From Text to Time? Rethinking the Effectiveness of the Large Language Model for Time Series Forecasting

Using pre-trained large language models (LLMs) as the backbone for time series prediction has recently gained significant research interest. However, the effectiveness of LLM backbones in this domain remains a topic of debate. Based on thorough empirical analyses, we observe that training and testing LLM-based models on small datasets often leads to the Encoder and Decoder becoming overly adapted to the dataset, thereby obscuring the true predictive capabilities of the LLM backbone. To investigate the genuine potential of LLMs in time series prediction, we introduce three pre-training models with identical architectures but different pre-training strategies. Thereby, large-scale pre-training allows us to create unbiased Encoder and Decoder components tailored to the LLM backbone. Through controlled experiments, we evaluate the zero-shot and few-shot prediction performance of the LLM, offering insights into its capabilities. Extensive experiments reveal that although the LLM backbone demonstrates some promise, its forecasting performance is limited. Our source code is publicly available in the anonymous repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/LLM4TS-0B5C.

Prototype Optimization with Neural ODE for Few-Shot Learning

Few-Shot Learning (FSL) is a challenging task, which aims to recognize novel classes with few examples. Pre-training based methods effectively tackle the problem by pre-training a feature extractor and then performing class prediction via a cosine classifier with mean-based prototypes. Nevertheless, due to the data scarcity, the mean-based prototypes are usually biased. In this paper, we attempt to diminish the prototype bias by regarding it as a prototype optimization problem. To this end, we propose a novel prototype optimization framework to rectify prototypes, i.e., introducing a meta-optimizer to optimize prototypes. Although the existing meta-optimizers can also be adapted to our framework, they all overlook a crucial gradient bias issue, i.e., the mean-based gradient estimation is also biased on sparse data. To address this issue, in this paper, we regard the gradient and its flow as meta-knowledge and then propose a novel Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE)-based meta-optimizer to optimize prototypes, called MetaNODE. Although MetaNODE has shown superior performance, it suffers from a huge computational burden. To further improve its computation efficiency, we conduct a detailed analysis on MetaNODE and then design an effective and efficient MetaNODE extension version (called E2MetaNODE). It consists of two novel modules: E2GradNet and E2Solver, which aim to estimate accurate gradient flows and solve optimal prototypes in an effective and efficient manner, respectively. Extensive experiments show that 1) our methods achieve superior performance over previous FSL methods and 2) our E2MetaNODE significantly improves computation efficiency meanwhile without performance degradation.

LG-VQ: Language-Guided Codebook Learning

Vector quantization (VQ) is a key technique in high-resolution and high-fidelity image synthesis, which aims to learn a codebook to encode an image with a sequence of discrete codes and then generate an image in an auto-regression manner. Although existing methods have shown superior performance, most methods prefer to learn a single-modal codebook (\emph{e.g.}, image), resulting in suboptimal performance when the codebook is applied to multi-modal downstream tasks (\emph{e.g.}, text-to-image, image captioning) due to the existence of modal gaps. In this paper, we propose a novel language-guided codebook learning framework, called LG-VQ, which aims to learn a codebook that can be aligned with the text to improve the performance of multi-modal downstream tasks. Specifically, we first introduce pre-trained text semantics as prior knowledge, then design two novel alignment modules (\emph{i.e.}, Semantic Alignment Module, and Relationship Alignment Module) to transfer such prior knowledge into codes for achieving codebook text alignment. In particular, our LG-VQ method is model-agnostic, which can be easily integrated into existing VQ models. Experimental results show that our method achieves superior performance on reconstruction and various multi-modal downstream tasks.

