Do Large Language Models Truly Grasp Mathematics? An Empirical Exploration

Despite their proficiency in math tasks, the mechanisms underlying LLMs' mathematical reasoning abilities remain a subject of debate. Recent studies suggest that chain-of-thought (CoT) prompts can bolster mathematical reasoning by encouraging LLMs to employ human-like logical reasoning (System 2), enabling them to excel on the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). To assess whether LLMs genuinely possess System 2-like logical reasoning, we introduced targeted modifications to CRT problems. Our findings reveal that, despite the use of CoT prompts, mainstream LLMs, including the latest o1-preview model, continue to exhibit a significant error rate. Further analysis indicates that they predominantly rely on System 1-like intuitive reasoning and pattern matching derived from training data, rather than demonstrating mastery of mathematical thinking. This discovery challenges the prevailing notion that LLMs possess genuine logical reasoning abilities and that CoT can enhance them. Consequently, this work may temper overly optimistic projections regarding LLMs' advancement toward artificial general intelligence.

Echo State Networks for Spatio-Temporal Area-Level Data

Spatio-temporal area-level datasets play a critical role in official statistics, providing valuable insights for policy-making and regional planning. Accurate modeling and forecasting of these datasets can be extremely useful for policymakers to develop informed strategies for future planning. Echo State Networks (ESNs) are efficient methods for capturing nonlinear temporal dynamics and generating forecasts. However, ESNs lack a direct mechanism to account for the neighborhood structure inherent in area-level data. Ignoring these spatial relationships can significantly compromise the accuracy and utility of forecasts. In this paper, we incorporate approximate graph spectral filters at the input stage of the ESN, thereby improving forecast accuracy while preserving the model's computational efficiency during training. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using Eurostat's tourism occupancy dataset and show how it can support more informed decision-making in policy and planning contexts.

LLM-Generated Natural Language Meets Scaling Laws: New Explorations and Data Augmentation Methods

With the ascent of large language models (LLM), natural language processing has witnessed enhancements, such as LLM-based data augmentation. Nonetheless, prior research harbors two primary concerns: firstly, a lack of contemplation regarding whether the natural language generated by LLM (LLMNL) truly aligns with human natural language (HNL), a critical foundational question; secondly, an oversight that augmented data is randomly generated by LLM, implying that not all data may possess equal training value, that could impede the performance of classifiers. To address these challenges, we introduce the scaling laws to intrinsically calculate LLMNL and HNL. Through extensive experiments, we reveal slight deviations (approximately 0.2 Mandelbrot exponent) from Mandelbrot's law in LLMNL, underscore a complexity advantage in HNL, and supplement an interpretive discussion on language style. This establishes a solid foundation for LLM's expansion. Further, we introduce a novel data augmentation method for few-shot text classification, termed ZGPTDA, which leverages fuzzy computing mechanisms driven by the conformity to scaling laws to make decisions about GPT-4 augmented data. Extensive experiments, conducted in real-world scenarios, confirms the effectiveness (improving F1 of Bert and RoBerta by 7-10%) and competitiveness (surpassing recent AugGPT and GENCO methods by about 2% accuracy on DeBerta) of ZGPTDA. In addition, we reveal some interesting insights, e.g., Hilberg's law and Taylor's law can impart more benefits to text classification, etc.

Foot In The Door: Understanding Large Language Model Jailbreaking via Cognitive Psychology

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gradually become the gateway for people to acquire new knowledge. However, attackers can break the model's security protection ("jail") to access restricted information, which is called "jailbreaking." Previous studies have shown the weakness of current LLMs when confronted with such jailbreaking attacks. Nevertheless, comprehension of the intrinsic decision-making mechanism within the LLMs upon receipt of jailbreak prompts is noticeably lacking. Our research provides a psychological explanation of the jailbreak prompts. Drawing on cognitive consistency theory, we argue that the key to jailbreak is guiding the LLM to achieve cognitive coordination in an erroneous direction. Further, we propose an automatic black-box jailbreaking method based on the Foot-in-the-Door (FITD) technique. This method progressively induces the model to answer harmful questions via multi-step incremental prompts. We instantiated a prototype system to evaluate the jailbreaking effectiveness on 8 advanced LLMs, yielding an average success rate of 83.9%. This study builds a psychological perspective on the explanatory insights into the intrinsic decision-making logic of LLMs.

Exploring the Law of Numbers: Evidence from China's Real Estate

The renowned proverb, Numbers do not lie, underscores the reliability and insight that lie beneath numbers, a concept of undisputed importance, especially in economics and finance etc. Despite the prosperity of Benford's Law in the first digit analysis, its scope fails to remain comprehensiveness when it comes to deciphering the laws of number. This paper delves into number laws by taking the financial statements of China real estate as a representative, quantitatively study not only the first digit, but also depict the other two dimensions of numbers: frequency and length. The research outcomes transcend mere reservations about data manipulation and open the door to discussions surrounding number diversity and the delineation of the usage insights. This study wields both economic significance and the capacity to foster a deeper comprehension of numerical phenomena.

Exploring the law of text geographic information

Textual geographic information is indispensable and heavily relied upon in practical applications. The absence of clear distribution poses challenges in effectively harnessing geographic information, thereby driving our quest for exploration. We contend that geographic information is influenced by human behavior, cognition, expression, and thought processes, and given our intuitive understanding of natural systems, we hypothesize its conformity to the Gamma distribution. Through rigorous experiments on a diverse range of 24 datasets encompassing different languages and types, we have substantiated this hypothesis, unearthing the underlying regularities governing the dimensions of quantity, length, and distance in geographic information. Furthermore, theoretical analyses and comparisons with Gaussian distributions and Zipf's law have refuted the contingency of these laws. Significantly, we have estimated the upper bounds of human utilization of geographic information, pointing towards the existence of uncharted territories. Also, we provide guidance in geographic information extraction. Hope we peer its true countenance uncovering the veil of geographic information.

