Hotel Booking Cancellation Prediction Using Applied Bayesian Models

This study applies Bayesian models to predict hotel booking cancellations, a key challenge affecting resource allocation, revenue, and customer satisfaction in the hospitality industry. Using a Kaggle dataset with 36,285 observations and 17 features, Bayesian Logistic Regression and Beta-Binomial models were implemented. The logistic model, applied to 12 features and 5,000 randomly selected observations, outperformed the Beta-Binomial model in predictive accuracy. Key predictors included the number of adults, children, stay duration, lead time, car parking space, room type, and special requests. Model evaluation using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV) confirmed strong alignment between observed and predicted outcomes, demonstrating the model's robustness. Special requests and parking availability were found to be the strongest predictors of cancellation. This Bayesian approach provides a valuable tool for improving booking management and operational efficiency in the hotel industry.

Variational Sampling of Temporal Trajectories

A deterministic temporal process can be determined by its trajectory, an element in the product space of (a) initial condition $z_0 \in \mathcal{Z}$ and (b) transition function $f: (\mathcal{Z}, \mathcal{T}) \to \mathcal{Z}$ often influenced by the control of the underlying dynamical system. Existing methods often model the transition function as a differential equation or as a recurrent neural network. Despite their effectiveness in predicting future measurements, few results have successfully established a method for sampling and statistical inference of trajectories using neural networks, partially due to constraints in the parameterization. In this work, we introduce a mechanism to learn the distribution of trajectories by parameterizing the transition function $f$ explicitly as an element in a function space. Our framework allows efficient synthesis of novel trajectories, while also directly providing a convenient tool for inference, i.e., uncertainty estimation, likelihood evaluations and out of distribution detection for abnormal trajectories. These capabilities can have implications for various downstream tasks, e.g., simulation and evaluation for reinforcement learning.

Pooling Image Datasets With Multiple Covariate Shift and Imbalance

Small sample sizes are common in many disciplines, which necessitates pooling roughly similar datasets across multiple institutions to study weak but relevant associations between images and disease outcomes. Such data often manifest shift/imbalance in covariates (i.e., secondary non-imaging data). Controlling for such nuisance variables is common within standard statistical analysis, but the ideas do not directly apply to overparameterized models. Consequently, recent work has shown how strategies from invariant representation learning provides a meaningful starting point, but the current repertoire of methods is limited to accounting for shifts/imbalances in just a couple of covariates at a time. In this paper, we show how viewing this problem from the perspective of Category theory provides a simple and effective solution that completely avoids elaborate multi-stage training pipelines that would otherwise be needed. We show the effectiveness of this approach via extensive experiments on real datasets. Further, we discuss how this style of formulation offers a unified perspective on at least 5+ distinct problem settings, from self-supervised learning to matching problems in 3D reconstruction.

IM-Unpack: Training and Inference with Arbitrarily Low Precision Integers

GEneral Matrix Multiply (GEMM) is a central operation in deep learning and corresponds to the largest chunk of the compute footprint. Therefore, improving its efficiency is an active topic of ongoing research. A popular strategy is the use of low bit-width integers to approximate the original entries in a matrix. This allows efficiency gains, but often requires sophisticated techniques to control the rounding error incurred. In this work, we first verify/check that when the low bit-width restriction is removed, for a variety of Transformer-based models, whether integers are sufficient for all GEMMs need -- for {\em both} training and inference stages, and can achieve parity with floating point counterparts. No sophisticated techniques are needed. We find that while a large majority of entries in matrices (encountered in such models) can be easily represented by {\em low} bit-width integers, the existence of a few heavy hitter entries make it difficult to achieve efficiency gains via the exclusive use of low bit-width GEMMs alone. To address this issue, we develop a simple algorithm, Integer Matrix Unpacking (IM-Unpack), to {\em unpack} a matrix with large integer entries into a larger matrix whose entries all lie within the representable range of arbitrarily low bit-width integers. This allows {\em equivalence} with the original GEMM, i.e., the exact result can be obtained using purely low bit-width integer GEMMs. This comes at the cost of additional operations -- we show that for many popular models, this overhead is quite small.

LookupFFN: Making Transformers Compute-lite for CPU inference

While GPU clusters are the de facto choice for training large deep neural network (DNN) models today, several reasons including ease of workflow, security and cost have led to efforts investigating whether CPUs may be viable for inference in routine use in many sectors of the industry. But the imbalance between the compute capabilities of GPUs and CPUs is huge. Motivated by these considerations, we study a module which is a workhorse within modern DNN architectures, GEMM based Feed Forward Networks (FFNs), and assess the extent to which it can be made compute- (or FLOP-) lite. Specifically, we propose an alternative formulation (we call it LookupFFN) to GEMM based FFNs inspired by the recent studies of using Locality Sensitive Hashing (LSH) to approximate FFNs. Our formulation recasts most essential operations as a memory look-up, leveraging the trade-off between the two resources on any platform: compute and memory (since CPUs offer it in abundance). For RoBERTa language model pretraining, our formulation achieves similar performance compared to GEMM based FFNs, while dramatically reducing the required FLOP. Our development is complemented with a detailed hardware profiling of strategies that will maximize efficiency -- not just on contemporary hardware but on products that will be offered in the near/medium term future. Code is avaiable at \url{https://github.com/mlpen/LookupFFN}.

