to successfully locate the turbulent plumes at more than twice the rate of random searching. Additionally, we found that navigation performance improved as the distance between the pressure sensors increased, which can inform the design of distributed flow sensors in ocean robots. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness and limits of flow-based navigation for autonomously locating hydrodynamic features of interest.

Inference of CO2 flow patterns -- a feasibility study

As the global deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology intensifies in the fight against climate change, it becomes increasingly imperative to establish robust monitoring and detection mechanisms for potential underground CO2 leakage, particularly through pre-existing or induced faults in the storage reservoir's seals. While techniques such as history matching and time-lapse seismic monitoring of CO2 storage have been used successfully in tracking the evolution of CO2 plumes in the subsurface, these methods lack principled approaches to characterize uncertainties related to the CO2 plumes' behavior. Inclusion of systematic assessment of uncertainties is essential for risk mitigation for the following reasons: (i) CO2 plume-induced changes are small and seismic data is noisy; (ii) changes between regular and irregular (e.g., caused by leakage) flow patterns are small; and (iii) the reservoir properties that control the flow are strongly heterogeneous and typically only available as distributions. To arrive at a formulation capable of inferring flow patterns for regular and irregular flow from well and seismic data, the performance of conditional normalizing flow will be analyzed on a series of carefully designed numerical experiments. While the inferences presented are preliminary in the context of an early CO2 leakage detection system, the results do indicate that inferences with conditional normalizing flows can produce high-fidelity estimates for CO2 plumes with or without leakage. We are also confident that the inferred uncertainty is reasonable because it correlates well with the observed errors. This uncertainty stems from noise in the seismic data and from the lack of precise knowledge of the reservoir's fluid flow properties.

Reduced-order modeling for parameterized large-eddy simulations of atmospheric pollutant dispersion

Mapping near-field pollutant concentration is essential to track accidental toxic plume dispersion in urban areas. By solving a large part of the turbulence spectrum, large-eddy simulations (LES) have the potential to accurately represent pollutant concentration spatial variability. Finding a way to synthesize this large amount of information to improve the accuracy of lower-fidelity operational models (e.g. providing better turbulence closure terms) is particularly appealing. This is a challenge in multi-query contexts, where LES become prohibitively costly to deploy to understand how plume flow and tracer dispersion change with various atmospheric and source parameters. To overcome this issue, we propose a non-intrusive reduced-order model combining proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict LES field statistics of interest associated with tracer concentrations. GPR hyperpararameters are optimized component-by-component through a maximum a posteriori (MAP) procedure informed by POD. We provide a detailed analysis of the reducedorder model performance on a two-dimensional case study corresponding to a turbulent atmospheric boundary-layer flow over a surface-mounted obstacle. We show that near-source concentration heterogeneities upstream of the obstacle require a large number of POD modes to be well captured. We also show that the component-by-component optimization allows to capture the range of spatial scales in the POD modes, especially the shorter concentration patterns in the high-order modes. The reduced-order model predictions remain acceptable if the learning database is made of at least fifty to hundred LES snapshot providing a first estimation of the required budget to move towards more realistic atmospheric dispersion applications.

Simulating Road Spray Effects in Automotive Lidar Sensor Models

Modeling perception sensors is key for simulation based testing of automated driving functions. Beyond weather conditions themselves, sensors are also subjected to object dependent environmental influences like tire spray caused by vehicles moving on wet pavement. In this work, a novel modeling approach for spray in lidar data is introduced. The model conforms to the Open Simulation Interface (OSI) standard and is based on the formation of detection clusters within a spray plume. The detections are rendered with a simple custom ray casting algorithm without the need of a fluid dynamics simulation or physics engine. The model is subsequently used to generate training data for object detection algorithms. It is shown that the model helps to improve detection in real-world spray scenarios significantly. Furthermore, a systematic real-world data set is recorded and published for analysis, model calibration and validation of spray effects in active perception sensors. Experiments are conducted on a test track by driving over artificially watered pavement with varying vehicle speeds, vehicle types and levels of pavement wetness. All models and data of this work are available open source.

Emergent behavior and neural dynamics in artificial agents tracking turbulent plumes

Tracking a turbulent plume to locate its source is a complex control problem because it requires multi-sensory integration and must be robust to intermittent odors, changing wind direction, and variable plume statistics. This task is routinely performed by flying insects, often over long distances, in pursuit of food or mates. Several aspects of this remarkable behavior have been studied in detail in many experimental studies. Here, we take a complementary in silico approach, using artificial agents trained with reinforcement learning to develop an integrated understanding of the behaviors and neural computations that support plume tracking. Specifically, we use deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to train recurrent neural network (RNN) agents to locate the source of simulated turbulent plumes. Interestingly, the agents' emergent behaviors resemble those of flying insects, and the RNNs learn to represent task-relevant variables, such as head direction and time since last odor encounter. Our analyses suggest an intriguing experimentally testable hypothesis for tracking plumes in changing wind direction -- that agents follow local plume shape rather than the current wind direction. While reflexive short-memory behaviors are sufficient for tracking plumes in constant wind, longer timescales of memory are essential for tracking plumes that switch direction. At the level of neural dynamics, the RNNs' population activity is low-dimensional and organized into distinct dynamical structures, with some correspondence to behavioral modules. Our in silico approach provides key intuitions for turbulent plume tracking strategies and motivates future targeted experimental and theoretical developments.

FLIVVER: Fly Lobula Inspired Visual Velocity Estimation & Ranging

The mechanism by which a tiny insect or insect-sized robot could estimate its absolute velocity and distance to nearby objects remains unknown. However, this ability is critical for behaviors that require estimating wind direction during flight, such as odor-plume tracking. Neuroscience and behavior studies with insects have shown that they rely on the perception of image motion, or optic flow, to estimate relative motion, equivalent to a ratio of their velocity and distance to objects in the world. The key open challenge is therefore to decouple these two states from a single measurement of their ratio. Although modern SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) methods provide a solution to this problem for robotic systems, these methods typically rely on computations that insects likely cannot perform, such as simultaneously tracking multiple individual visual features, remembering a 3D map of the world, and solving nonlinear optimization problems using iterative algorithms. Here we present a novel algorithm, FLIVVER, which combines the geometry of dynamic forward motion with inspiration from insect visual processing to \textit{directly} estimate absolute ground velocity from a combination of optic flow and acceleration information. Our algorithm provides a clear hypothesis for how insects might estimate absolute velocity, and also provides a theoretical framework for designing fast analog circuitry for efficient state estimation, which could be applied to insect-sized robots.