Multi-class Seismic Building Damage Assessment from InSAR Imagery using Quadratic Variational Causal Bayesian Inference

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology uses satellite radar to detect surface deformation patterns and monitor earthquake impacts on buildings. While vital for emergency response planning, extracting multi-class building damage classifications from InSAR data faces challenges: overlapping damage signatures with environmental noise, computational complexity in multi-class scenarios, and the need for rapid regional-scale processing. Our novel multi-class variational causal Bayesian inference framework with quadratic variational bounds provides rigorous approximations while ensuring efficiency. By integrating InSAR observations with USGS ground failure models and building fragility functions, our approach separates building damage signals while maintaining computational efficiency through strategic pruning. Evaluation across five major earthquakes (Haiti 2021, Puerto Rico 2020, Zagreb 2020, Italy 2016, Ridgecrest 2019) shows improved damage classification accuracy (AUC: 0.94-0.96), achieving up to 35.7% improvement over existing methods. Our approach maintains high accuracy (AUC > 0.93) across all damage categories while reducing computational overhead by over 40% without requiring extensive ground truth data.

From Perceptions to Decisions: Wildfire Evacuation Decision Prediction with Behavioral Theory-informed LLMs

Evacuation decision prediction is critical for efficient and effective wildfire response by helping emergency management anticipate traffic congestion and bottlenecks, allocate resources, and minimize negative impacts. Traditional statistical methods for evacuation decision prediction fail to capture the complex and diverse behavioral logic of different individuals. In this work, for the first time, we introduce FLARE, short for facilitating LLM for advanced reasoning on wildfire evacuation decision prediction, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based framework that integrates behavioral theories and models to streamline the Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning and subsequently integrate with memory-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) module to provide accurate evacuation decision prediction and understanding. Our proposed method addresses the limitations of using existing LLMs for evacuation behavioral predictions, such as limited survey data, mismatching with behavioral theory, conflicting individual preferences, implicit and complex mental states, and intractable mental state-behavior mapping. Experiments on three post-wildfire survey datasets show an average of 20.47% performance improvement over traditional theory-informed behavioral models, with strong cross-event generalizability. Our complete code is publicly available at https://github.com/SusuXu-s-Lab/FLARE

Spatial-variant causal Bayesian inference for rapid seismic ground failures and impacts estimation

Rapid and accurate estimation of post-earthquake ground failures and building damage is critical for effective post-disaster responses. Progression in remote sensing technologies has paved the way for rapid acquisition of detailed, localized data, enabling swift hazard estimation through analysis of correlation deviations between pre- and post-quake satellite imagery. However, discerning seismic hazards and their impacts is challenged by overlapping satellite signals from ground failures, building damage, and environmental noise. Previous advancements introduced a novel causal graph-based Bayesian network that continually refines seismic ground failure and building damage estimates derived from satellite imagery, accounting for the intricate interplay among geospatial elements, seismic activity, ground failures, building structures, damages, and satellite data. However, this model's neglect of spatial heterogeneity across different locations in a seismic region limits its precision in capturing the spatial diversity of seismic effects. In this study, we pioneer an approach that accounts for spatial intricacies by introducing a spatial variable influenced by the bilateral filter to capture relationships from surrounding hazards. The bilateral filter considers both spatial proximity of neighboring hazards and their ground shaking intensity values, ensuring refined modeling of spatial relationships. This integration achieves a balance between site-specific characteristics and spatial tendencies, offering a comprehensive representation of the post-disaster landscape. Our model, tested across multiple earthquake events, demonstrates significant improvements in capturing spatial heterogeneity in seismic hazard estimation. The results highlight enhanced accuracy and efficiency in post-earthquake large-scale multi-impact estimation, effectively informing rapid disaster responses.

SniffySquad: Patchiness-Aware Gas Source Localization with Multi-Robot Collaboration

Gas source localization is pivotal for the rapid mitigation of gas leakage disasters, where mobile robots emerge as a promising solution. However, existing methods predominantly schedule robots' movements based on reactive stimuli or simplified gas plume models. These approaches typically excel in idealized, simulated environments but fall short in real-world gas environments characterized by their patchy distribution. In this work, we introduce SniffySquad, a multi-robot olfaction-based system designed to address the inherent patchiness in gas source localization. SniffySquad incorporates a patchiness-aware active sensing approach that enhances the quality of data collection and estimation. Moreover, it features an innovative collaborative role adaptation strategy to boost the efficiency of source-seeking endeavors. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our system achieves an increase in the success rate by $20\%+$ and an improvement in path efficiency by $30\%+$, outperforming state-of-the-art gas source localization solutions.

Preventing Model Collapse in Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis by Noise Regularization

Multi-View Representation Learning (MVRL) aims to learn a unified representation of an object from multi-view data. Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis (DCCA) and its variants share simple formulations and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. However, with extensive experiments, we observe the issue of model collapse, {\em i.e.}, the performance of DCCA-based methods will drop drastically when training proceeds. The model collapse issue could significantly hinder the wide adoption of DCCA-based methods because it is challenging to decide when to early stop. To this end, we develop NR-DCCA, which is equipped with a novel noise regularization approach to prevent model collapse. Theoretical analysis shows that the Correlation Invariant Property is the key to preventing model collapse, and our noise regularization forces the neural network to possess such a property. A framework to construct synthetic data with different common and complementary information is also developed to compare MVRL methods comprehensively. The developed NR-DCCA outperforms baselines stably and consistently in both synthetic and real-world datasets, and the proposed noise regularization approach can also be generalized to other DCCA-based methods such as DGCCA.

