Learning multivariate Gaussians with imperfect advice

We revisit the problem of distribution learning within the framework of learning-augmented algorithms. In this setting, we explore the scenario where a probability distribution is provided as potentially inaccurate advice on the true, unknown distribution. Our objective is to develop learning algorithms whose sample complexity decreases as the quality of the advice improves, thereby surpassing standard learning lower bounds when the advice is sufficiently accurate. Specifically, we demonstrate that this outcome is achievable for the problem of learning a multivariate Gaussian distribution $N(\boldsymbol{\mu}, \boldsymbol{\Sigma})$ in the PAC learning setting. Classically, in the advice-free setting, $\tilde{\Theta}(d^2/\varepsilon^2)$ samples are sufficient and worst case necessary to learn $d$-dimensional Gaussians up to TV distance $\varepsilon$ with constant probability. When we are additionally given a parameter $\tilde{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}$ as advice, we show that $\tilde{O}(d^{2-\beta}/\varepsilon^2)$ samples suffices whenever $\| \tilde{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}^{-1/2} \boldsymbol{\Sigma} \tilde{\boldsymbol{\Sigma}}^{-1/2} - \boldsymbol{I_d} \|_1 \leq \varepsilon d^{1-\beta}$ (where $\|\cdot\|_1$ denotes the entrywise $\ell_1$ norm) for any $\beta > 0$, yielding a polynomial improvement over the advice-free setting.

Efficient, Low-Regret, Online Reinforcement Learning for Linear MDPs

Reinforcement learning algorithms are usually stated without theoretical guarantees regarding their performance. Recently, Jin, Yang, Wang, and Jordan (COLT 2020) showed a polynomial-time reinforcement learning algorithm (namely, LSVI-UCB) for the setting of linear Markov decision processes, and provided theoretical guarantees regarding its running time and regret. In real-world scenarios, however, the space usage of this algorithm can be prohibitive due to a utilized linear regression step. We propose and analyze two modifications of LSVI-UCB, which alternate periods of learning and not-learning, to reduce space and time usage while maintaining sublinear regret. We show experimentally, on synthetic data and real-world benchmarks, that our algorithms achieve low space usage and running time, while not significantly sacrificing regret.

Probably approximately correct high-dimensional causal effect estimation given a valid adjustment set

Accurate estimates of causal effects play a key role in decision-making across applications such as healthcare, economics, and operations. In the absence of randomized experiments, a common approach to estimating causal effects uses \textit{covariate adjustment}. In this paper, we study covariate adjustment for discrete distributions from the PAC learning perspective, assuming knowledge of a valid adjustment set $\bZ$, which might be high-dimensional. Our first main result PAC-bounds the estimation error of covariate adjustment by a term that is exponential in the size of the adjustment set; it is known that such a dependency is unavoidable even if one only aims to minimize the mean squared error. Motivated by this result, we introduce the notion of an \emph{$\eps$-Markov blanket}, give bounds on the misspecification error of using such a set for covariate adjustment, and provide an algorithm for $\eps$-Markov blanket discovery; our second main result upper bounds the sample complexity of this algorithm. Furthermore, we provide a misspecification error bound and a constraint-based algorithm that allow us to go beyond $\eps$-Markov blankets to even smaller adjustment sets. Our third main result upper bounds the sample complexity of this algorithm, and our final result combines the first three into an overall PAC bound. Altogether, our results highlight that one does not need to perfectly recover causal structure in order to ensure accurate estimates of causal effects.

Learnability of Parameter-Bounded Bayes Nets

Bayes nets are extensively used in practice to efficiently represent joint probability distributions over a set of random variables and capture dependency relations. In a seminal paper, Chickering et al. (JMLR 2004) showed that given a distribution $P$, that is defined as the marginal distribution of a Bayes net, it is $\mathsf{NP}$-hard to decide whether there is a parameter-bounded Bayes net that represents $P$. They called this problem LEARN. In this work, we extend the $\mathsf{NP}$-hardness result of LEARN and prove the $\mathsf{NP}$-hardness of a promise search variant of LEARN, whereby the Bayes net in question is guaranteed to exist and one is asked to find such a Bayes net. We complement our hardness result with a positive result about the sample complexity that is sufficient to recover a parameter-bounded Bayes net that is close (in TV distance) to a given distribution $P$, that is represented by some parameter-bounded Bayes net, generalizing a degree-bounded sample complexity result of Brustle et al. (EC 2020).

Online bipartite matching with imperfect advice

We study the problem of online unweighted bipartite matching with $n$ offline vertices and $n$ online vertices where one wishes to be competitive against the optimal offline algorithm. While the classic RANKING algorithm of Karp et al. [1990] provably attains competitive ratio of $1-1/e > 1/2$, we show that no learning-augmented method can be both 1-consistent and strictly better than $1/2$-robust under the adversarial arrival model. Meanwhile, under the random arrival model, we show how one can utilize methods from distribution testing to design an algorithm that takes in external advice about the online vertices and provably achieves competitive ratio interpolating between any ratio attainable by advice-free methods and the optimal ratio of 1, depending on the advice quality.

