Closed-Loop Neural Operator-Based Observer of Traffic Density

We consider the problem of traffic density estimation with sparse measurements from stationary roadside sensors. Our approach uses Fourier neural operators to learn macroscopic traffic flow dynamics from high-fidelity microscopic-level simulations. During inference, the operator functions as an open-loop predictor of traffic evolution. To close the loop, we couple the open-loop operator with a correction operator that combines the predicted density with sparse measurements from the sensors. Simulations with the SUMO software indicate that, compared to open-loop observers, the proposed closed-loop observer exhibit classical closed-loop properties such as robustness to noise and ultimate boundedness of the error. This shows the advantages of combining learned physics with real-time corrections, and opens avenues for accurate, efficient, and interpretable data-driven observers.

Online Traffic Density Estimation using Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Recent works on the application of Physics-Informed Neural Networks to traffic density estimation have shown to be promising for future developments due to their robustness to model errors and noisy data. In this paper, we introduce a methodology for online approximation of the traffic density using measurements from probe vehicles in two settings: one using the Greenshield model and the other considering a high-fidelity traffic simulation. The proposed method continuously estimates the real-time traffic density in space and performs model identification with each new set of measurements. The density estimate is updated in almost real-time using gradient descent and adaptive weights. In the case of full model knowledge, the resulting algorithm has similar performance to the classical open-loop one. However, in the case of model mismatch, the iterative solution behaves as a closed-loop observer and outperforms the baseline method. Similarly, in the high-fidelity setting, the proposed algorithm correctly reproduces the traffic characteristics.

KKL Observer Synthesis for Nonlinear Systems via Physics-Informed Learning

This paper proposes a novel learning approach for designing Kazantzis-Kravaris/Luenberger (KKL) observers for autonomous nonlinear systems. The design of a KKL observer involves finding an injective map that transforms the system state into a higher-dimensional observer state, whose dynamics is linear and stable. The observer's state is then mapped back to the original system coordinates via the inverse map to obtain the state estimate. However, finding this transformation and its inverse is quite challenging. We propose to sequentially approximate these maps by neural networks that are trained using physics-informed learning. We generate synthetic data for training by numerically solving the system and observer dynamics. Theoretical guarantees for the robustness of state estimation against approximation error and system uncertainties are provided. Additionally, a systematic method for optimizing observer performance through parameter selection is presented. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through numerical simulations on benchmark examples and its application to sensor fault detection and isolation in a network of Kuramoto oscillators using learned KKL observers.

Explainable Reinforcement Learning via Temporal Policy Decomposition

We investigate the explainability of Reinforcement Learning (RL) policies from a temporal perspective, focusing on the sequence of future outcomes associated with individual actions. In RL, value functions compress information about rewards collected across multiple trajectories and over an infinite horizon, allowing a compact form of knowledge representation. However, this compression obscures the temporal details inherent in sequential decision-making, presenting a key challenge for interpretability. We present Temporal Policy Decomposition (TPD), a novel explainability approach that explains individual RL actions in terms of their Expected Future Outcome (EFO). These explanations decompose generalized value functions into a sequence of EFOs, one for each time step up to a prediction horizon of interest, revealing insights into when specific outcomes are expected to occur. We leverage fixed-horizon temporal difference learning to devise an off-policy method for learning EFOs for both optimal and suboptimal actions, enabling contrastive explanations consisting of EFOs for different state-action pairs. Our experiments demonstrate that TPD generates accurate explanations that (i) clarify the policy's future strategy and anticipated trajectory for a given action and (ii) improve understanding of the reward composition, facilitating fine-tuning of the reward function to align with human expectations.

Risk-averse learning with delayed feedback

In real-world scenarios, the impacts of decisions may not manifest immediately. Taking these delays into account facilitates accurate assessment and management of risk in real-world environments, thereby ensuring the efficacy of strategies. In this paper, we investigate risk-averse learning using Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as risk measure, while incorporating delayed feedback with unknown but bounded delays. We develop two risk-averse learning algorithms that rely on one-point and two-point zeroth-order optimization approaches, respectively. The regret achieved by the algorithms is analyzed in terms of the cumulative delay and the number of total samplings. The results suggest that the two-point risk-averse learning achieves a smaller regret bound than the one-point algorithm. Furthermore, the one-point risk-averse learning algorithm attains sublinear regret under certain delay conditions, and the two-point risk-averse learning algorithm achieves sublinear regret with minimal restrictions on the delay. We provide numerical experiments on a dynamic pricing problem to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithms.

