Which Imputation Fits Which Feature Selection Method? A Survey-Based Simulation Study

Tree-based learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost are still the gold-standard prediction methods for tabular data. Feature importance measures are usually considered for feature selection as well as to assess the effect of features on the outcome variables in the model. This also applies to survey data, which are frequently encountered in the social sciences and official statistics. These types of datasets often present the challenge of missing values. The typical solution is to impute the missing data before applying the learning method. However, given the large number of possible imputation methods available, the question arises as to which should be chosen to achieve the 'best' reflection of feature importance and feature selection in subsequent analyses. In the present paper, we investigate this question in a survey-based simulation study for eight state-of-the art imputation methods and three learners. The imputation methods comprise listwise deletion, three MICE options, four \texttt{missRanger} options as well as the recently proposed mixGBoost imputation approach. As learners, we consider the two most common tree-based methods, Random Forest and XGBoost, and an interpretable linear model with regularization.

A Central Limit Theorem for the permutation importance measure

Random Forests have become a widely used tool in machine learning since their introduction in 2001, known for their strong performance in classification and regression tasks. One key feature of Random Forests is the Random Forest Permutation Importance Measure (RFPIM), an internal, non-parametric measure of variable importance. While widely used, theoretical work on RFPIM is sparse, and most research has focused on empirical findings. However, recent progress has been made, such as establishing consistency of the RFPIM, although a mathematical analysis of its asymptotic distribution is still missing. In this paper, we provide a formal proof of a Central Limit Theorem for RFPIM using U-Statistics theory. Our approach deviates from the conventional Random Forest model by assuming a random number of trees and imposing conditions on the regression functions and error terms, which must be bounded and additive, respectively. Our result aims at improving the theoretical understanding of RFPIM rather than conducting comprehensive hypothesis testing. However, our contributions provide a solid foundation and demonstrate the potential for future work to extend to practical applications which we also highlight with a small simulation study.

Is GPT-4 Less Politically Biased than GPT-3.5? A Renewed Investigation of ChatGPT's Political Biases

This work investigates the political biases and personality traits of ChatGPT, specifically comparing GPT-3.5 to GPT-4. In addition, the ability of the models to emulate political viewpoints (e.g., liberal or conservative positions) is analyzed. The Political Compass Test and the Big Five Personality Test were employed 100 times for each scenario, providing statistically significant results and an insight into the results correlations. The responses were analyzed by computing averages, standard deviations, and performing significance tests to investigate differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Correlations were found for traits that have been shown to be interdependent in human studies. Both models showed a progressive and libertarian political bias, with GPT-4's biases being slightly, but negligibly, less pronounced. Specifically, on the Political Compass, GPT-3.5 scored -6.59 on the economic axis and -6.07 on the social axis, whereas GPT-4 scored -5.40 and -4.73. In contrast to GPT-3.5, GPT-4 showed a remarkable capacity to emulate assigned political viewpoints, accurately reflecting the assigned quadrant (libertarian-left, libertarian-right, authoritarian-left, authoritarian-right) in all four tested instances. On the Big Five Personality Test, GPT-3.5 showed highly pronounced Openness and Agreeableness traits (O: 85.9%, A: 84.6%). Such pronounced traits correlate with libertarian views in human studies. While GPT-4 overall exhibited less pronounced Big Five personality traits, it did show a notably higher Neuroticism score. Assigned political orientations influenced Openness, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness, again reflecting interdependencies observed in human studies. Finally, we observed that test sequencing affected ChatGPT's responses and the observed correlations, indicating a form of contextual memory.

AR-Sieve Bootstrap for the Random Forest and a simulation-based comparison with rangerts time series prediction

The Random Forest (RF) algorithm can be applied to a broad spectrum of problems, including time series prediction. However, neither the classical IID (Independent and Identically distributed) bootstrap nor block bootstrapping strategies (as implemented in rangerts) completely account for the nature of the Data Generating Process (DGP) while resampling the observations. We propose the combination of RF with a residual bootstrapping technique where we replace the IID bootstrap with the AR-Sieve Bootstrap (ARSB), which assumes the DGP to be an autoregressive process. To assess the new model's predictive performance, we conduct a simulation study using synthetic data generated from different types of DGPs. It turns out that ARSB provides more variation amongst the trees in the forest. Moreover, RF with ARSB shows greater accuracy compared to RF with other bootstrap strategies. However, these improvements are achieved at some efficiency costs.

TREE: Tree Regularization for Efficient Execution

The rise of machine learning methods on heavily resource constrained devices requires not only the choice of a suitable model architecture for the target platform, but also the optimization of the chosen model with regard to execution time consumption for inference in order to optimally utilize the available resources. Random forests and decision trees are shown to be a suitable model for such a scenario, since they are not only heavily tunable towards the total model size, but also offer a high potential for optimizing their executions according to the underlying memory architecture. In addition to the straightforward strategy of enforcing shorter paths through decision trees and hence reducing the execution time for inference, hardware-aware implementations can optimize the execution time in an orthogonal manner. One particular hardware-aware optimization is to layout the memory of decision trees in such a way, that higher probably paths are less likely to be evicted from system caches. This works particularly well when splits within tree nodes are uneven and have a high probability to visit one of the child nodes. In this paper, we present a method to reduce path lengths by rewarding uneven probability distributions during the training of decision trees at the cost of a minimal accuracy degradation. Specifically, we regularize the impurity computation of the CART algorithm in order to favor not only low impurity, but also highly asymmetric distributions for the evaluation of split criteria and hence offer a high optimization potential for a memory architecture-aware implementation. We show that especially for binary classification data sets and data sets with many samples, this form of regularization can lead to an reduction of up to approximately four times in the execution time with a minimal accuracy degradation.

