Multi-modal graph neural networks for localized off-grid weather forecasting

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, weather forecast products from machine learning or numerical weather models are currently generated on a global regular grid, on which a naive interpolation cannot accurately reflect fine-grained weather patterns close to the ground. In this work, we train a heterogeneous graph neural network (GNN) end-to-end to downscale gridded forecasts to off-grid locations of interest. This multi-modal GNN takes advantage of local historical weather observations (e.g., wind, temperature) to correct the gridded weather forecast at different lead times towards locally accurate forecasts. Each data modality is modeled as a different type of node in the graph. Using message passing, the node at the prediction location aggregates information from its heterogeneous neighbor nodes. Experiments using weather stations across the Northeastern United States show that our model outperforms a range of data-driven and non-data-driven off-grid forecasting methods. Our approach demonstrates how the gap between global large-scale weather models and locally accurate predictions can be bridged to inform localized decision-making.

Quantifying uncertainty in area and regression coefficient estimation from remote sensing maps

Remote sensing map products are used to obtain estimates of environmental quantities, such as deforested area or the effect of conservation zones on deforestation. However, the quality of map products varies, and - because maps are outputs of complex machine learning algorithms that take in a variety of remotely sensed variables as inputs - errors are difficult to characterize. Without capturing the biases that may be present, naive calculations of population-level estimates from such maps are statistically invalid. In this paper, we compare several uncertainty quantification methods - stratification, Olofsson area estimation method, and prediction-powered inference - that combine a small amount of randomly sampled ground truth data with large-scale remote sensing map products to generate statistically valid estimates. Applying these methods across four remote sensing use cases in area and regression coefficient estimation, we find that they result in estimates that are more reliable than naively using the map product as if it were 100% accurate and have lower uncertainty than using only the ground truth and ignoring the map product. Prediction-powered inference uses ground truth data to correct for bias in the map product estimate and (unlike stratification) does not require us to choose a map product before sampling. This is the first work to (1) apply prediction-powered inference to remote sensing estimation tasks, and (2) perform uncertainty quantification on remote sensing regression coefficients without assumptions on the structure of map product errors. To improve the utility of machine learning-generated remote sensing maps for downstream applications, we recommend that map producers provide a holdout ground truth dataset to be used for calibration in uncertainty quantification alongside their maps.

Good at captioning, bad at counting: Benchmarking GPT-4V on Earth observation data

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on complex tasks involving visual input with natural language instructions. However, it remains unclear to what extent capabilities on natural images transfer to Earth observation (EO) data, which are predominantly satellite and aerial images less common in VLM training data. In this work, we propose a comprehensive benchmark to gauge the progress of VLMs toward being useful tools for EO data by assessing their abilities on scene understanding, localization and counting, and change detection tasks. Motivated by real-world applications, our benchmark includes scenarios like urban monitoring, disaster relief, land use, and conservation. We discover that, although state-of-the-art VLMs like GPT-4V possess extensive world knowledge that leads to strong performance on open-ended tasks like location understanding and image captioning, their poor spatial reasoning limits usefulness on object localization and counting tasks. Our benchmark will be made publicly available at https://vleo.danielz.ch/ and on Hugging Face at https://huggingface.co/collections/mit-ei/vleo-benchmark-datasets-65b789b0466555489cce0d70 for easy model evaluation.

Taking it further: leveraging pseudo labels for field delineation across label-scarce smallholder regions

Transfer learning allows for resource-efficient geographic transfer of pre-trained field delineation models. However, the scarcity of labeled data for complex and dynamic smallholder landscapes, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, remains a major bottleneck for large-area field delineation. This study explores opportunities of using sparse field delineation pseudo labels for fine-tuning models across geographies and sensor characteristics. We build on a FracTAL ResUNet trained for crop field delineation in India (median field size of 0.24 ha) and use this pre-trained model to generate pseudo labels in Mozambique (median field size of 0.06 ha). We designed multiple pseudo label selection strategies and compared the quantities, area properties, seasonal distribution, and spatial agreement of the pseudo labels against human-annotated training labels (n = 1,512). We then used the human-annotated labels and the pseudo labels for model fine-tuning and compared predictions against human field annotations (n = 2,199). Our results indicate i) a good baseline performance of the pre-trained model in both field delineation and field size estimation, and ii) the added value of regional fine-tuning with performance improvements in nearly all experiments. Moreover, we found iii) substantial performance increases when using only pseudo labels (up to 77% of the IoU increases and 68% of the RMSE decreases obtained by human labels), and iv) additional performance increases when complementing human annotations with pseudo labels. Pseudo labels can be efficiently generated at scale and thus facilitate domain adaptation in label-scarce settings. The workflow presented here is a stepping stone for overcoming the persisting data gaps in heterogeneous smallholder agriculture of Sub-Saharan Africa, where labels are commonly scarce.

