Multi-modal graph neural networks for localized off-grid weather forecasting

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, weather forecast products from machine learning or numerical weather models are currently generated on a global regular grid, on which a naive interpolation cannot accurately reflect fine-grained weather patterns close to the ground. In this work, we train a heterogeneous graph neural network (GNN) end-to-end to downscale gridded forecasts to off-grid locations of interest. This multi-modal GNN takes advantage of local historical weather observations (e.g., wind, temperature) to correct the gridded weather forecast at different lead times towards locally accurate forecasts. Each data modality is modeled as a different type of node in the graph. Using message passing, the node at the prediction location aggregates information from its heterogeneous neighbor nodes. Experiments using weather stations across the Northeastern United States show that our model outperforms a range of data-driven and non-data-driven off-grid forecasting methods. Our approach demonstrates how the gap between global large-scale weather models and locally accurate predictions can be bridged to inform localized decision-making.

Deep Neural Network Learning with Second-Order Optimizers -- a Practical Study with a Stochastic Quasi-Gauss-Newton Method

Training in supervised deep learning is computationally demanding, and the convergence behavior is usually not fully understood. We introduce and study a second-order stochastic quasi-Gauss--Newton (SQGN) optimization method that combines ideas from stochastic quasi-Newton methods, Gauss--Newton methods, and variance reduction to address this problem. SQGN provides excellent accuracy without the need for experimenting with many hyper-parameter configurations, which is often computationally prohibitive given the number of combinations and the cost of each training process. We discuss the implementation of SQGN with TensorFlow, and we compare its convergence and computational performance to selected first-order methods using the MNIST benchmark and a large-scale seismic tomography application from Earth science.