Will Sentiment Analysis Need Subculture? A New Data Augmentation Approach

The renowned proverb that "The pen is mightier than the sword" underscores the formidable influence wielded by text expressions in shaping sentiments. Indeed, well-crafted written can deeply resonate within cultures, conveying profound sentiments. Nowadays, the omnipresence of the Internet has fostered a subculture that congregates around the contemporary milieu. The subculture artfully articulates the intricacies of human feelings by ardently pursuing the allure of novelty, a fact that cannot be disregarded in the sentiment analysis. This paper strives to enrich data through the lens of subculture, to address the insufficient training data faced by sentiment analysis. To this end, a new approach of subculture-based data augmentation (SCDA) is proposed, which engenders six enhanced texts for each training text by leveraging the creation of six diverse subculture expression generators. The extensive experiments attest to the effectiveness and potential of SCDA. The results also shed light on the phenomenon that disparate subculture expressions elicit varying degrees of sentiment stimulation. Moreover, an intriguing conjecture arises, suggesting the linear reversibility of certain subculture expressions. It is our fervent aspiration that this study serves as a catalyst in fostering heightened perceptiveness towards the tapestry of information, sentiment and culture, thereby enriching our collective understanding.

Self-Deception: Reverse Penetrating the Semantic Firewall of Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, have emerged with astonishing capabilities approaching artificial general intelligence. While providing convenience for various societal needs, LLMs have also lowered the cost of generating harmful content. Consequently, LLM developers have deployed semantic-level defenses to recognize and reject prompts that may lead to inappropriate content. Unfortunately, these defenses are not foolproof, and some attackers have crafted "jailbreak" prompts that temporarily hypnotize the LLM into forgetting content defense rules and answering any improper questions. To date, there is no clear explanation of the principles behind these semantic-level attacks and defenses in both industry and academia. This paper investigates the LLM jailbreak problem and proposes an automatic jailbreak method for the first time. We propose the concept of a semantic firewall and provide three technical implementation approaches. Inspired by the attack that penetrates traditional firewalls through reverse tunnels, we introduce a "self-deception" attack that can bypass the semantic firewall by inducing LLM to generate prompts that facilitate jailbreak. We generated a total of 2,520 attack payloads in six languages (English, Russian, French, Spanish, Chinese, and Arabic) across seven virtual scenarios, targeting the three most common types of violations: violence, hate, and pornography. The experiment was conducted on two models, namely the GPT-3.5-Turbo and GPT-4. The success rates on the two models were 86.2% and 67%, while the failure rates were 4.7% and 2.2%, respectively. This highlighted the effectiveness of the proposed attack method. All experimental code and raw data will be released as open-source to inspire future research. We believe that manipulating AI behavior through carefully crafted prompts will become an important research direction in the future.

CTVIS: Consistent Training for Online Video Instance Segmentation

The discrimination of instance embeddings plays a vital role in associating instances across time for online video instance segmentation (VIS). Instance embedding learning is directly supervised by the contrastive loss computed upon the contrastive items (CIs), which are sets of anchor/positive/negative embeddings. Recent online VIS methods leverage CIs sourced from one reference frame only, which we argue is insufficient for learning highly discriminative embeddings. Intuitively, a possible strategy to enhance CIs is replicating the inference phase during training. To this end, we propose a simple yet effective training strategy, called Consistent Training for Online VIS (CTVIS), which devotes to aligning the training and inference pipelines in terms of building CIs. Specifically, CTVIS constructs CIs by referring inference the momentum-averaged embedding and the memory bank storage mechanisms, and adding noise to the relevant embeddings. Such an extension allows a reliable comparison between embeddings of current instances and the stable representations of historical instances, thereby conferring an advantage in modeling VIS challenges such as occlusion, re-identification, and deformation. Empirically, CTVIS outstrips the SOTA VIS models by up to +5.0 points on three VIS benchmarks, including YTVIS19 (55.1% AP), YTVIS21 (50.1% AP) and OVIS (35.5% AP). Furthermore, we find that pseudo-videos transformed from images can train robust models surpassing fully-supervised ones.

Human-to-Human Interaction Detection

A comprehensive understanding of interested human-to-human interactions in video streams, such as queuing, handshaking, fighting and chasing, is of immense importance to the surveillance of public security in regions like campuses, squares and parks. Different from conventional human interaction recognition, which uses choreographed videos as inputs, neglects concurrent interactive groups, and performs detection and recognition in separate stages, we introduce a new task named human-to-human interaction detection (HID). HID devotes to detecting subjects, recognizing person-wise actions, and grouping people according to their interactive relations, in one model. First, based on the popular AVA dataset created for action detection, we establish a new HID benchmark, termed AVA-Interaction (AVA-I), by adding annotations on interactive relations in a frame-by-frame manner. AVA-I consists of 85,254 frames and 86,338 interactive groups, and each image includes up to 4 concurrent interactive groups. Second, we present a novel baseline approach SaMFormer for HID, containing a visual feature extractor, a split stage which leverages a Transformer-based model to decode action instances and interactive groups, and a merging stage which reconstructs the relationship between instances and groups. All SaMFormer components are jointly trained in an end-to-end manner. Extensive experiments on AVA-I validate the superiority of SaMFormer over representative methods. The dataset and code will be made public to encourage more follow-up studies.