Distribution Learning Meets Graph Structure Sampling

This work establishes a novel link between the problem of PAC-learning high-dimensional graphical models and the task of (efficient) counting and sampling of graph structures, using an online learning framework. We observe that if we apply the exponentially weighted average (EWA) or randomized weighted majority (RWM) forecasters on a sequence of samples from a distribution P using the log loss function, the average regret incurred by the forecaster's predictions can be used to bound the expected KL divergence between P and the predictions. Known regret bounds for EWA and RWM then yield new sample complexity bounds for learning Bayes nets. Moreover, these algorithms can be made computationally efficient for several interesting classes of Bayes nets. Specifically, we give a new sample-optimal and polynomial time learning algorithm with respect to trees of unknown structure and the first polynomial sample and time algorithm for learning with respect to Bayes nets over a given chordal skeleton.

Outlier Robust Multivariate Polynomial Regression

We study the problem of robust multivariate polynomial regression: let $p\colon\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}$ be an unknown $n$-variate polynomial of degree at most $d$ in each variable. We are given as input a set of random samples $(\mathbf{x}_i,y_i) \in [-1,1]^n \times \mathbb{R}$ that are noisy versions of $(\mathbf{x}_i,p(\mathbf{x}_i))$. More precisely, each $\mathbf{x}_i$ is sampled independently from some distribution $\chi$ on $[-1,1]^n$, and for each $i$ independently, $y_i$ is arbitrary (i.e., an outlier) with probability at most $\rho < 1/2$, and otherwise satisfies $|y_i-p(\mathbf{x}_i)|\leq\sigma$. The goal is to output a polynomial $\hat{p}$, of degree at most $d$ in each variable, within an $\ell_\infty$-distance of at most $O(\sigma)$ from $p$. Kane, Karmalkar, and Price [FOCS'17] solved this problem for $n=1$. We generalize their results to the $n$-variate setting, showing an algorithm that achieves a sample complexity of $O_n(d^n\log d)$, where the hidden constant depends on $n$, if $\chi$ is the $n$-dimensional Chebyshev distribution. The sample complexity is $O_n(d^{2n}\log d)$, if the samples are drawn from the uniform distribution instead. The approximation error is guaranteed to be at most $O(\sigma)$, and the run-time depends on $\log(1/\sigma)$. In the setting where each $\mathbf{x}_i$ and $y_i$ are known up to $N$ bits of precision, the run-time's dependence on $N$ is linear. We also show that our sample complexities are optimal in terms of $d^n$. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to have the run-time be independent of $1/\sigma$, at the cost of a higher sample complexity.

Optimal estimation of Gaussian (poly)trees

We develop optimal algorithms for learning undirected Gaussian trees and directed Gaussian polytrees from data. We consider both problems of distribution learning (i.e. in KL distance) and structure learning (i.e. exact recovery). The first approach is based on the Chow-Liu algorithm, and learns an optimal tree-structured distribution efficiently. The second approach is a modification of the PC algorithm for polytrees that uses partial correlation as a conditional independence tester for constraint-based structure learning. We derive explicit finite-sample guarantees for both approaches, and show that both approaches are optimal by deriving matching lower bounds. Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to compare the performance of various algorithms, providing further insights and empirical evidence.

Learning bounded-degree polytrees with known skeleton

We establish finite-sample guarantees for efficient proper learning of bounded-degree polytrees, a rich class of high-dimensional probability distributions and a subclass of Bayesian networks, a widely-studied type of graphical model. Recently, Bhattacharyya et al. (2021) obtained finite-sample guarantees for recovering tree-structured Bayesian networks, i.e., 1-polytrees. We extend their results by providing an efficient algorithm which learns $d$-polytrees in polynomial time and sample complexity for any bounded $d$ when the underlying undirected graph (skeleton) is known. We complement our algorithm with an information-theoretic sample complexity lower bound, showing that the dependence on the dimension and target accuracy parameters are nearly tight.

Total Variation Distance Estimation Is as Easy as Probabilistic Inference

In this paper, we establish a novel connection between total variation (TV) distance estimation and probabilistic inference. In particular, we present an efficient, structure-preserving reduction from relative approximation of TV distance to probabilistic inference over directed graphical models. This reduction leads to a fully polynomial randomized approximation scheme (FPRAS) for estimating TV distances between distributions over any class of Bayes nets for which there is an efficient probabilistic inference algorithm. In particular, it leads to an FPRAS for estimating TV distances between distributions that are defined by Bayes nets of bounded treewidth. Prior to this work, such approximation schemes only existed for estimating TV distances between product distributions. Our approach employs a new notion of $partial$ couplings of high-dimensional distributions, which might be of independent interest.