Length Optimization in Conformal Prediction

Conditional validity and length efficiency are two crucial aspects of conformal prediction (CP). Achieving conditional validity ensures accurate uncertainty quantification for data subpopulations, while proper length efficiency ensures that the prediction sets remain informative and non-trivial. Despite significant efforts to address each of these issues individually, a principled framework that reconciles these two objectives has been missing in the CP literature. In this paper, we develop Conformal Prediction with Length-Optimization (CPL) - a novel framework that constructs prediction sets with (near-) optimal length while ensuring conditional validity under various classes of covariate shifts, including the key cases of marginal and group-conditional coverage. In the infinite sample regime, we provide strong duality results which indicate that CPL achieves conditional validity and length optimality. In the finite sample regime, we show that CPL constructs conditionally valid prediction sets. Our extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate the superior prediction set size performance of CPL compared to state-of-the-art methods across diverse real-world and synthetic datasets in classification, regression, and text-related settings.

Explicitly Encoding Structural Symmetry is Key to Length Generalization in Arithmetic Tasks

Despite the success of Transformers on language understanding, code generation, and logical reasoning, they still fail to generalize over length on basic arithmetic tasks such as addition and multiplication. A major reason behind this failure is the vast difference in structure between numbers and text; For example, the numbers are typically parsed from right to left, and there is a correspondence between digits at the same position across different numbers. In contrast, for text, such symmetries are quite unnatural. In this work, we propose to encode these semantics explicitly into the model via modified number formatting and custom positional encodings. Empirically, our method allows a Transformer trained on numbers with at most 5-digits for addition and multiplication to generalize up to 50-digit numbers, without using additional data for longer sequences. We further demonstrate that traditional absolute positional encodings (APE) fail to generalize to longer sequences, even when trained with augmented data that captures task symmetries. To elucidate the importance of explicitly encoding structure, we prove that explicit incorporation of structure via positional encodings is necessary for out-of-distribution generalization. Finally, we pinpoint other challenges inherent to length generalization beyond capturing symmetries, in particular complexity of the underlying task, and propose changes in the training distribution to address them.

Conformal Prediction with Learned Features

In this paper, we focus on the problem of conformal prediction with conditional guarantees. Prior work has shown that it is impossible to construct nontrivial prediction sets with full conditional coverage guarantees. A wealth of research has considered relaxations of full conditional guarantees, relying on some predefined uncertainty structures. Departing from this line of thinking, we propose Partition Learning Conformal Prediction (PLCP), a framework to improve conditional validity of prediction sets through learning uncertainty-guided features from the calibration data. We implement PLCP efficiently with alternating gradient descent, utilizing off-the-shelf machine learning models. We further analyze PLCP theoretically and provide conditional guarantees for infinite and finite sample sizes. Finally, our experimental results over four real-world and synthetic datasets show the superior performance of PLCP compared to state-of-the-art methods in terms of coverage and length in both classification and regression scenarios.

Navigation with shadow prices to optimize multi-commodity flow rates

We propose a method for providing communication network infrastructure in autonomous multi-agent teams. In particular, we consider a set of communication agents that are placed alongside regular agents from the system in order to improve the rate of information transfer between the latter. In order to find the optimal positions to place such agents, we define a flexible performance function that adapts to network requirements for different systems. We provide an algorithm based on shadow prices of a related convex optimization problem in order to drive the configuration of the complete system towards a local maximum. We apply our method to three different performance functions associated with three practical scenarios in which we show both the performance of the algorithm and the flexibility it allows for optimizing different network requirements.

Optimal Scene Graph Planning with Large Language Model Guidance

Recent advances in metric, semantic, and topological mapping have equipped autonomous robots with semantic concept grounding capabilities to interpret natural language tasks. This work aims to leverage these new capabilities with an efficient task planning algorithm for hierarchical metric-semantic models. We consider a scene graph representation of the environment and utilize a large language model (LLM) to convert a natural language task into a linear temporal logic (LTL) automaton. Our main contribution is to enable optimal hierarchical LTL planning with LLM guidance over scene graphs. To achieve efficiency, we construct a hierarchical planning domain that captures the attributes and connectivity of the scene graph and the task automaton, and provide semantic guidance via an LLM heuristic function. To guarantee optimality, we design an LTL heuristic function that is provably consistent and supplements the potentially inadmissible LLM guidance in multi-heuristic planning. We demonstrate efficient planning of complex natural language tasks in scene graphs of virtualized real environments.

Resilient Consensus via Voronoi Communication Graphs

Consensus algorithms form the foundation for many distributed algorithms by enabling multiple robots to converge to consistent estimates of global variables using only local communication. However, standard consensus protocols can be easily led astray by non-cooperative team members. As such, the study of resilient forms of consensus is necessary for designing resilient distributed algorithms. W-MSR consensus is one such resilient consensus algorithm that allows for resilient consensus with only local knowledge of the communication graph and no a priori model for the data being shared. However, the verification that a given communication graph meets the strict graph connectivity requirement makes W-MSR difficult to use in practice. In this paper, we show that a commonly used communication graph structure in robotics literature, the communication graph built based on the Voronoi tessellation, automatically results in a sufficiently connected graph to reject a single non-cooperative team member. Further, we show how this graph can be enhanced to reject two non-cooperative team members and provide a roadmap for modifications for further resilience. This contribution will allow for the easy application of resilient consensus to algorithms that already rely on Voronoi-based communication such as distributed coverage and exploration algorithms.