MCSDNet: Mesoscale Convective System Detection Network via Multi-scale Spatiotemporal Information

The accurate detection of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) is crucial for meteorological monitoring due to their potential to cause significant destruction through severe weather phenomena such as hail, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall. However, the existing methods for MCS detection mostly targets on single-frame detection, which just considers the static characteristics and ignores the temporal evolution in the life cycle of MCS. In this paper, we propose a novel encoder-decoder neural network for MCS detection(MCSDNet). MCSDNet has a simple architecture and is easy to expand. Different from the previous models, MCSDNet targets on multi-frames detection and leverages multi-scale spatiotemporal information for the detection of MCS regions in remote sensing imagery(RSI). As far as we know, it is the first work to utilize multi-scale spatiotemporal information to detect MCS regions. Firstly, we design a multi-scale spatiotemporal information module to extract multi-level semantic from different encoder levels, which makes our models can extract more detail spatiotemporal features. Secondly, a Spatiotemporal Mix Unit(STMU) is introduced to MCSDNet to capture both intra-frame features and inter-frame correlations, which is a scalable module and can be replaced by other spatiotemporal module, e.g., CNN, RNN, Transformer and our proposed Dual Spatiotemporal Attention(DSTA). This means that the future works about spatiotemporal modules can be easily integrated to our model. Finally, we present MCSRSI, the first publicly available dataset for multi-frames MCS detection based on visible channel images from the FY-4A satellite. We also conduct several experiments on MCSRSI and find that our proposed MCSDNet achieve the best performance on MCS detection task when comparing to other baseline methods.

Four-hour thunderstorm nowcasting using deep diffusion models of satellite

Convection (thunderstorm) develops rapidly within hours and is highly destructive, posing a significant challenge for nowcasting and resulting in substantial losses to nature and society. After the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods, convection nowcasting has experienced rapid advancements, with its performance surpassing that of physics-based numerical weather prediction and other conventional approaches. However, the lead time and coverage of it still leave much to be desired and hardly meet the needs of disaster emergency response. Here, we propose a deep diffusion model of satellite (DDMS) to establish an AI-based convection nowcasting system. On one hand, it employs diffusion processes to effectively simulate complicated spatiotemporal evolution patterns of convective clouds, significantly improving the forecast lead time. On the other hand, it utilizes geostationary satellite brightness temperature data, thereby achieving planetary-scale forecast coverage. During long-term tests and objective validation based on the FengYun-4A satellite, our system achieves, for the first time, effective convection nowcasting up to 4 hours, with broad coverage (about 20,000,000 km2), remarkable accuracy, and high resolution (15 minutes; 4 km). Its performance reaches a new height in convection nowcasting compared to the existing models. In terms of application, our system operates efficiently (forecasting 4 hours of convection in 8 minutes), and is highly transferable with the potential to collaborate with multiple satellites for global convection nowcasting. Furthermore, our results highlight the remarkable capabilities of diffusion models in convective clouds forecasting, as well as the significant value of geostationary satellite data when empowered by AI technologies.

Codebook Transfer with Part-of-Speech for Vector-Quantized Image Modeling

Vector-Quantized Image Modeling (VQIM) is a fundamental research problem in image synthesis, which aims to represent an image with a discrete token sequence. Existing studies effectively address this problem by learning a discrete codebook from scratch and in a code-independent manner to quantize continuous representations into discrete tokens. However, learning a codebook from scratch and in a code-independent manner is highly challenging, which may be a key reason causing codebook collapse, i.e., some code vectors can rarely be optimized without regard to the relationship between codes and good codebook priors such that die off finally. In this paper, inspired by pretrained language models, we find that these language models have actually pretrained a superior codebook via a large number of text corpus, but such information is rarely exploited in VQIM. To this end, we propose a novel codebook transfer framework with part-of-speech, called VQCT, which aims to transfer a well-trained codebook from pretrained language models to VQIM for robust codebook learning. Specifically, we first introduce a pretrained codebook from language models and part-of-speech knowledge as priors. Then, we construct a vision-related codebook with these priors for achieving codebook transfer. Finally, a novel codebook transfer network is designed to exploit abundant semantic relationships between codes contained in pretrained codebooks for robust VQIM codebook learning. Experimental results on four datasets show that our VQCT method achieves superior VQIM performance over previous state-of-the-art methods.

DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting

Precipitation nowcasting is an important spatio-temporal prediction task to predict the radar echoes sequences based on current observations, which can serve both meteorological science and smart city applications. Due to the chaotic evolution nature of the precipitation systems, it is a very challenging problem. Previous studies address the problem either from the perspectives of deterministic modeling or probabilistic modeling. However, their predictions suffer from the blurry, high-value echoes fading away and position inaccurate issues. The root reason of these issues is that the chaotic evolutionary precipitation systems are not appropriately modeled. Inspired by the nature of the systems, we propose to decompose and model them from the perspective of global deterministic motion and local stochastic variations with residual mechanism. A unified and flexible framework that can equip any type of spatio-temporal models is proposed based on residual diffusion, which effectively tackles the shortcomings of previous methods. Extensive experimental results on four publicly available radar datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework, compared to state-of-the-art techniques. Our code will be made publicly available soon.

HPCR: Holistic Proxy-based Contrastive Replay for Online Continual Learning

Online continual learning (OCL) aims to continuously learn new data from a single pass over the online data stream. It generally suffers from the catastrophic forgetting issue. Existing replay-based methods effectively alleviate this issue by replaying part of old data in a proxy-based or contrastive-based replay manner. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of these two replay manners and find they can be complementary. Inspired by this finding, we propose a novel replay-based method called proxy-based contrastive replay (PCR), which replaces anchor-to-sample pairs with anchor-to-proxy pairs in the contrastive-based loss to alleviate the phenomenon of forgetting. Based on PCR, we further develop a more advanced method named holistic proxy-based contrastive replay (HPCR), which consists of three components. The contrastive component conditionally incorporates anchor-to-sample pairs to PCR, learning more fine-grained semantic information with a large training batch. The second is a temperature component that decouples the temperature coefficient into two parts based on their impacts on the gradient and sets different values for them to learn more novel knowledge. The third is a distillation component that constrains the learning process to keep more historical knowledge. Experiments on four datasets consistently demonstrate the superiority of HPCR over various state-of-the-art methods.

UER: A Heuristic Bias Addressing Approach for Online Continual Learning

Online continual learning aims to continuously train neural networks from a continuous data stream with a single pass-through data. As the most effective approach, the rehearsal-based methods replay part of previous data. Commonly used predictors in existing methods tend to generate biased dot-product logits that prefer to the classes of current data, which is known as a bias issue and a phenomenon of forgetting. Many approaches have been proposed to overcome the forgetting problem by correcting the bias; however, they still need to be improved in online fashion. In this paper, we try to address the bias issue by a more straightforward and more efficient method. By decomposing the dot-product logits into an angle factor and a norm factor, we empirically find that the bias problem mainly occurs in the angle factor, which can be used to learn novel knowledge as cosine logits. On the contrary, the norm factor abandoned by existing methods helps remember historical knowledge. Based on this observation, we intuitively propose to leverage the norm factor to balance the new and old knowledge for addressing the bias. To this end, we develop a heuristic approach called unbias experience replay (UER). UER learns current samples only by the angle factor and further replays previous samples by both the norm and angle factors. Extensive experiments on three datasets show that UER achieves superior performance over various state-of-the-art methods. The code is in https://github.com/FelixHuiweiLin/UER.

PCR: Proxy-based Contrastive Replay for Online Class-Incremental Continual Learning

Online class-incremental continual learning is a specific task of continual learning. It aims to continuously learn new classes from data stream and the samples of data stream are seen only once, which suffers from the catastrophic forgetting issue, i.e., forgetting historical knowledge of old classes. Existing replay-based methods effectively alleviate this issue by saving and replaying part of old data in a proxy-based or contrastive-based replay manner. Although these two replay manners are effective, the former would incline to new classes due to class imbalance issues, and the latter is unstable and hard to converge because of the limited number of samples. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of these two replay manners and find that they can be complementary. Inspired by this finding, we propose a novel replay-based method called proxy-based contrastive replay (PCR). The key operation is to replace the contrastive samples of anchors with corresponding proxies in the contrastive-based way. It alleviates the phenomenon of catastrophic forgetting by effectively addressing the imbalance issue, as well as keeps a faster convergence of the model. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world benchmark datasets, and empirical results consistently demonstrate the superiority of PCR over various state-of-the-art methods.