Time-aware Heterogeneous Graph Transformer with Adaptive Attention Merging for Health Event Prediction

The widespread application of Electronic Health Records (EHR) data in the medical field has led to early successes in disease risk prediction using deep learning methods. These methods typically require extensive data for training due to their large parameter sets. However, existing works do not exploit the full potential of EHR data. A significant challenge arises from the infrequent occurrence of many medical codes within EHR data, limiting their clinical applicability. Current research often lacks in critical areas: 1) incorporating disease domain knowledge; 2) heterogeneously learning disease representations with rich meanings; 3) capturing the temporal dynamics of disease progression. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a novel heterogeneous graph learning model designed to assimilate disease domain knowledge and elucidate the intricate relationships between drugs and diseases. This model innovatively incorporates temporal data into visit-level embeddings and leverages a time-aware transformer alongside an adaptive attention mechanism to produce patient representations. When evaluated on two healthcare datasets, our approach demonstrated notable enhancements in both prediction accuracy and interpretability over existing methodologies, signifying a substantial advancement towards personalized and proactive healthcare management.

Diffusion-Generative Multi-Fidelity Learning for Physical Simulation

Multi-fidelity surrogate learning is important for physical simulation related applications in that it avoids running numerical solvers from scratch, which is known to be costly, and it uses multi-fidelity examples for training and greatly reduces the cost of data collection. Despite the variety of existing methods, they all build a model to map the input parameters outright to the solution output. Inspired by the recent breakthrough in generative models, we take an alternative view and consider the solution output as generated from random noises. We develop a diffusion-generative multi-fidelity (DGMF) learning method based on stochastic differential equations (SDE), where the generation is a continuous denoising process. We propose a conditional score model to control the solution generation by the input parameters and the fidelity. By conditioning on additional inputs (temporal or spacial variables), our model can efficiently learn and predict multi-dimensional solution arrays. Our method naturally unifies discrete and continuous fidelity modeling. The advantage of our method in several typical applications shows a promising new direction for multi-fidelity learning.

Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition for Continuous-indexed Tensor Data

Tucker decomposition is a powerful tensor model to handle multi-aspect data. It demonstrates the low-rank property by decomposing the grid-structured data as interactions between a core tensor and a set of object representations (factors). A fundamental assumption of such decomposition is that there were finite objects in each aspect or mode, corresponding to discrete indexes of data entries. However, many real-world data are not naturally posed in the setting. For example, geographic data is represented as continuous indexes of latitude and longitude coordinates, and cannot fit tensor models directly. To generalize Tucker decomposition to such scenarios, we propose Functional Bayesian Tucker Decomposition (FunBaT). We treat the continuous-indexed data as the interaction between the Tucker core and a group of latent functions. We use Gaussian processes (GP) as functional priors to model the latent functions, and then convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE) to reduce computational cost. An efficient inference algorithm is further developed for scalable posterior approximation based on advanced message-passing techniques. The advantage of our method is shown in both synthetic data and several real-world applications.

Solving High Frequency and Multi-Scale PDEs with Gaussian Processes

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We then apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (according to the Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. We are the first to discover its rationale and effectiveness for PDE solving. Next,we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to greatly promote computational efficiency and scalability, without any low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments.

Streaming Factor Trajectory Learning for Temporal Tensor Decomposition

Practical tensor data is often along with time information. Most existing temporal decomposition approaches estimate a set of fixed factors for the objects in each tensor mode, and hence cannot capture the temporal evolution of the objects' representation. More important, we lack an effective approach to capture such evolution from streaming data, which is common in real-world applications. To address these issues, we propose Streaming Factor Trajectory Learning for temporal tensor decomposition. We use Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the trajectory of factors so as to flexibly estimate their temporal evolution. To address the computational challenges in handling streaming data, we convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE). We develop an efficient online filtering algorithm to estimate a decoupled running posterior of the involved factor states upon receiving new data. The decoupled estimation enables us to conduct standard Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing to compute the full posterior of all the trajectories in parallel, without the need for revisiting any previous data. We have shown the advantage of SFTL in both synthetic tasks and real-world applications. The code is available at {https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Streaming-Factor-Trajectory-Learning}.

Dynamic Tensor Decomposition via Neural Diffusion-Reaction Processes

Tensor decomposition is an important tool for multiway data analysis. In practice, the data is often sparse yet associated with rich temporal information. Existing methods, however, often under-use the time information and ignore the structural knowledge within the sparsely observed tensor entries. To overcome these limitations and to better capture the underlying temporal structure, we propose Dynamic EMbedIngs fOr dynamic Tensor dEcomposition (DEMOTE). We develop a neural diffusion-reaction process to estimate dynamic embeddings for the entities in each tensor mode. Specifically, based on the observed tensor entries, we build a multi-partite graph to encode the correlation between the entities. We construct a graph diffusion process to co-evolve the embedding trajectories of the correlated entities and use a neural network to construct a reaction process for each individual entity. In this way, our model can capture both the commonalities and personalities during the evolution of the embeddings for different entities. We then use a neural network to model the entry value as a nonlinear function of the embedding trajectories. For model estimation, we combine ODE solvers to develop a stochastic mini-batch learning algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling method to balance the cost of processing each mini-batch so as to improve the overall efficiency. We show the advantage of our approach in both simulation study and real-world applications. The code is available at https://github.com/wzhut/Dynamic-Tensor-Decomposition-via-Neural-Diffusion-Reaction-Processes.