Combining deep learning and street view imagery to map smallholder crop types

Accurate crop type maps are an essential source of information for monitoring yield progress at scale, projecting global crop production, and planning effective policies. To date, however, crop type maps remain challenging to create in low and middle-income countries due to a lack of ground truth labels for training machine learning models. Field surveys are the gold standard in terms of accuracy but require an often-prohibitively large amount of time, money, and statistical capacity. In recent years, street-level imagery, such as Google Street View, KartaView, and Mapillary, has become available around the world. Such imagery contains rich information about crop types grown at particular locations and times. In this work, we develop an automated system to generate crop type ground references using deep learning and Google Street View imagery. The method efficiently curates a set of street view images containing crop fields, trains a model to predict crop type by utilizing weakly-labelled images from disparate out-of-domain sources, and combines predicted labels with remote sensing time series to create a wall-to-wall crop type map. We show that, in Thailand, the resulting country-wide map of rice, cassava, maize, and sugarcane achieves an accuracy of 93%. As the availability of roadside imagery expands, our pipeline provides a way to map crop types at scale around the globe, especially in underserved smallholder regions.

Annual field-scale maps of tall and short crops at the global scale using GEDI and Sentinel-2

Crop type maps are critical for tracking agricultural land use and estimating crop production. Remote sensing has proven an efficient and reliable tool for creating these maps in regions with abundant ground labels for model training, yet these labels remain difficult to obtain in many regions and years. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) spaceborne lidar instrument, originally designed for forest monitoring, has shown promise for distinguishing tall and short crops. In the current study, we leverage GEDI to develop wall-to-wall maps of short vs tall crops on a global scale at 10 m resolution for 2019-2021. Specifically, we show that (1) GEDI returns can reliably be classified into tall and short crops after removing shots with extreme view angles or topographic slope, (2) the frequency of tall crops over time can be used to identify months when tall crops are at their peak height, and (3) GEDI shots in these months can then be used to train random forest models that use Sentinel-2 time series to accurately predict short vs. tall crops. Independent reference data from around the world are then used to evaluate these GEDI-S2 maps. We find that GEDI-S2 performed nearly as well as models trained on thousands of local reference training points, with accuracies of at least 87% and often above 90% throughout the Americas, Europe, and East Asia. Systematic underestimation of tall crop area was observed in regions where crops frequently exhibit low biomass, namely Africa and South Asia, and further work is needed in these systems. Although the GEDI-S2 approach only differentiates tall from short crops, in many landscapes this distinction goes a long way toward mapping the main individual crop types. The combination of GEDI and Sentinel-2 thus presents a very promising path towards global crop mapping with minimal reliance on ground data.

Unlocking large-scale crop field delineation in smallholder farming systems with transfer learning and weak supervision

Crop field boundaries aid in mapping crop types, predicting yields, and delivering field-scale analytics to farmers. Recent years have seen the successful application of deep learning to delineating field boundaries in industrial agricultural systems, but field boundary datasets remain missing in smallholder systems due to (1) small fields that require high resolution satellite imagery to delineate and (2) a lack of ground labels for model training and validation. In this work, we combine transfer learning and weak supervision to overcome these challenges, and we demonstrate the methods' success in India where we efficiently generated 10,000 new field labels. Our best model uses 1.5m resolution Airbus SPOT imagery as input, pre-trains a state-of-the-art neural network on France field boundaries, and fine-tunes on India labels to achieve a median Intersection over Union (IoU) of 0.86 in India. If using 4.8m resolution PlanetScope imagery instead, the best model achieves a median IoU of 0.72. Experiments also show that pre-training in France reduces the number of India field labels needed to achieve a given performance level by as much as $20\times$ when datasets are small. These findings suggest our method is a scalable approach for delineating crop fields in regions of the world that currently lack field boundary datasets. We publicly release the 10,000 labels and delineation model to facilitate the creation of field boundary maps and new methods by the community.

