Amazing Things Come From Having Many Good Models

The Rashomon Effect, coined by Leo Breiman, describes the phenomenon that there exist many equally good predictive models for the same dataset. This phenomenon happens for many real datasets and when it does, it sparks both magic and consternation, but mostly magic. In light of the Rashomon Effect, this perspective piece proposes reshaping the way we think about machine learning, particularly for tabular data problems in the nondeterministic (noisy) setting. We address how the Rashomon Effect impacts (1) the existence of simple-yet-accurate models, (2) flexibility to address user preferences, such as fairness and monotonicity, without losing performance, (3) uncertainty in predictions, fairness, and explanations, (4) reliable variable importance, (5) algorithm choice, specifically, providing advanced knowledge of which algorithms might be suitable for a given problem, and (6) public policy. We also discuss a theory of when the Rashomon Effect occurs and why. Our goal is to illustrate how the Rashomon Effect can have a massive impact on the use of machine learning for complex problems in society.

This Looks Better than That: Better Interpretable Models with ProtoPNeXt

Prototypical-part models are a popular interpretable alternative to black-box deep learning models for computer vision. However, they are difficult to train, with high sensitivity to hyperparameter tuning, inhibiting their application to new datasets and our understanding of which methods truly improve their performance. To facilitate the careful study of prototypical-part networks (ProtoPNets), we create a new framework for integrating components of prototypical-part models -- ProtoPNeXt. Using ProtoPNeXt, we show that applying Bayesian hyperparameter tuning and an angular prototype similarity metric to the original ProtoPNet is sufficient to produce new state-of-the-art accuracy for prototypical-part models on CUB-200 across multiple backbones. We further deploy this framework to jointly optimize for accuracy and prototype interpretability as measured by metrics included in ProtoPNeXt. Using the same resources, this produces models with substantially superior semantics and changes in accuracy between +1.3% and -1.5%. The code and trained models will be made publicly available upon publication.

FPN-IAIA-BL: A Multi-Scale Interpretable Deep Learning Model for Classification of Mass Margins in Digital Mammography

Digital mammography is essential to breast cancer detection, and deep learning offers promising tools for faster and more accurate mammogram analysis. In radiology and other high-stakes environments, uninterpretable ("black box") deep learning models are unsuitable and there is a call in these fields to make interpretable models. Recent work in interpretable computer vision provides transparency to these formerly black boxes by utilizing prototypes for case-based explanations, achieving high accuracy in applications including mammography. However, these models struggle with precise feature localization, reasoning on large portions of an image when only a small part is relevant. This paper addresses this gap by proposing a novel multi-scale interpretable deep learning model for mammographic mass margin classification. Our contribution not only offers an interpretable model with reasoning aligned with radiologist practices, but also provides a general architecture for computer vision with user-configurable prototypes from coarse- to fine-grained prototypes.

The Rashomon Importance Distribution: Getting RID of Unstable, Single Model-based Variable Importance

Quantifying variable importance is essential for answering high-stakes questions in fields like genetics, public policy, and medicine. Current methods generally calculate variable importance for a given model trained on a given dataset. However, for a given dataset, there may be many models that explain the target outcome equally well; without accounting for all possible explanations, different researchers may arrive at many conflicting yet equally valid conclusions given the same data. Additionally, even when accounting for all possible explanations for a given dataset, these insights may not generalize because not all good explanations are stable across reasonable data perturbations. We propose a new variable importance framework that quantifies the importance of a variable across the set of all good models and is stable across the data distribution. Our framework is extremely flexible and can be integrated with most existing model classes and global variable importance metrics. We demonstrate through experiments that our framework recovers variable importance rankings for complex simulation setups where other methods fail. Further, we show that our framework accurately estimates the true importance of a variable for the underlying data distribution. We provide theoretical guarantees on the consistency and finite sample error rates for our estimator. Finally, we demonstrate its utility with a real-world case study exploring which genes are important for predicting HIV load in persons with HIV, highlighting an important gene that has not previously been studied in connection with HIV. Code is available here.

Deformable ProtoPNet: An Interpretable Image Classifier Using Deformable Prototypes

Machine learning has been widely adopted in many domains, including high-stakes applications such as healthcare, finance, and criminal justice. To address concerns of fairness, accountability and transparency, predictions made by machine learning models in these critical domains must be interpretable. One line of work approaches this challenge by integrating the power of deep neural networks and the interpretability of case-based reasoning to produce accurate yet interpretable image classification models. These models generally classify input images by comparing them with prototypes learned during training, yielding explanations in the form of "this looks like that." However, methods from this line of work use spatially rigid prototypes, which cannot explicitly account for pose variations. In this paper, we address this shortcoming by proposing a case-based interpretable neural network that provides spatially flexible prototypes, called a deformable prototypical part network (Deformable ProtoPNet). In a Deformable ProtoPNet, each prototype is made up of several prototypical parts that adaptively change their relative spatial positions depending on the input image. This enables each prototype to detect object features with a higher tolerance to spatial transformations, as the parts within a prototype are allowed to move. Consequently, a Deformable ProtoPNet can explicitly capture pose variations, improving both model accuracy and the richness of explanations provided. Compared to other case-based interpretable models using prototypes, our approach achieves competitive accuracy, gives an explanation with greater context, and is easier to train, thus enabling wider use of interpretable models for computer vision.