VLM Judges Can Rank but Cannot Score: Task-Dependent Uncertainty in Multimodal Evaluation

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly used as automated judges for multimodal systems, yet their scores provide no indication of reliability. We study this problem through conformal prediction, a distribution-free framework that converts a judge's point score into a calibrated prediction interval using only score-token log-probabilities, with no retraining. We present the first systematic analysis of conformal prediction for VLM-as-a-Judge across 3 judges and 14 visual task categories. Our results show that evaluation uncertainty is strongly task-dependent: intervals cover ~40% of the score range for aesthetics and natural images but expand to ~70% for chart and mathematical reasoning, yielding a quantitative reliability map for multimodal evaluation. We further identify a failure mode not captured by standard evaluation metrics, ranking-scoring decoupling, where judges achieve high ranking correlation while producing wide, uninformative intervals, correctly ordering responses but failing to assign reliable absolute scores. Finally, we show that interval width is driven primarily by task difficulty and annotation quality, i.e., the same judge and method yield 4.5x narrower intervals on a clean, multi-annotator captioning benchmark. Code: https://github.com/divake/VLM-Judge-Uncertainty

ProGAL-VLA: Grounded Alignment through Prospective Reasoning in Vision-Language-Action Models

Vision language action (VLA) models enable generalist robotic agents but often exhibit language ignorance, relying on visual shortcuts and remaining insensitive to instruction changes. We present Prospective Grounding and Alignment VLA (ProGAL-VLA), which constructs a 3D entity-centric graph (GSM), uses a slow planner to produce symbolic sub-goals, and aligns them with grounded entities via a Grounding Alignment Contrastive (GAC) loss. All actions are conditioned on a verified goal embedding $g_t$, whose attention entropy provides an intrinsic ambiguity signal. On LIBERO-Plus, ProGAL-VLA increases robustness under robot perturbations from 30.3 to 71.5 percent, reduces language ignorance by 3x-4x, and improves entity retrieval from 0.41 to 0.71 Recall@1. On the Custom Ambiguity Benchmark, it reaches AUROC 0.81 (vs. 0.52), AUPR 0.79, and raises clarification on ambiguous inputs from 0.09 to 0.81 without harming unambiguous success. The verification bottleneck increases mutual information of language-actions, the GAC loss imposes an entity-level InfoNCE bound, and attention entropy yields calibrated selective prediction, indicating that explicit verified grounding is an effective path toward instruction-sensitive, ambiguity-aware agents.

Belief Dynamics for Detecting Behavioral Shifts in Safe Collaborative Manipulation

Robots operating in shared workspaces must maintain safe coordination with other agents whose behavior may change during task execution. When a collaborating agent switches strategy mid-episode, continuing under outdated assumptions can lead to unsafe actions and increased collision risk. Reliable detection of such behavioral regime changes is therefore critical. We study regime-switch detection under controlled non-stationarity in ManiSkill shared-workspace manipulation tasks. Across ten detection methods and five random seeds, enabling detection reduces post-switch collisions by 52%. However, average performance hides significant reliability differences: under a realistic tolerance of +-3 steps, detection ranges from 86% to 30%, while under +-5 steps all methods achieve 100%. We introduce UA-TOM, a lightweight belief-tracking module that augments frozen vision-language-action (VLA) control backbones using selective state-space dynamics, causal attention, and prediction-error signals. Across five seeds and 1200 episodes, UA-TOM achieves the highest detection rate among unassisted methods (85.7% at +-3) and the lowest close-range time (4.8 steps), outperforming an Oracle (5.3 steps). Analysis shows hidden-state update magnitude increases by 17x at regime switches and decays over roughly 10 timesteps, while the discretization step converges to a near-constant value (Delta_t approx 0.78), indicating sensitivity driven by learned dynamics rather than input-dependent gating. Cross-domain experiments in Overcooked show complementary roles of causal attention and prediction-error signals. UA-TOM introduces 7.4 ms inference overhead (14.8% of a 50 ms control budget), enabling reliable regime-switch detection without modifying the base policy.