SustainBench: Benchmarks for Monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals with Machine Learning

Progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has been hindered by a lack of data on key environmental and socioeconomic indicators, which historically have come from ground surveys with sparse temporal and spatial coverage. Recent advances in machine learning have made it possible to utilize abundant, frequently-updated, and globally available data, such as from satellites or social media, to provide insights into progress toward SDGs. Despite promising early results, approaches to using such data for SDG measurement thus far have largely evaluated on different datasets or used inconsistent evaluation metrics, making it hard to understand whether performance is improving and where additional research would be most fruitful. Furthermore, processing satellite and ground survey data requires domain knowledge that many in the machine learning community lack. In this paper, we introduce SustainBench, a collection of 15 benchmark tasks across 7 SDGs, including tasks related to economic development, agriculture, health, education, water and sanitation, climate action, and life on land. Datasets for 11 of the 15 tasks are released publicly for the first time. Our goals for SustainBench are to (1) lower the barriers to entry for the machine learning community to contribute to measuring and achieving the SDGs; (2) provide standard benchmarks for evaluating machine learning models on tasks across a variety of SDGs; and (3) encourage the development of novel machine learning methods where improved model performance facilitates progress towards the SDGs.

Combining GEDI and Sentinel-2 for wall-to-wall mapping of tall and short crops

High resolution crop type maps are an important tool for improving food security, and remote sensing is increasingly used to create such maps in regions that possess ground truth labels for model training. However, these labels are absent in many regions, and models trained in other regions on typical satellite features, such as those from optical sensors, often exhibit low performance when transferred. Here we explore the use of NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) spaceborne lidar instrument, combined with Sentinel-2 optical data, for crop type mapping. Using data from three major cropped regions (in China, France, and the United States) we first demonstrate that GEDI energy profiles are capable of reliably distinguishing maize, a crop typically above 2m in height, from crops like rice and soybean that are shorter. We further show that these GEDI profiles provide much more invariant features across geographies compared to spectral and phenological features detected by passive optical sensors. GEDI is able to distinguish maize from other crops within each region with accuracies higher than 84%, and able to transfer across regions with accuracies higher than 82% compared to 64% for transfer of optical features. Finally, we show that GEDI profiles can be used to generate training labels for models based on optical imagery from Sentinel-2, thereby enabling the creation of 10m wall-to-wall maps of tall versus short crops in label-scarce regions. As maize is the second most widely grown crop in the world and often the only tall crop grown within a landscape, we conclude that GEDI offers great promise for improving global crop type maps.

Two Shifts for Crop Mapping: Leveraging Aggregate Crop Statistics to Improve Satellite-based Maps in New Regions

Crop type mapping at the field level is critical for a variety of applications in agricultural monitoring, and satellite imagery is becoming an increasingly abundant and useful raw input from which to create crop type maps. Still, in many regions crop type mapping with satellite data remains constrained by a scarcity of field-level crop labels for training supervised classification models. When training data is not available in one region, classifiers trained in similar regions can be transferred, but shifts in the distribution of crop types as well as transformations of the features between regions lead to reduced classification accuracy. We present a methodology that uses aggregate-level crop statistics to correct the classifier by accounting for these two types of shifts. To adjust for shifts in the crop type composition we present a scheme for properly reweighting the posterior probabilities of each class that are output by the classifier. To adjust for shifts in features we propose a method to estimate and remove linear shifts in the mean feature vector. We demonstrate that this methodology leads to substantial improvements in overall classification accuracy when using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to map crop types in Occitanie, France and in Western Province, Kenya. When using LDA as our base classifier, we found that in France our methodology led to percent reductions in misclassifications ranging from 2.8% to 42.2% (mean = 21.9%) over eleven different training departments, and in Kenya the percent reductions in misclassification were 6.6%, 28.4%, and 42.7% for three training regions. While our methodology was statistically motivated by the LDA classifier, it can be applied to any type of classifier. As an example, we demonstrate its successful application to improve a Random Forest classifier.