Federated Cubic Regularized Newton Learning with Sparsification-amplified Differential Privacy

This paper investigates the use of the cubic-regularized Newton method within a federated learning framework while addressing two major concerns that commonly arise in federated learning: privacy leakage and communication bottleneck. We introduce a federated learning algorithm called Differentially Private Federated Cubic Regularized Newton (DP-FCRN). By leveraging second-order techniques, our algorithm achieves lower iteration complexity compared to first-order methods. We also incorporate noise perturbation during local computations to ensure privacy. Furthermore, we employ sparsification in uplink transmission, which not only reduces the communication costs but also amplifies the privacy guarantee. Specifically, this approach reduces the necessary noise intensity without compromising privacy protection. We analyze the convergence properties of our algorithm and establish the privacy guarantee. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through experiments on a benchmark dataset.

Real-time Hybrid System Identification with Online Deterministic Annealing

We introduce a real-time identification method for discrete-time state-dependent switching systems in both the input--output and state-space domains. In particular, we design a system of adaptive algorithms running in two timescales; a stochastic approximation algorithm implements an online deterministic annealing scheme at a slow timescale and estimates the mode-switching signal, and an recursive identification algorithm runs at a faster timescale and updates the parameters of the local models based on the estimate of the switching signal. We first focus on piece-wise affine systems and discuss identifiability conditions and convergence properties based on the theory of two-timescale stochastic approximation. In contrast to standard identification algorithms for switched systems, the proposed approach gradually estimates the number of modes and is appropriate for real-time system identification using sequential data acquisition. The progressive nature of the algorithm improves computational efficiency and provides real-time control over the performance-complexity trade-off. Finally, we address specific challenges that arise in the application of the proposed methodology in identification of more general switching systems. Simulation results validate the efficacy of the proposed methodology.

Exploring the Effectiveness of Object-Centric Representations in Visual Question Answering: Comparative Insights with Foundation Models

Object-centric (OC) representations, which represent the state of a visual scene by modeling it as a composition of objects, have the potential to be used in various downstream tasks to achieve systematic compositional generalization and facilitate reasoning. However, these claims have not been thoroughly analyzed yet. Recently, foundation models have demonstrated unparalleled capabilities across diverse domains from language to computer vision, marking them as a potential cornerstone of future research for a multitude of computational tasks. In this paper, we conduct an extensive empirical study on representation learning for downstream Visual Question Answering (VQA), which requires an accurate compositional understanding of the scene. We thoroughly investigate the benefits and trade-offs of OC models and alternative approaches including large pre-trained foundation models on both synthetic and real-world data, and demonstrate a viable way to achieve the best of both worlds. The extensiveness of our study, encompassing over 800 downstream VQA models and 15 different types of upstream representations, also provides several additional insights that we believe will be of interest to the community at large.

Challenges and Considerations in the Evaluation of Bayesian Causal Discovery

Representing uncertainty in causal discovery is a crucial component for experimental design, and more broadly, for safe and reliable causal decision making. Bayesian Causal Discovery (BCD) offers a principled approach to encapsulating this uncertainty. Unlike non-Bayesian causal discovery, which relies on a single estimated causal graph and model parameters for assessment, evaluating BCD presents challenges due to the nature of its inferred quantity - the posterior distribution. As a result, the research community has proposed various metrics to assess the quality of the approximate posterior. However, there is, to date, no consensus on the most suitable metric(s) for evaluation. In this work, we reexamine this question by dissecting various metrics and understanding their limitations. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we find that many existing metrics fail to exhibit a strong correlation with the quality of approximation to the true posterior, especially in scenarios with low sample sizes where BCD is most desirable. We highlight the suitability (or lack thereof) of these metrics under two distinct factors: the identifiability of the underlying causal model and the quantity of available data. Both factors affect the entropy of the true posterior, indicating that the current metrics are less fitting in settings of higher entropy. Our findings underline the importance of a more nuanced evaluation of new methods by taking into account the nature of the true posterior, as well as guide and motivate the development of new evaluation procedures for this challenge.

Diffusion Based Causal Representation Learning

Causal reasoning can be considered a cornerstone of intelligent systems. Having access to an underlying causal graph comes with the promise of cause-effect estimation and the identification of efficient and safe interventions. However, learning causal representations remains a major challenge, due to the complexity of many real-world systems. Previous works on causal representation learning have mostly focused on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE). These methods only provide representations from a point estimate, and they are unsuitable to handle high dimensions. To overcome these problems, we proposed a new Diffusion-based Causal Representation Learning (DCRL) algorithm. This algorithm uses diffusion-based representations for causal discovery. DCRL offers access to infinite dimensional latent codes, which encode different levels of information in the latent code. In a first proof of principle, we investigate the use of DCRL for causal representation learning. We further demonstrate experimentally that this approach performs comparably well in identifying the causal structure and causal variables.