Multi-Resolution Active Learning of Fourier Neural Operators

Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) is a popular operator learning framework, which not only achieves the state-of-the-art performance in many tasks, but also is highly efficient in training and prediction. However, collecting training data for the FNO is a costly bottleneck in practice, because it often demands expensive physical simulations. To overcome this problem, we propose Multi-Resolution Active learning of FNO (MRA-FNO), which can dynamically select the input functions and resolutions to lower the data cost as much as possible while optimizing the learning efficiency. Specifically, we propose a probabilistic multi-resolution FNO and use ensemble Monte-Carlo to develop an effective posterior inference algorithm. To conduct active learning, we maximize a utility-cost ratio as the acquisition function to acquire new examples and resolutions at each step. We use moment matching and the matrix determinant lemma to enable tractable, efficient utility computation. Furthermore, we develop a cost annealing framework to avoid over-penalizing high-resolution queries at the early stage. The over-penalization is severe when the cost difference is significant between the resolutions, which renders active learning often stuck at low-resolution queries and inferior performance. Our method overcomes this problem and applies to general multi-fidelity active learning and optimization problems. We have shown the advantage of our method in several benchmark operator learning tasks.

Meta Learning of Interface Conditions for Multi-Domain Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are emerging as popular mesh-free solvers for partial differential equations (PDEs). Recent extensions decompose the domain, applying different PINNs to solve the equation in each subdomain and aligning the solution at the interface of the subdomains. Hence, they can further alleviate the problem complexity, reduce the computational cost, and allow parallelization. However, the performance of the multi-domain PINNs is sensitive to the choice of the interface conditions for solution alignment. While quite a few conditions have been proposed, there is no suggestion about how to select the conditions according to specific problems. To address this gap, we propose META Learning of Interface Conditions (METALIC), a simple, efficient yet powerful approach to dynamically determine the optimal interface conditions for solving a family of parametric PDEs. Specifically, we develop two contextual multi-arm bandit models. The first one applies to the entire training procedure, and online updates a Gaussian process (GP) reward surrogate that given the PDE parameters and interface conditions predicts the solution error. The second one partitions the training into two stages, one is the stochastic phase and the other deterministic phase; we update a GP surrogate for each phase to enable different condition selections at the two stages so as to further bolster the flexibility and performance. We have shown the advantage of METALIC on four bench-mark PDE families.

Batch Multi-Fidelity Active Learning with Budget Constraints

Learning functions with high-dimensional outputs is critical in many applications, such as physical simulation and engineering design. However, collecting training examples for these applications is often costly, e.g. by running numerical solvers. The recent work (Li et al., 2022) proposes the first multi-fidelity active learning approach for high-dimensional outputs, which can acquire examples at different fidelities to reduce the cost while improving the learning performance. However, this method only queries at one pair of fidelity and input at a time, and hence has a risk to bring in strongly correlated examples to reduce the learning efficiency. In this paper, we propose Batch Multi-Fidelity Active Learning with Budget Constraints (BMFAL-BC), which can promote the diversity of training examples to improve the benefit-cost ratio, while respecting a given budget constraint for batch queries. Hence, our method can be more practically useful. Specifically, we propose a novel batch acquisition function that measures the mutual information between a batch of multi-fidelity queries and the target function, so as to penalize highly correlated queries and encourages diversity. The optimization of the batch acquisition function is challenging in that it involves a combinatorial search over many fidelities while subject to the budget constraint. To address this challenge, we develop a weighted greedy algorithm that can sequentially identify each (fidelity, input) pair, while achieving a near $(1 - 1/e)$-approximation of the optimum. We show the advantage of our method in several computational physics and engineering applications.

An Interpretable and Efficient Infinite-Order Vector Autoregressive Model for High-Dimensional Time Series

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long been hindered by its non-identifiability, computational intractability, and relative difficulty of interpretation. This paper introduces a novel infinite-order VAR model which, with only a little sacrifice of generality, inherits the essential temporal patterns of the VARMA model but avoids all of the above drawbacks. As another attractive feature, the temporal and cross-sectional dependence structures of this model can be interpreted separately, since they are characterized by different sets of parameters. For high-dimensional time series, this separation motivates us to impose sparsity on the parameters determining the cross-sectional dependence. As a result, greater statistical efficiency and interpretability can be achieved, while no loss of temporal information is incurred by the imposed sparsity. We introduce an $\ell_1$-regularized estimator for the proposed model and derive the corresponding nonasymptotic error bounds. An efficient block coordinate descent algorithm and a consistent model order selection method are developed. The merit of the proposed approach is supported by simulation studies and a real-world macroeconomic data analysis.