FrameQuant: Flexible Low-Bit Quantization for Transformers

Transformers are the backbone of powerful foundation models for many Vision and Natural Language Processing tasks. But their compute and memory/storage footprint is large, and so, serving such models is expensive often requiring high-end hardware. To mitigate this difficulty, Post-Training Quantization seeks to modify a pre-trained model and quantize it to eight bits or lower, significantly boosting compute/memory/latency efficiency. Such models have been successfully quantized to four bits with some performance loss. In this work, we outline a simple scheme to quantize Transformer-based models to just two bits (plus some overhead) with only a small drop in accuracy. Key to our formulation is a concept borrowed from Harmonic analysis called Fusion Frames. Our main finding is that the quantization must take place not in the original weight space, but instead in the Fusion Frame representations. If quantization is interpreted as the addition of noise, our casting of the problem allows invoking an extensive body of known consistent recovery and noise robustness guarantees. Further, if desired, de-noising filters are known in closed form. We show empirically, via a variety of experiments, that (almost) two-bit quantization for Transformer models promises sizable efficiency gains.

Vcc: Scaling Transformers to 128K Tokens or More by Prioritizing Important Tokens

Transformer models are foundational to natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision. Despite various recent works devoted to reducing the quadratic cost of such models (as a function of the sequence length $n$), dealing with ultra long sequences efficiently (e.g., with more than 16K tokens) remains challenging. Applications such as answering questions based on an entire book or summarizing a scientific article are inefficient or infeasible. In this paper, we propose to significantly reduce the dependency of a Transformer model's complexity on $n$, by compressing the input into a representation whose size $r$ is independent of $n$ at each layer. Specifically, by exploiting the fact that in many tasks, only a small subset of special tokens (we call VIP-tokens) are most relevant to the final prediction, we propose a VIP-token centric compression (Vcc) scheme which selectively compresses the input sequence based on their impact on approximating the representation of these VIP-tokens. Compared with competitive baselines, the proposed algorithm not only is efficient (achieving more than $3\times$ efficiency improvement compared to baselines on 4K and 16K lengths), but also achieves competitive or better performance on a large number of tasks. Further, we show that our algorithm can be scaled to 128K tokens (or more) while consistently offering accuracy improvement.

Multi Resolution Analysis (MRA) for Approximate Self-Attention

Transformers have emerged as a preferred model for many tasks in natural langugage processing and vision. Recent efforts on training and deploying Transformers more efficiently have identified many strategies to approximate the self-attention matrix, a key module in a Transformer architecture. Effective ideas include various prespecified sparsity patterns, low-rank basis expansions and combinations thereof. In this paper, we revisit classical Multiresolution Analysis (MRA) concepts such as Wavelets, whose potential value in this setting remains underexplored thus far. We show that simple approximations based on empirical feedback and design choices informed by modern hardware and implementation challenges, eventually yield a MRA-based approach for self-attention with an excellent performance profile across most criteria of interest. We undertake an extensive set of experiments and demonstrate that this multi-resolution scheme outperforms most efficient self-attention proposals and is favorable for both short and long sequences. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/mlpen/mra-attention}.

On the Versatile Uses of Partial Distance Correlation in Deep Learning

Comparing the functional behavior of neural network models, whether it is a single network over time or two (or more networks) during or post-training, is an essential step in understanding what they are learning (and what they are not), and for identifying strategies for regularization or efficiency improvements. Despite recent progress, e.g., comparing vision transformers to CNNs, systematic comparison of function, especially across different networks, remains difficult and is often carried out layer by layer. Approaches such as canonical correlation analysis (CCA) are applicable in principle, but have been sparingly used so far. In this paper, we revisit a (less widely known) from statistics, called distance correlation (and its partial variant), designed to evaluate correlation between feature spaces of different dimensions. We describe the steps necessary to carry out its deployment for large scale models -- this opens the door to a surprising array of applications ranging from conditioning one deep model w.r.t. another, learning disentangled representations as well as optimizing diverse models that would directly be more robust to adversarial attacks. Our experiments suggest a versatile regularizer (or constraint) with many advantages, which avoids some of the common difficulties one faces in such analyses. Code is at https://github.com/zhenxingjian/Partial_Distance_Correlation.

Deep Unlearning via Randomized Conditionally Independent Hessians

Recent legislation has led to interest in machine unlearning, i.e., removing specific training samples from a predictive model as if they never existed in the training dataset. Unlearning may also be required due to corrupted/adversarial data or simply a user's updated privacy requirement. For models which require no training (k-NN), simply deleting the closest original sample can be effective. But this idea is inapplicable to models which learn richer representations. Recent ideas leveraging optimization-based updates scale poorly with the model dimension d, due to inverting the Hessian of the loss function. We use a variant of a new conditional independence coefficient, L-CODEC, to identify a subset of the model parameters with the most semantic overlap on an individual sample level. Our approach completely avoids the need to invert a (possibly) huge matrix. By utilizing a Markov blanket selection, we premise that L-CODEC is also suitable for deep unlearning, as well as other applications in vision. Compared to alternatives, L-CODEC makes approximate unlearning possible in settings that would otherwise be infeasible, including vision models used for face recognition, person re-identification and NLP models that may require unlearning samples identified for exclusion. Code can be found at https://github.com/vsingh-group/LCODEC-deep-unlearning/