Likelihood-Ratio Regularized Quantile Regression: Adapting Conformal Prediction to High-Dimensional Covariate Shifts

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, and an image classification task from the WILDS repository.

Decision Theoretic Foundations for Conformal Prediction: Optimal Uncertainty Quantification for Risk-Averse Agents

A fundamental question in data-driven decision making is how to quantify the uncertainty of predictions in ways that can usefully inform downstream action. This interface between prediction uncertainty and decision-making is especially important in risk-sensitive domains, such as medicine. In this paper, we develop decision-theoretic foundations that connect uncertainty quantification using prediction sets with risk-averse decision-making. Specifically, we answer three fundamental questions: (1) What is the correct notion of uncertainty quantification for risk-averse decision makers? We prove that prediction sets are optimal for decision makers who wish to optimize their value at risk. (2) What is the optimal policy that a risk averse decision maker should use to map prediction sets to actions? We show that a simple max-min decision policy is optimal for risk-averse decision makers. Finally, (3) How can we derive prediction sets that are optimal for such decision makers? We provide an exact characterization in the population regime and a distribution free finite-sample construction. Answering these questions naturally leads to an algorithm, Risk-Averse Calibration (RAC), which follows a provably optimal design for deriving action policies from predictions. RAC is designed to be both practical-capable of leveraging the quality of predictions in a black-box manner to enhance downstream utility-and safe-adhering to a user-defined risk threshold and optimizing the corresponding risk quantile of the user's downstream utility. Finally, we experimentally demonstrate the significant advantages of RAC in applications such as medical diagnosis and recommendation systems. Specifically, we show that RAC achieves a substantially improved trade-off between safety and utility, offering higher utility compared to existing methods while maintaining the safety guarantee.

Adversarial Reasoning at Jailbreaking Time

As large language models (LLMs) are becoming more capable and widespread, the study of their failure cases is becoming increasingly important. Recent advances in standardizing, measuring, and scaling test-time compute suggest new methodologies for optimizing models to achieve high performance on hard tasks. In this paper, we apply these advances to the task of model jailbreaking: eliciting harmful responses from aligned LLMs. We develop an adversarial reasoning approach to automatic jailbreaking via test-time computation that achieves SOTA attack success rates (ASR) against many aligned LLMs, even the ones that aim to trade inference-time compute for adversarial robustness. Our approach introduces a new paradigm in understanding LLM vulnerabilities, laying the foundation for the development of more robust and trustworthy AI systems.

Symmetries-enhanced Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Multi-agent reinforcement learning has emerged as a powerful framework for enabling agents to learn complex, coordinated behaviors but faces persistent challenges regarding its generalization, scalability and sample efficiency. Recent advancements have sought to alleviate those issues by embedding intrinsic symmetries of the systems in the policy. Yet, most dynamical systems exhibit little to no symmetries to exploit. This paper presents a novel framework for embedding extrinsic symmetries in multi-agent system dynamics that enables the use of symmetry-enhanced methods to address systems with insufficient intrinsic symmetries, expanding the scope of equivariant learning to a wide variety of MARL problems. Central to our framework is the Group Equivariant Graphormer, a group-modular architecture specifically designed for distributed swarming tasks. Extensive experiments on a swarm of symmetry-breaking quadrotors validate the effectiveness of our approach, showcasing its potential for improved generalization and zero-shot scalability. Our method achieves significant reductions in collision rates and enhances task success rates across a diverse range of scenarios and varying swarm sizes.

STLGame: Signal Temporal Logic Games in Adversarial Multi-Agent Systems

We study how to synthesize a robust and safe policy for autonomous systems under signal temporal logic (STL) tasks in adversarial settings against unknown dynamic agents. To ensure the worst-case STL satisfaction, we propose STLGame, a framework that models the multi-agent system as a two-player zero-sum game, where the ego agents try to maximize the STL satisfaction and other agents minimize it. STLGame aims to find a Nash equilibrium policy profile, which is the best case in terms of robustness against unseen opponent policies, by using the fictitious self-play (FSP) framework. FSP iteratively converges to a Nash profile, even in games set in continuous state-action spaces. We propose a gradient-based method with differentiable STL formulas, which is crucial in continuous settings to approximate the best responses at each iteration of FSP. We show this key aspect experimentally by comparing with reinforcement learning-based methods to find the best response. Experiments on two standard dynamical system benchmarks, Ackermann steering vehicles and autonomous drones, demonstrate that our converged policy is almost unexploitable and robust to various unseen opponents' policies. All code and additional experimental results can be found on our project website: https://sites.google.com/view/stlgame

