Two-Layer Linear Auto-Regressive Models Estimate Latent States

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

Instance-Optimal Estimation with Multiple LLM Judges on a Budget

Evaluating large language models increasingly relies on LLM-as-a-judge protocols, but such evaluations remain costly: different judges have different prices and reliabilities, and the difficulty of each prompt-response pair can vary substantially. This raises a basic allocation question: under a fixed budget, how should one distribute evaluation queries across heterogeneous judges and instances to obtain the most accurate score estimates? We formalize this question as *budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation*. Given $K$ prompt-response pairs, $J$ judges with known costs, and unknown query-judge variances, the goal is to estimate a bounded score vector while minimizing an $\ell_p$-error. Our first contribution is to analyze the inverse-variance weighted estimator (IVWE) and to derive the oracle allocation that minimizes its error rate. Since this allocation depends on the unknown variances, we then address the practical unknown-variance setting by proposing EST-IVWE, an adaptive algorithm that constructs and leverages *optimistically biased* variance estimates to stabilize the empirical allocation. We prove that EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget. Our second and central theoretical contribution is a matching *local* minimax lower bound, which establishes the instance-optimality of the proposed algorithms. A key technical insight is that Fano-type high-probability arguments are too coarse for this problem: their packing construction loses the local variance structure that governs the optimal allocation. We instead use an Assouad-type in-expectation argument, based on local perturbations, which preserves this structure and yields the sharp allocation-dependent lower bound. Finally, we numerically validate the superiority of our approach over naïve uniform allocation on synthetic and HelpSteer2 datasets.

Sub-optimality of the Separation Principle for Quadratic Control from Bilinear Observations

We consider the problem of controlling a linear dynamical system from bilinear observations with minimal quadratic cost. Despite the similarity of this problem to standard linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control, we show that when the observation model is bilinear, neither does the Separation Principle hold, nor is the optimal controller affine in the estimated state. Moreover, the cost-to-go is non-convex in the control input. Hence, finding an analytical expression for the optimal feedback controller is difficult in general. Under certain settings, we show that the standard LQG controller locally maximizes the cost instead of minimizing it. Furthermore, the optimal controllers (derived analytically) are not unique and are nonlinear in the estimated state. We also introduce a notion of input-dependent observability and derive conditions under which the Kalman filter covariance remains bounded. We illustrate our theoretical results through numerical experiments in multiple synthetic settings.

Finite Sample Identification of Partially Observed Bilinear Dynamical Systems

We consider the problem of learning a realization of a partially observed bilinear dynamical system (BLDS) from noisy input-output data. Given a single trajectory of input-output samples, we provide a finite time analysis for learning the system's Markov-like parameters, from which a balanced realization of the bilinear system can be obtained. Our bilinear system identification algorithm learns the system's Markov-like parameters by regressing the outputs to highly correlated, nonlinear, and heavy-tailed covariates. Moreover, the stability of BLDS depends on the sequence of inputs used to excite the system. These properties, unique to partially observed bilinear dynamical systems, pose significant challenges to the analysis of our algorithm for learning the unknown dynamics. We address these challenges and provide high probability error bounds on our identification algorithm under a uniform stability assumption. Our analysis provides insights into system theoretic quantities that affect learning accuracy and sample complexity. Lastly, we perform numerical experiments with synthetic data to reinforce these insights.

Model-free Low-Rank Reinforcement Learning via Leveraged Entry-wise Matrix Estimation

We consider the problem of learning an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy in controlled dynamical systems with low-rank latent structure. For this problem, we present LoRa-PI (Low-Rank Policy Iteration), a model-free learning algorithm alternating between policy improvement and policy evaluation steps. In the latter, the algorithm estimates the low-rank matrix corresponding to the (state, action) value function of the current policy using the following two-phase procedure. The entries of the matrix are first sampled uniformly at random to estimate, via a spectral method, the leverage scores of its rows and columns. These scores are then used to extract a few important rows and columns whose entries are further sampled. The algorithm exploits these new samples to complete the matrix estimation using a CUR-like method. For this leveraged matrix estimation procedure, we establish entry-wise guarantees that remarkably, do not depend on the coherence of the matrix but only on its spikiness. These guarantees imply that LoRa-PI learns an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy using $\widetilde{O}({S+A\over \mathrm{poly}(1-\gamma)\varepsilon^2})$ samples where $S$ (resp. $A$) denotes the number of states (resp. actions) and $\gamma$ the discount factor. Our algorithm achieves this order-optimal (in $S$, $A$ and $\varepsilon$) sample complexity under milder conditions than those assumed in previously proposed approaches.

