Sim-to-Real Causal Transfer: A Metric Learning Approach to Causally-Aware Interaction Representations

Modeling spatial-temporal interactions among neighboring agents is at the heart of multi-agent problems such as motion forecasting and crowd navigation. Despite notable progress, it remains unclear to which extent modern representations can capture the causal relationships behind agent interactions. In this work, we take an in-depth look at the causal awareness of these representations, from computational formalism to real-world practice. First, we cast doubt on the notion of non-causal robustness studied in the recent CausalAgents benchmark. We show that recent representations are already partially resilient to perturbations of non-causal agents, and yet modeling indirect causal effects involving mediator agents remains challenging. To address this challenge, we introduce a metric learning approach that regularizes latent representations with causal annotations. Our controlled experiments show that this approach not only leads to higher degrees of causal awareness but also yields stronger out-of-distribution robustness. To further operationalize it in practice, we propose a sim-to-real causal transfer method via cross-domain multi-task learning. Experiments on pedestrian datasets show that our method can substantially boost generalization, even in the absence of real-world causal annotations. We hope our work provides a new perspective on the challenges and potential pathways towards causally-aware representations of multi-agent interactions. Our code is available at https://github.com/socialcausality.

Vehicle trajectory prediction works, but not everywhere

Vehicle trajectory prediction is nowadays a fundamental pillar of self-driving cars. Both the industry and research communities have acknowledged the need for such a pillar by running public benchmarks. While state-of-the-art methods are impressive, i.e., they have no off-road prediction, their generalization to cities outside of the benchmark is unknown. In this work, we show that those methods do not generalize to new scenes. We present a novel method that automatically generates realistic scenes that cause state-of-the-art models go off-road. We frame the problem through the lens of adversarial scene generation. We promote a simple yet effective generative model based on atomic scene generation functions along with physical constraints. Our experiments show that more than $60\%$ of the existing scenes from the current benchmarks can be modified in a way to make prediction methods fail (predicting off-road). We further show that (i) the generated scenes are realistic since they do exist in the real world, and (ii) can be used to make existing models robust by 30-40%. Code is available at https://s-attack.github.io/.