Predicting Large Language Model Capabilities on Closed-Book QA Tasks Using Only Information Available Prior to Training

The GPT-4 technical report from OpenAI suggests that model performance on specific tasks can be predicted prior to training, though methodologies remain unspecified. This approach is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and ensuring data alignment with target tasks. To achieve this vision, we focus on predicting performance on Closed-book Question Answering (CBQA) tasks, which are closely tied to pre-training data and knowledge retention. We address three major challenges: 1) mastering the entire pre-training process, especially data construction; 2) evaluating a model's knowledge retention; and 3) predicting task-specific knowledge retention using only information available prior to training. To tackle these challenges, we pre-train three large language models (i.e., 1.6B, 7B, and 13B) using 560k dollars and 520k GPU hours. We analyze the pre-training data with knowledge triples and assess knowledge retention using established methods. Additionally, we introduce the SMI metric, an information-theoretic measure that quantifies the relationship between pre-training data, model size, and task-specific knowledge retention. Our experiments reveal a strong linear correlation ($\text{R}^2 > 0.84$) between the SMI metric and the model's accuracy on CBQA tasks across models of varying sizes (i.e., 1.1B, 1.6B, 7B, and 13B). The dataset, model, and code are available at https://github.com/yuhui1038/SMI.

LLaMA-MoE: Building Mixture-of-Experts from LLaMA with Continual Pre-training

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) has gained increasing popularity as a promising framework for scaling up large language models (LLMs). However, training MoE from scratch in a large-scale setting still suffers from data-hungry and instability problems. Motivated by this limit, we investigate building MoE models from existing dense large language models. Specifically, based on the well-known LLaMA-2 7B model, we obtain an MoE model by: (1) Expert Construction, which partitions the parameters of original Feed-Forward Networks (FFNs) into multiple experts; (2) Continual Pre-training, which further trains the transformed MoE model and additional gate networks. In this paper, we comprehensively explore different methods for expert construction and various data sampling strategies for continual pre-training. After these stages, our LLaMA-MoE models could maintain language abilities and route the input tokens to specific experts with part of the parameters activated. Empirically, by training 200B tokens, LLaMA-MoE-3.5B models significantly outperform dense models that contain similar activation parameters. The source codes and models are available at https://github.com/pjlab-sys4nlp/llama-moe .

Exploring the Compositional Deficiency of Large Language Models in Mathematical Reasoning

Human cognition exhibits systematic compositionality, the algebraic ability to generate infinite novel combinations from finite learned components, which is the key to understanding and reasoning about complex logic. In this work, we investigate the compositionality of large language models (LLMs) in mathematical reasoning. Specifically, we construct a new dataset \textsc{MathTrap}\footnotemark[3] by introducing carefully designed logical traps into the problem descriptions of MATH and GSM8k. Since problems with logical flaws are quite rare in the real world, these represent ``unseen'' cases to LLMs. Solving these requires the models to systematically compose (1) the mathematical knowledge involved in the original problems with (2) knowledge related to the introduced traps. Our experiments show that while LLMs possess both components of requisite knowledge, they do not \textbf{spontaneously} combine them to handle these novel cases. We explore several methods to mitigate this deficiency, such as natural language prompts, few-shot demonstrations, and fine-tuning. We find that LLMs' performance can be \textbf{passively} improved through the above external intervention. Overall, systematic compositionality remains an open challenge for large language models.