Disease Outbreak Detection and Forecasting: A Review of Methods and Data Sources

Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However, early detection and tracking of these outbreaks have the potential to reduce the mortality impact. To address these threats, public health authorities have endeavored to establish comprehensive mechanisms for collecting disease data. Many countries have implemented infectious disease surveillance systems, with the detection of epidemics being a primary objective. The clinical healthcare system, local/state health agencies, federal agencies, academic/professional groups, and collaborating governmental entities all play pivotal roles within this system. Moreover, nowadays, search engines and social media platforms can serve as valuable tools for monitoring disease trends. The Internet and social media have become significant platforms where users share information about their preferences and relationships. This real-time information can be harnessed to gauge the influence of ideas and societal opinions, making it highly useful across various domains and research areas, such as marketing campaigns, financial predictions, and public health, among others. This article provides a review of the existing standard methods developed by researchers for detecting outbreaks using time series data. These methods leverage various data sources, including conventional data sources and social media data or Internet data sources. The review particularly concentrates on works published within the timeframe of 2015 to 2022.

Knowledge-Aware Conversation Derailment Forecasting Using Graph Convolutional Networks

Online conversations are particularly susceptible to derailment, which can manifest itself in the form of toxic communication patterns including disrespectful comments and abuse. Forecasting conversation derailment predicts signs of derailment in advance enabling proactive moderation of conversations. State-of-the-art approaches to conversation derailment forecasting sequentially encode conversations and use graph neural networks to model dialogue user dynamics. However, existing graph models are not able to capture complex conversational characteristics such as context propagation and emotional shifts. The use of common sense knowledge enables a model to capture such characteristics, thus improving performance. Following this approach, here we derive commonsense statements from a knowledge base of dialogue contextual information to enrich a graph neural network classification architecture. We fuse the multi-source information on utterance into capsules, which are used by a transformer-based forecaster to predict conversation derailment. Our model captures conversation dynamics and context propagation, outperforming the state-of-the-art models on the CGA and CMV benchmark datasets

LearnedWMP: Workload Memory Prediction Using Distribution of Query Templates

In a modern DBMS, working memory is frequently the limiting factor when processing in-memory analytic query operations such as joins, sorting, and aggregation. Existing resource estimation approaches for a DBMS estimate the resource consumption of a query by computing an estimate of each individual database operator in the query execution plan. Such an approach is slow and error-prone as it relies upon simplifying assumptions, such as uniformity and independence of the underlying data. Additionally, the existing approach focuses on individual queries separately and does not factor in other queries in the workload that may be executed concurrently. In this research, we are interested in query performance optimization under concurrent execution of a batch of queries (a workload). Specifically, we focus on predicting the memory demand for a workload rather than providing separate estimates for each query within it. We introduce the problem of workload memory prediction and formalize it as a distribution regression problem. We propose Learned Workload Memory Prediction (LearnedWMP) to improve and simplify estimating the working memory demands of workloads. Through a comprehensive experimental evaluation, we show that LearnedWMP reduces the memory estimation error of the state-of-the-practice method by up to 47.6%. Compared to an alternative single-query model, during training and inferencing, the LearnedWMP model and its variants were 3x to 10x faster. Moreover, LearnedWMP-based models were at least 50% smaller in most cases. Overall, the results demonstrate the advantages of the LearnedWMP approach and its potential for a broader impact on query performance optimization.