Adaptive Sampling of Latent Phenomena using Heterogeneous Robot Teams (ASLaP-HR)

In this paper, we present an online adaptive planning strategy for a team of robots with heterogeneous sensors to sample from a latent spatial field using a learned model for decision making. Current robotic sampling methods seek to gather information about an observable spatial field. However, many applications, such as environmental monitoring and precision agriculture, involve phenomena that are not directly observable or are costly to measure, called latent phenomena. In our approach, we seek to reason about the latent phenomenon in real-time by effectively sampling the observable spatial fields using a team of robots with heterogeneous sensors, where each robot has a distinct sensor to measure a different observable field. The information gain is estimated using a learned model that maps from the observable spatial fields to the latent phenomenon. This model captures aleatoric uncertainty in the relationship to allow for information theoretic measures. Additionally, we explicitly consider the correlations among the observable spatial fields, capturing the relationship between sensor types whose observations are not independent. We show it is possible to learn these correlations, and investigate the impact of the learned correlation models on the performance of our sampling approach. Through our qualitative and quantitative results, we illustrate that empirically learned correlations improve the overall sampling efficiency of the team. We simulate our approach using a data set of sensor measurements collected on Lac Hertel, in Quebec, which we make publicly available.

Toward Certified Robustness Against Real-World Distribution Shifts

We consider the problem of certifying the robustness of deep neural networks against real-world distribution shifts. To do so, we bridge the gap between hand-crafted specifications and realistic deployment settings by proposing a novel neural-symbolic verification framework, in which we train a generative model to learn perturbations from data and define specifications with respect to the output of the learned model. A unique challenge arising from this setting is that existing verifiers cannot tightly approximate sigmoid activations, which are fundamental to many state-of-the-art generative models. To address this challenge, we propose a general meta-algorithm for handling sigmoid activations which leverages classical notions of counter-example-guided abstraction refinement. The key idea is to "lazily" refine the abstraction of sigmoid functions to exclude spurious counter-examples found in the previous abstraction, thus guaranteeing progress in the verification process while keeping the state-space small. Experiments on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets show that our framework significantly outperforms existing methods on a range of challenging distribution shifts.

Exploiting Heterogeneity in Robust Federated Best-Arm Identification

We study a federated variant of the best-arm identification problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits: a set of clients, each of whom can sample only a subset of the arms, collaborate via a server to identify the best arm (i.e., the arm with the highest mean reward) with prescribed confidence. For this problem, we propose Fed-SEL, a simple communication-efficient algorithm that builds on successive elimination techniques and involves local sampling steps at the clients. To study the performance of Fed-SEL, we introduce a notion of arm-heterogeneity that captures the level of dissimilarity between distributions of arms corresponding to different clients. Interestingly, our analysis reveals the benefits of arm-heterogeneity in reducing both the sample- and communication-complexity of Fed-SEL. As a special case of our analysis, we show that for certain heterogeneous problem instances, Fed-SEL outputs the best-arm after just one round of communication. Our findings have the following key implication: unlike federated supervised learning where recent work has shown that statistical heterogeneity can lead to poor performance, one can provably reap the benefits of both local computation and heterogeneity for federated best-arm identification. As our final contribution, we develop variants of Fed-SEL, both for federated and peer-to-peer settings, that are robust to the presence of Byzantine clients, and hence suitable for deployment in harsh, adversarial environments.

Autoencoder-driven Spiral Representation Learning for Gravitational Wave Surrogate Modelling

Recently, artificial neural networks have been gaining momentum in the field of gravitational wave astronomy, for example in surrogate modelling of computationally expensive waveform models for binary black hole inspiral and merger. Surrogate modelling yields fast and accurate approximations of gravitational waves and neural networks have been used in the final step of interpolating the coefficients of the surrogate model for arbitrary waveforms outside the training sample. We investigate the existence of underlying structures in the empirical interpolation coefficients using autoencoders. We demonstrate that when the coefficient space is compressed to only two dimensions, a spiral structure appears, wherein the spiral angle is linearly related to the mass ratio. Based on this finding, we design a spiral module with learnable parameters, that is used as the first layer in a neural network, which learns to map the input space to the coefficients. The spiral module is evaluated on multiple neural network architectures and consistently achieves better speed-accuracy trade-off than baseline models. A thorough experimental study is conducted and the final result is a surrogate model which can evaluate millions of input parameters in a single forward pass in under 1ms on a desktop GPU, while the mismatch between the corresponding generated waveforms and the ground-truth waveforms is better than the compared baseline methods. We anticipate the existence of analogous underlying structures and corresponding computational gains also in the case of spinning black hole binaries.