Learning Linear Dynamics from Bilinear Observations

We consider the problem of learning a realization of a partially observed dynamical system with linear state transitions and bilinear observations. Under very mild assumptions on the process and measurement noises, we provide a finite time analysis for learning the unknown dynamics matrices (up to a similarity transform). Our analysis involves a regression problem with heavy-tailed and dependent data. Moreover, each row of our design matrix contains a Kronecker product of current input with a history of inputs, making it difficult to guarantee persistence of excitation. We overcome these challenges, first providing a data-dependent high probability error bound for arbitrary but fixed inputs. Then, we derive a data-independent error bound for inputs chosen according to a simple random design. Our main results provide an upper bound on the statistical error rates and sample complexity of learning the unknown dynamics matrices from a single finite trajectory of bilinear observations.

Low-Rank Bandits via Tight Two-to-Infinity Singular Subspace Recovery

We study contextual bandits with low-rank structure where, in each round, if the (context, arm) pair $(i,j)\in [m]\times [n]$ is selected, the learner observes a noisy sample of the $(i,j)$-th entry of an unknown low-rank reward matrix. Successive contexts are generated randomly in an i.i.d. manner and are revealed to the learner. For such bandits, we present efficient algorithms for policy evaluation, best policy identification and regret minimization. For policy evaluation and best policy identification, we show that our algorithms are nearly minimax optimal. For instance, the number of samples required to return an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy with probability at least $1-\delta$ typically scales as ${m+n\over \varepsilon^2}\log(1/\delta)$. Our regret minimization algorithm enjoys minimax guarantees scaling as $r^{7/4}(m+n)^{3/4}\sqrt{T}$, which improves over existing algorithms. All the proposed algorithms consist of two phases: they first leverage spectral methods to estimate the left and right singular subspaces of the low-rank reward matrix. We show that these estimates enjoy tight error guarantees in the two-to-infinity norm. This in turn allows us to reformulate our problems as a misspecified linear bandit problem with dimension roughly $r(m+n)$ and misspecification controlled by the subspace recovery error, as well as to design the second phase of our algorithms efficiently.

Spectral Entry-wise Matrix Estimation for Low-Rank Reinforcement Learning

We study matrix estimation problems arising in reinforcement learning (RL) with low-rank structure. In low-rank bandits, the matrix to be recovered specifies the expected arm rewards, and for low-rank Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), it may for example characterize the transition kernel of the MDP. In both cases, each entry of the matrix carries important information, and we seek estimation methods with low entry-wise error. Importantly, these methods further need to accommodate for inherent correlations in the available data (e.g. for MDPs, the data consists of system trajectories). We investigate the performance of simple spectral-based matrix estimation approaches: we show that they efficiently recover the singular subspaces of the matrix and exhibit nearly-minimal entry-wise error. These new results on low-rank matrix estimation make it possible to devise reinforcement learning algorithms that fully exploit the underlying low-rank structure. We provide two examples of such algorithms: a regret minimization algorithm for low-rank bandit problems, and a best policy identification algorithm for reward-free RL in low-rank MDPs. Both algorithms yield state-of-the-art performance guarantees.

A Tutorial on the Non-Asymptotic Theory of System Identification

This tutorial serves as an introduction to recently developed non-asymptotic methods in the theory of -- mainly linear -- system identification. We emphasize tools we deem particularly useful for a range of problems in this domain, such as the covering technique, the Hanson-Wright Inequality and the method of self-normalized martingales. We then employ these tools to give streamlined proofs of the performance of various least-squares based estimators for identifying the parameters in autoregressive models. We conclude by sketching out how the ideas presented herein can be extended to certain nonlinear identification problems.

Nearly Optimal Latent State Decoding in Block MDPs

We investigate the problems of model estimation and reward-free learning in episodic Block MDPs. In these MDPs, the decision maker has access to rich observations or contexts generated from a small number of latent states. We are first interested in estimating the latent state decoding function (the mapping from the observations to latent states) based on data generated under a fixed behavior policy. We derive an information-theoretical lower bound on the error rate for estimating this function and present an algorithm approaching this fundamental limit. In turn, our algorithm also provides estimates of all the components of the MDP. We then study the problem of learning near-optimal policies in the reward-free framework. Based on our efficient model estimation algorithm, we show that we can infer a policy converging (as the number of collected samples grows large) to the optimal policy at the best possible rate. Interestingly, our analysis provides necessary and sufficient conditions under which exploiting the block structure yields improvements in the sample complexity for identifying near-optimal policies. When these conditions are met, the sample complexity in the minimax reward-free setting is improved by a multiplicative factor $n$, where $n$ is the number of possible contexts.