Behind the Screen: Investigating ChatGPT's Dark Personality Traits and Conspiracy Beliefs

ChatGPT is notorious for its intransparent behavior. This paper tries to shed light on this, providing an in-depth analysis of the dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs of GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. Different psychological tests and questionnaires were employed, including the Dark Factor Test, the Mach-IV Scale, the Generic Conspiracy Belief Scale, and the Conspiracy Mentality Scale. The responses were analyzed computing average scores, standard deviations, and significance tests to investigate differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. For traits that have shown to be interdependent in human studies, correlations were considered. Additionally, system roles corresponding to groups that have shown distinct answering behavior in the corresponding questionnaires were applied to examine the models' ability to reflect characteristics associated with these roles in their responses. Dark personality traits and conspiracy beliefs were not particularly pronounced in either model with little differences between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4. However, GPT-4 showed a pronounced tendency to believe in information withholding. This is particularly intriguing given that GPT-4 is trained on a significantly larger dataset than GPT-3.5. Apparently, in this case an increased data exposure correlates with a greater belief in the control of information. An assignment of extreme political affiliations increased the belief in conspiracy theories. Test sequencing affected the models' responses and the observed correlations, indicating a form of contextual memory.

Evaluating tree-based imputation methods as an alternative to MICE PMM for drawing inference in empirical studies

Dealing with missing data is an important problem in statistical analysis that is often addressed with imputation procedures. The performance and validity of such methods are of great importance for their application in empirical studies. While the prevailing method of Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) with Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) is considered standard in the social science literature, the increase in complex datasets may require more advanced approaches based on machine learning. In particular, tree-based imputation methods have emerged as very competitive approaches. However, the performance and validity are not completely understood, particularly compared to the standard MICE PMM. This is especially true for inference in linear models. In this study, we investigate the impact of various imputation methods on coefficient estimation, Type I error, and power, to gain insights that can help empirical researchers deal with missingness more effectively. We explore MICE PMM alongside different tree-based methods, such as MICE with Random Forest (RF), Chained Random Forests with and without PMM (missRanger), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (MIXGBoost), conducting a realistic simulation study using the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) as the original data source. Our results reveal that Random Forest-based imputations, especially MICE RF and missRanger with PMM, consistently perform better in most scenarios. Standard MICE PMM shows partially increased bias and overly conservative test decisions, particularly with non-true zero coefficients. Our results thus underscore the potential advantages of tree-based imputation methods, albeit with a caveat that all methods perform worse with an increased missingness, particularly missRanger.

The Self-Perception and Political Biases of ChatGPT

This contribution analyzes the self-perception and political biases of OpenAI's Large Language Model ChatGPT. Taking into account the first small-scale reports and studies that have emerged, claiming that ChatGPT is politically biased towards progressive and libertarian points of view, this contribution aims to provide further clarity on this subject. For this purpose, ChatGPT was asked to answer the questions posed by the political compass test as well as similar questionnaires that are specific to the respective politics of the G7 member states. These eight tests were repeated ten times each and revealed that ChatGPT seems to hold a bias towards progressive views. The political compass test revealed a bias towards progressive and libertarian views, with the average coordinates on the political compass being (-6.48, -5.99) (with (0, 0) the center of the compass, i.e., centrism and the axes ranging from -10 to 10), supporting the claims of prior research. The political questionnaires for the G7 member states indicated a bias towards progressive views but no significant bias between authoritarian and libertarian views, contradicting the findings of prior reports, with the average coordinates being (-3.27, 0.58). In addition, ChatGPT's Big Five personality traits were tested using the OCEAN test and its personality type was queried using the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) test. Finally, the maliciousness of ChatGPT was evaluated using the Dark Factor test. These three tests were also repeated ten times each, revealing that ChatGPT perceives itself as highly open and agreeable, has the Myers-Briggs personality type ENFJ, and is among the 15% of test-takers with the least pronounced dark traits.

RODD: Robust Outlier Detection in Data Cubes

Data cubes are multidimensional databases, often built from several separate databases, that serve as flexible basis for data analysis. Surprisingly, outlier detection on data cubes has not yet been treated extensively. In this work, we provide the first framework to evaluate robust outlier detection methods in data cubes (RODD). We introduce a novel random forest-based outlier detection approach (RODD-RF) and compare it with more traditional methods based on robust location estimators. We propose a general type of test data and examine all methods in a simulation study. Moreover, we apply ROOD-RF to real world data. The results show that RODD-RF can lead to improved outlier detection.

Comparing statistical and machine learning methods for time series forecasting in data-driven logistics -- A simulation study

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various forecasting methods in terms of out of the box forecasting performance on a broad set of simulated time series. We simulate various linear and non-linear time series and look at the one step forecast performance of statistical learning methods.