TRIAGE: Type-Routed Interventions via Aleatoric-Epistemic Gated Estimation in Robotic Manipulation and Adaptive Perception -- Don't Treat All Uncertainty the Same

Most uncertainty-aware robotic systems collapse prediction uncertainty into a single scalar score and use it to trigger uniform corrective responses. This aggregation obscures whether uncertainty arises from corrupted observations or from mismatch between the learned model and the true system dynamics. As a result, corrective actions may be applied to the wrong component of the closed loop, degrading performance relative to leaving the policy unchanged. We introduce a lightweight post hoc framework that decomposes uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components and uses these signals to regulate system responses at inference time. Aleatoric uncertainty is estimated from deviations in the observation distribution using a Mahalanobis density model, while epistemic uncertainty is detected using a noise robust forward dynamics ensemble that isolates model mismatch from measurement corruption. The two signals remain empirically near orthogonal during closed loop execution and enable type specific responses. High aleatoric uncertainty triggers observation recovery, while high epistemic uncertainty moderates control actions. The same signals also regulate adaptive perception by guiding model capacity selection during tracking inference. Experiments demonstrate consistent improvements across both control and perception tasks. In robotic manipulation, the decomposed controller improves task success from 59.4% to 80.4% under compound perturbations and outperforms a combined uncertainty baseline by up to 21.0%. In adaptive tracking inference on MOT17, uncertainty-guided model selection reduces average compute by 58.2% relative to a fixed high capacity detector while preserving detection quality within 0.4%. Code and demo videos are available at https://divake.github.io/uncertainty-decomposition/.

Residual Control for Fast Recovery from Dynamics Shifts

Robotic systems operating in real-world environments inevitably encounter unobserved dynamics shifts during continuous execution, including changes in actuation, mass distribution, or contact conditions. When such shifts occur mid-episode, even locally stabilizing learned policies can experience substantial transient performance degradation. While input-to-state stability guarantees bounded state deviation, it does not ensure rapid restoration of task-level performance. We address inference-time recovery under frozen policy parameters by casting adaptation as constrained disturbance shaping around a nominal stabilizing controller. We propose a stability-aligned residual control architecture in which a reinforcement learning policy trained under nominal dynamics remains fixed at deployment, and adaptation occurs exclusively through a bounded additive residual channel. A Stability Alignment Gate (SAG) regulates corrective authority through magnitude constraints, directional coherence with the nominal action, performance-conditioned activation, and adaptive gain modulation. These mechanisms preserve the nominal closed-loop structure while enabling rapid compensation for unobserved dynamics shifts without retraining or privileged disturbance information. Across mid-episode perturbations including actuator degradation, mass variation, and contact changes, the proposed method consistently reduces recovery time relative to frozen and online-adaptation baselines while maintaining near-nominal steady-state performance. Recovery time is reduced by \textbf{87\%} on the Go1 quadruped, \textbf{48\%} on the Cassie biped, \textbf{30\%} on the H1 humanoid, and \textbf{20\%} on the Scout wheeled platform on average across evaluated conditions relative to a frozen SAC policy.

Uncertainty-Guided Inference-Time Depth Adaptation for Transformer-Based Visual Tracking

Transformer-based single-object trackers achieve state-of-the-art accuracy but rely on fixed-depth inference, executing the full encoder--decoder stack for every frame regardless of visual complexity, thereby incurring unnecessary computational cost in long video sequences dominated by temporally coherent frames. We propose UncL-STARK, an architecture-preserving approach that enables dynamic, uncertainty-aware depth adaptation in transformer-based trackers without modifying the underlying network or adding auxiliary heads. The model is fine-tuned to retain predictive robustness at multiple intermediate depths using random-depth training with knowledge distillation, thus enabling safe inference-time truncation. At runtime, we derive a lightweight uncertainty estimate directly from the model's corner localization heatmaps and use it in a feedback-driven policy that selects the encoder and decoder depth for the next frame based on the prediction confidence by exploiting temporal coherence in video. Extensive experiments on GOT-10k and LaSOT demonstrate up to 12\% GFLOPs reduction, 8.9\% latency reduction, and 10.8\% energy savings while maintaining tracking accuracy within 0.2\% of the full-depth baseline across both short-term and long-term sequences.

