WeatherReal: A Benchmark Based on In-Situ Observations for Evaluating Weather Models

In recent years, AI-based weather forecasting models have matched or even outperformed numerical weather prediction systems. However, most of these models have been trained and evaluated on reanalysis datasets like ERA5. These datasets, being products of numerical models, often diverge substantially from actual observations in some crucial variables like near-surface temperature, wind, precipitation and clouds - parameters that hold significant public interest. To address this divergence, we introduce WeatherReal, a novel benchmark dataset for weather forecasting, derived from global near-surface in-situ observations. WeatherReal also features a publicly accessible quality control and evaluation framework. This paper details the sources and processing methodologies underlying the dataset, and further illustrates the advantage of in-situ observations in capturing hyper-local and extreme weather through comparative analyses and case studies. Using WeatherReal, we evaluated several data-driven models and compared them with leading numerical models. Our work aims to advance the AI-based weather forecasting research towards a more application-focused and operation-ready approach.

NeurDB: On the Design and Implementation of an AI-powered Autonomous Database

Databases are increasingly embracing AI to provide autonomous system optimization and intelligent in-database analytics, aiming to relieve end-user burdens across various industry sectors. Nonetheless, most existing approaches fail to account for the dynamic nature of databases, which renders them ineffective for real-world applications characterized by evolving data and workloads. This paper introduces NeurDB, an AI-powered autonomous database that deepens the fusion of AI and databases with adaptability to data and workload drift. NeurDB establishes a new in-database AI ecosystem that seamlessly integrates AI workflows within the database. This integration enables efficient and effective in-database AI analytics and fast-adaptive learned system components. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that NeurDB substantially outperforms existing solutions in managing AI analytics tasks, with the proposed learned components more effectively handling environmental dynamism than state-of-the-art approaches.

MS-nowcasting: Operational Precipitation Nowcasting with Convolutional LSTMs at Microsoft Weather

We present the encoder-forecaster convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) deep-learning model that powers Microsoft Weather's operational precipitation nowcasting product. This model takes as input a sequence of weather radar mosaics and deterministically predicts future radar reflectivity at lead times up to 6 hours. By stacking a large input receptive field along the feature dimension and conditioning the model's forecaster with predictions from the physics-based High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, we are able to outperform optical flow and HRRR baselines by 20-25% on multiple metrics averaged over all lead times.