Length Optimization in Conformal Prediction

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Achieving conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the prediction sets remain informative and non-trivial. Despite significant efforts to address each of these issues individually, a principled framework that reconciles these two objectives has been missing in the CP literature. In this paper, we develop Conformal Prediction with Length-Optimization (CPL) - a novel framework that constructs prediction sets with (near-) optimal length while ensuring conditional validity under various classes of covariate shifts, including the key cases of marginal and group-conditional coverage. In the infinite sample regime, we provide strong duality results which indicate that CPL achieves conditional validity and length optimality. In the finite sample regime, we show that CPL constructs conditionally valid prediction sets. Our extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate the superior prediction set size performance of CPL compared to state-of-the-art methods across diverse real-world and synthetic datasets in classification, regression, and text-related settings.

Explicitly Encoding Structural Symmetry is Key to Length Generalization in Arithmetic Tasks

Despite the success of Transformers on language understanding, code generation, and logical reasoning, they still fail to generalize over length on basic arithmetic tasks such as addition and multiplication. A major reason behind this failure is the vast difference in structure between numbers and text; For example, the numbers are typically parsed from right to left, and there is a correspondence between digits at the same position across different numbers. In contrast, for text, such symmetries are quite unnatural. In this work, we propose to encode these semantics explicitly into the model via modified number formatting and custom positional encodings. Empirically, our method allows a Transformer trained on numbers with at most 5-digits for addition and multiplication to generalize up to 50-digit numbers, without using additional data for longer sequences. We further demonstrate that traditional absolute positional encodings (APE) fail to generalize to longer sequences, even when trained with augmented data that captures task symmetries. To elucidate the importance of explicitly encoding structure, we prove that explicit incorporation of structure via positional encodings is necessary for out-of-distribution generalization. Finally, we pinpoint other challenges inherent to length generalization beyond capturing symmetries, in particular complexity of the underlying task, and propose changes in the training distribution to address them.

Conformal Prediction with Learned Features

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, relying on some predefined uncertainty structures. Departing from this line of thinking, we propose Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP), a framework to improve conditional validity of prediction sets through learning uncertainty-guided features from the calibration data. We implement PLCP efficiently with alternating gradient descent, utilizing off-the-shelf machine learning models. We further analyze PLCP theoretically and provide conditional guarantees for infinite and finite sample sizes. Finally, our experimental results over four real-world and synthetic datasets show the superior performance of PLCP compared to state-of-the-art methods in terms of coverage and length in both classification and regression scenarios.

Navigation with shadow prices to optimize multi-commodity flow rates

We propose a method for providing communication network infrastructure in autonomous multi-agent teams. In particular, we consider a set of communication agents that are placed alongside regular agents from the system in order to improve the rate of information transfer between the latter. In order to find the optimal positions to place such agents, we define a flexible performance function that adapts to network requirements for different systems. We provide an algorithm based on shadow prices of a related convex optimization problem in order to drive the configuration of the complete system towards a local maximum. We apply our method to three different performance functions associated with three practical scenarios in which we show both the performance of the algorithm and the flexibility it allows for optimizing different network requirements.

Optimal Scene Graph Planning with Large Language Model Guidance

Recent advances in metric, semantic, and topological mapping have equipped autonomous robots with semantic concept grounding capabilities to interpret natural language tasks. This work aims to leverage these new capabilities with an efficient task planning algorithm for hierarchical metric-semantic models. We consider a scene graph representation of the environment and utilize a large language model (LLM) to convert a natural language task into a linear temporal logic (LTL) automaton. Our main contribution is to enable optimal hierarchical LTL planning with LLM guidance over scene graphs. To achieve efficiency, we construct a hierarchical planning domain that captures the attributes and connectivity of the scene graph and the task automaton, and provide semantic guidance via an LLM heuristic function. To guarantee optimality, we design an LTL heuristic function that is provably consistent and supplements the potentially inadmissible LLM guidance in multi-heuristic planning. We demonstrate efficient planning of complex natural language tasks in scene graphs of virtualized real environments.