Predicting Evoked Emotions in Conversations

Understanding and predicting the emotional trajectory in multi-party multi-turn conversations is of great significance. Such information can be used, for example, to generate empathetic response in human-machine interaction or to inform models of pre-emptive toxicity detection. In this work, we introduce the novel problem of Predicting Emotions in Conversations (PEC) for the next turn (n+1), given combinations of textual and/or emotion input up to turn n. We systematically approach the problem by modeling three dimensions inherently connected to evoked emotions in dialogues, including (i) sequence modeling, (ii) self-dependency modeling, and (iii) recency modeling. These modeling dimensions are then incorporated into two deep neural network architectures, a sequence model and a graph convolutional network model. The former is designed to capture the sequence of utterances in a dialogue, while the latter captures the sequence of utterances and the network formation of multi-party dialogues. We perform a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the various proposed models for addressing the PEC problem. The results indicate (i) the importance of the self-dependency and recency model dimensions for the prediction task, (ii) the quality of simpler sequence models in short dialogues, (iii) the importance of the graph neural models in improving the predictions in long dialogues.

Conversation Derailment Forecasting with Graph Convolutional Networks

Online conversations are particularly susceptible to derailment, which can manifest itself in the form of toxic communication patterns like disrespectful comments or verbal abuse. Forecasting conversation derailment predicts signs of derailment in advance enabling proactive moderation of conversations. Current state-of-the-art approaches to address this problem rely on sequence models that treat dialogues as text streams. We propose a novel model based on a graph convolutional neural network that considers dialogue user dynamics and the influence of public perception on conversation utterances. Through empirical evaluation, we show that our model effectively captures conversation dynamics and outperforms the state-of-the-art models on the CGA and CMV benchmark datasets by 1.5\% and 1.7\%, respectively.

Industry and Academic Research in Computer Vision

This work aims to study the dynamic between research in the industry and academia in computer vision. The results are demonstrated on a set of top-5 vision conferences that are representative of the field. Since data for such analysis was not readily available, significant effort was spent on gathering and processing meta-data from the original publications. First, this study quantifies the share of industry-sponsored research. Specifically, it shows that the proportion of papers published by industry-affiliated researchers is increasing and that more academics join companies or collaborate with them. Next, the possible impact of industry presence is further explored, namely in the distribution of research topics and citation patterns. The results indicate that the distribution of the research topics is similar in industry and academic papers. However, there is a strong preference towards citing industry papers. Finally, possible reasons for citation bias, such as code availability and influence, are investigated.

Elastic Bulk Synchronous Parallel Model for Distributed Deep Learning

The bulk synchronous parallel (BSP) is a celebrated synchronization model for general-purpose parallel computing that has successfully been employed for distributed training of machine learning models. A prevalent shortcoming of the BSP is that it requires workers to wait for the straggler at every iteration. To ameliorate this shortcoming of classic BSP, we propose ELASTICBSP a model that aims to relax its strict synchronization requirement. The proposed model offers more flexibility and adaptability during the training phase, without sacrificing on the accuracy of the trained model. We also propose an efficient method that materializes the model, named ZIPLINE. The algorithm is tunable and can effectively balance the trade-off between quality of convergence and iteration throughput, in order to accommodate different environments or applications. A thorough experimental evaluation demonstrates that our proposed ELASTICBSP model converges faster and to a higher accuracy than the classic BSP. It also achieves comparable (if not higher) accuracy than the other sensible synchronization models.

Scene Classification in Indoor Environments for Robots using Context Based Word Embeddings

Scene Classification has been addressed with numerous techniques in computer vision literature. However, with the increasing number of scene classes in datasets in the field, it has become difficult to achieve high accuracy in the context of robotics. In this paper, we implement an approach which combines traditional deep learning techniques with natural language processing methods to generate a word embedding based Scene Classification algorithm. We use the key idea that context (objects in the scene) of an image should be representative of the scene label meaning a group of objects could assist to predict the scene class. Objects present in the scene are represented by vectors and the images are re-classified based on the objects present in the scene to refine the initial classification by a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). In our approach we address indoor Scene Classification task using a model trained with a reduced pre-processed version of the Places365 dataset and an empirical analysis is done on a real-world dataset that we built by capturing image sequences using a GoPro camera. We also report results obtained on a subset of the Places365 dataset using our approach and additionally show a deployment of our approach on a robot operating in a real-world environment.