Post-hurricane building damage assessment using street-view imagery and structured data: A multi-modal deep learning approach

Accurately assessing building damage is critical for disaster response and recovery. However, many existing models for detecting building damage have poor prediction accuracy due to their limited capabilities of identifying detailed, comprehensive structural and/or non-structural damage from the street-view image. Additionally, these models mainly rely on the imagery data for damage classification, failing to account for other critical information, such as wind speed, building characteristics, evacuation zones, and distance of the building to the hurricane track. To address these limitations, in this study, we propose a novel multi-modal (i.e., imagery and structured data) approach for post-hurricane building damage classification, named the Multi-Modal Swin Transformer (MMST). We empirically train and evaluate the proposed MMST using data collected from the 2022 Hurricane Ian in Florida, USA. Results show that MMST outperforms all selected state-of-the-art benchmark models and can achieve an accuracy of 92.67%, which are 7.71% improvement in accuracy compared to Visual Geometry Group 16 (VGG-16). In addition to the street-view imagery data, building value, building age, and wind speed are the most important predictors for damage level classification. The proposed MMST can be deployed to assist in rapid damage assessment and guide reconnaissance efforts in future hurricanes.

Near-real-time Earthquake-induced Fatality Estimation using Crowdsourced Data and Large-Language Models

When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were developed to provide a forecast within about 30 minutes of any significant earthquake globally. Traditional systems for estimating human loss in disasters often depend on manually collected early casualty reports from global media, a process that's labor-intensive and slow with notable time delays. Recently, some systems have employed keyword matching and topic modeling to extract relevant information from social media. However, these methods struggle with the complex semantics in multilingual texts and the challenge of interpreting ever-changing, often conflicting reports of death and injury numbers from various unverified sources on social media platforms. In this work, we introduce an end-to-end framework to significantly improve the timeliness and accuracy of global earthquake-induced human loss forecasting using multi-lingual, crowdsourced social media. Our framework integrates (1) a hierarchical casualty extraction model built upon large language models, prompt design, and few-shot learning to retrieve quantitative human loss claims from social media, (2) a physical constraint-aware, dynamic-truth discovery model that discovers the truthful human loss from massive noisy and potentially conflicting human loss claims, and (3) a Bayesian updating loss projection model that dynamically updates the final loss estimation using discovered truths. We test the framework in real-time on a series of global earthquake events in 2021 and 2022 and show that our framework streamlines casualty data retrieval, achieving speed and accuracy comparable to manual methods by USGS.

Normalizing flow-based deep variational Bayesian network for seismic multi-hazards and impacts estimation from InSAR imagery

Onsite disasters like earthquakes can trigger cascading hazards and impacts, such as landslides and infrastructure damage, leading to catastrophic losses; thus, rapid and accurate estimates are crucial for timely and effective post-disaster responses. Interferometric Synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data is important in providing high-resolution onsite information for rapid hazard estimation. Most recent methods using InSAR imagery signals predict a single type of hazard and thus often suffer low accuracy due to noisy and complex signals induced by co-located hazards, impacts, and irrelevant environmental changes (e.g., vegetation changes, human activities). We introduce a novel stochastic variational inference with normalizing flows derived to jointly approximate posteriors of multiple unobserved hazards and impacts from noisy InSAR imagery.

Causality-informed Rapid Post-hurricane Building Damage Detection in Large Scale from InSAR Imagery

Timely and accurate assessment of hurricane-induced building damage is crucial for effective post-hurricane response and recovery efforts. Recently, remote sensing technologies provide large-scale optical or Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery data immediately after a disastrous event, which can be readily used to conduct rapid building damage assessment. Compared to optical satellite imageries, the Synthetic Aperture Radar can penetrate cloud cover and provide more complete spatial coverage of damaged zones in various weather conditions. However, these InSAR imageries often contain highly noisy and mixed signals induced by co-occurring or co-located building damage, flood, flood/wind-induced vegetation changes, as well as anthropogenic activities, making it challenging to extract accurate building damage information. In this paper, we introduced an approach for rapid post-hurricane building damage detection from InSAR imagery. This approach encoded complex causal dependencies among wind, flood, building damage, and InSAR imagery using a holistic causal Bayesian network. Based on the causal Bayesian network, we further jointly inferred the large-scale unobserved building damage by fusing the information from InSAR imagery with prior physical models of flood and wind, without the need for ground truth labels. Furthermore, we validated our estimation results in a real-world devastating hurricane -- the 2022 Hurricane Ian. We gathered and annotated building damage ground truth data in Lee County, Florida, and compared the introduced method's estimation results with the ground truth and benchmarked it against state-of-the-art models to assess the effectiveness of our proposed method. Results show that our method achieves rapid and accurate detection of building damage, with significantly reduced processing time compared to traditional manual inspection methods.

HierMUD: Hierarchical Multi-task Unsupervised Domain Adaptation between Bridges for Drive-by Damage Diagnosis

Monitoring bridge health using vibrations of drive-by vehicles has various benefits, such as no need for directly installing and maintaining sensors on the bridge. However, many of the existing drive-by monitoring approaches are based on supervised learning models that require labeled data from every bridge of interest, which is expensive and time-consuming, if not impossible, to obtain. To this end, we introduce a new framework that transfers the model learned from one bridge to diagnose damage in another bridge without any labels from the target bridge. Our framework trains a hierarchical neural network model in an adversarial way to extract task-shared and task-specific features that are informative to multiple diagnostic tasks and invariant across multiple bridges. We evaluate our framework on experimental data collected from 2 bridges and 3 vehicles. We achieve accuracies of 95% for damage detection, 93% for localization, and up to 72% for quantification, which are ~2 times improvements from baseline methods.