Chess Rating Estimation from Moves and Clock Times Using a CNN-LSTM

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

Language-Informed Beam Search Decoding for Multilingual Machine Translation

Beam search decoding is the de-facto method for decoding auto-regressive Neural Machine Translation (NMT) models, including multilingual NMT where the target language is specified as an input. However, decoding multilingual NMT models commonly produces ``off-target'' translations -- yielding translation outputs not in the intended language. In this paper, we first conduct an error analysis of off-target translations for a strong multilingual NMT model and identify how these decodings are produced during beam search. We then propose Language-informed Beam Search (LiBS), a general decoding algorithm incorporating an off-the-shelf Language Identification (LiD) model into beam search decoding to reduce off-target translations. LiBS is an inference-time procedure that is NMT-model agnostic and does not require any additional parallel data. Results show that our proposed LiBS algorithm on average improves +1.1 BLEU and +0.9 BLEU on WMT and OPUS datasets, and reduces off-target rates from 22.9\% to 7.7\% and 65.8\% to 25.3\% respectively.

Adversarial Attacks on Combinatorial Multi-Armed Bandits

We study reward poisoning attacks on Combinatorial Multi-armed Bandits (CMAB). We first provide a sufficient and necessary condition for the attackability of CMAB, which depends on the intrinsic properties of the corresponding CMAB instance such as the reward distributions of super arms and outcome distributions of base arms. Additionally, we devise an attack algorithm for attackable CMAB instances. Contrary to prior understanding of multi-armed bandits, our work reveals a surprising fact that the attackability of a specific CMAB instance also depends on whether the bandit instance is known or unknown to the adversary. This finding indicates that adversarial attacks on CMAB are difficult in practice and a general attack strategy for any CMAB instance does not exist since the environment is mostly unknown to the adversary. We validate our theoretical findings via extensive experiments on real-world CMAB applications including probabilistic maximum covering problem, online minimum spanning tree, cascading bandits for online ranking, and online shortest path.

Parametrically Retargetable Decision-Makers Tend To Seek Power

If capable AI agents are generally incentivized to seek power in service of the objectives we specify for them, then these systems will pose enormous risks, in addition to enormous benefits. In fully observable environments, most reward functions have an optimal policy which seeks power by keeping options open and staying alive. However, the real world is neither fully observable, nor will agents be perfectly optimal. We consider a range of models of AI decision-making, from optimal, to random, to choices informed by learning and interacting with an environment. We discover that many decision-making functions are retargetable, and that retargetability is sufficient to cause power-seeking tendencies. Our functional criterion is simple and broad. We show that a range of qualitatively dissimilar decision-making procedures incentivize agents to seek power. We demonstrate the flexibility of our results by reasoning about learned policy incentives in Montezuma's Revenge. These results suggest a safety risk: Eventually, highly retargetable training procedures may train real-world agents which seek power over humans.

Formalizing the Problem of Side Effect Regularization

AI objectives are often hard to specify properly. Some approaches tackle this problem by regularizing the AI's side effects: Agents must weigh off "how much of a mess they make" with an imperfectly specified proxy objective. We propose a formal criterion for side effect regularization via the assistance game framework. In these games, the agent solves a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) representing its uncertainty about the objective function it should optimize. We consider the setting where the true objective is revealed to the agent at a later time step. We show that this POMDP is solved by trading off the proxy reward with the agent's ability to achieve a range of future tasks. We empirically demonstrate the reasonableness of our problem formalization via ground-truth evaluation in two gridworld environments.

Explainable Models via Compression of Tree Ensembles

Ensemble models (bagging and gradient-boosting) of relational decision trees have proved to be one of the most effective learning methods in the area of probabilistic logic models (PLMs). While effective, they lose one of the most important aspect of PLMs -- interpretability. In this paper we consider the problem of compressing a large set of learned trees into a single explainable model. To this effect, we propose CoTE -- Compression of Tree Ensembles -- that produces a single small decision list as a compressed representation. CoTE first converts the trees to decision lists and then performs the combination and compression with the aid of the original training set. An experimental evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of CoTE in several benchmark relational data sets.

Dynamic probabilistic logic models for effective abstractions in RL

State abstraction enables sample-efficient learning and better task transfer in complex reinforcement learning environments. Recently, we proposed RePReL (Kokel et al. 2021), a hierarchical framework that leverages a relational planner to provide useful state abstractions for learning. We present a brief overview of this framework and the use of a dynamic probabilistic logic model to design these state abstractions. Our experiments show that RePReL not only achieves better performance and efficient learning on the task at hand but also demonstrates better generalization to unseen tasks.

From Heatmaps to Structural Explanations of Image Classifiers

This paper summarizes our endeavors in the past few years in terms of explaining image classifiers, with the aim of including negative results and insights we have gained. The paper starts with describing the explainable neural network (XNN), which attempts to extract and visualize several high-level concepts purely from the deep network, without relying on human linguistic concepts. This helps users understand network classifications that are less intuitive and substantially improves user performance on a difficult fine-grained classification task of discriminating among different species of seagulls. Realizing that an important missing piece is a reliable heatmap visualization tool, we have developed I-GOS and iGOS++ utilizing integrated gradients to avoid local optima in heatmap generation, which improved the performance across all resolutions. During the development of those visualizations, we realized that for a significant number of images, the classifier has multiple different paths to reach a confident prediction. This has lead to our recent development of structured attention graphs (SAGs), an approach that utilizes beam search to locate multiple coarse heatmaps for a single image, and compactly visualizes a set of heatmaps by capturing how different combinations of image regions impact the confidence of a classifier. Through the research process, we have learned much about insights in building deep network explanations, the existence and frequency of multiple explanations, and various tricks of the trade that make explanations work. In this paper, we attempt to share those insights and opinions with the readers with the hope that some of them will be informative for future researchers on explainable deep learning.

Improving Multilingual Translation by Representation and Gradient Regularization

Multilingual Neural Machine Translation (NMT) enables one model to serve all translation directions, including ones that are unseen during training, i.e. zero-shot translation. Despite being theoretically attractive, current models often produce low quality translations -- commonly failing to even produce outputs in the right target language. In this work, we observe that off-target translation is dominant even in strong multilingual systems, trained on massive multilingual corpora. To address this issue, we propose a joint approach to regularize NMT models at both representation-level and gradient-level. At the representation level, we leverage an auxiliary target language prediction task to regularize decoder outputs to retain information about the target language. At the gradient level, we leverage a small amount of direct data (in thousands of sentence pairs) to regularize model gradients. Our results demonstrate that our approach is highly effective in both reducing off-target translation occurrences and improving zero-shot translation performance by +5.59 and +10.38 BLEU on WMT and OPUS datasets respectively. Moreover, experiments show that our method also works well when the small amount of direct data is not available.

Structured Attention Graphs for Understanding Deep Image Classifications

Attention maps are a popular way of explaining the decisions of convolutional networks for image classification. Typically, for each image of interest, a single attention map is produced, which assigns weights to pixels based on their importance to the classification. A single attention map, however, provides an incomplete understanding since there are often many other maps that explain a classification equally well. In this paper, we introduce structured attention graphs (SAGs), which compactly represent sets of attention maps for an image by capturing how different combinations of image regions impact a classifier's confidence. We propose an approach to compute SAGs and a visualization for SAGs so that deeper insight can be gained into a classifier's decisions. We conduct a user study comparing the use of SAGs to traditional attention maps for answering counterfactual questions about image classifications. Our results show that the users are more correct when answering comparative counterfactual questions based on SAGs compared to the baselines.