TRACER: Trajectory Risk Aggregation for Critical Episodes in Agentic Reasoning

Estimating uncertainty for AI agents in real-world multi-turn tool-using interaction with humans is difficult because failures are often triggered by sparse critical episodes (e.g., looping, incoherent tool use, or user-agent miscoordination) even when local generation appears confident. Existing uncertainty proxies focus on single-shot text generation and therefore miss these trajectory-level breakdown signals. We introduce TRACER, a trajectory-level uncertainty metric for dual-control Tool-Agent-User interaction. TRACER combines content-aware surprisal with situational-awareness signals, semantic and lexical repetition, and tool-grounded coherence gaps, and aggregates them using a tail-focused risk functional with a MAX-composite step risk to surface decisive anomalies. We evaluate TRACER on $τ^2$-bench by predicting task failure and selective task execution. To this end, TRACER improves AUROC by up to 37.1% and AUARC by up to 55% over baselines, enabling earlier and more accurate detection of uncertainty in complex conversational tool-use settings. Our code and benchmark are available at https://github.com/sinatayebati/agent-tracer.

Cerebellar-Inspired Residual Control for Fault Recovery: From Inference-Time Adaptation to Structural Consolidation

Robotic policies deployed in real-world environments often encounter post-training faults, where retraining, exploration, or system identification are impractical. We introduce an inference-time, cerebellar-inspired residual control framework that augments a frozen reinforcement learning policy with online corrective actions, enabling fault recovery without modifying base policy parameters. The framework instantiates core cerebellar principles, including high-dimensional pattern separation via fixed feature expansion, parallel microzone-style residual pathways, and local error-driven plasticity with excitatory and inhibitory eligibility traces operating at distinct time scales. These mechanisms enable fast, localized correction under post-training disturbances while avoiding destabilizing global policy updates. A conservative, performance-driven meta-adaptation regulates residual authority and plasticity, preserving nominal behavior and suppressing unnecessary intervention. Experiments on MuJoCo benchmarks under actuator, dynamic, and environmental perturbations show improvements of up to $+66\%$ on \texttt{HalfCheetah-v5} and $+53\%$ on \texttt{Humanoid-v5} under moderate faults, with graceful degradation under severe shifts and complementary robustness from consolidating persistent residual corrections into policy parameters.

Calibrated Decomposition of Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Deep Features for Inference-Time Adaptation

Most estimators collapse all uncertainty modes into a single confidence score, preventing reliable reasoning about when to allocate more compute or adjust inference. We introduce Uncertainty-Guided Inference-Time Selection, a lightweight inference time framework that disentangles aleatoric (data-driven) and epistemic (model-driven) uncertainty directly in deep feature space. Aleatoric uncertainty is estimated using a regularized global density model, while epistemic uncertainty is formed from three complementary components that capture local support deficiency, manifold spectral collapse, and cross-layer feature inconsistency. These components are empirically orthogonal and require no sampling, no ensembling, and no additional forward passes. We integrate the decomposed uncertainty into a distribution free conformal calibration procedure that yields significantly tighter prediction intervals at matched coverage. Using these components for uncertainty guided adaptive model selection reduces compute by approximately 60 percent on MOT17 with negligible accuracy loss, enabling practical self regulating visual inference. Additionally, our ablation results show that the proposed orthogonal uncertainty decomposition consistently yields higher computational savings across all MOT17 sequences, improving margins by 13.6 percentage points over the total-uncertainty baseline.

Learnable Conformal Prediction with Context-Aware Nonconformity Functions for Robotic Planning and Perception

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP) addresses this gap by providing distribution-free coverage guarantees, yet its reliance on fixed nonconformity scores ignores context and can yield intervals that are overly conservative or unsafe. We address this with Learnable Conformal Prediction (LCP), which replaces fixed scores with a lightweight neural function that leverages geometric, semantic, and task-specific features to produce context-aware uncertainty sets. LCP maintains CP's theoretical guarantees while reducing prediction set sizes by 18% in classification, tightening detection intervals by 52%, and improving path planning safety from 72% to 91% success with minimal overhead. Across three robotic tasks on seven benchmarks, LCP consistently outperforms Standard CP and ensemble baselines. In classification on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet, it achieves smaller set sizes (4.7-9.9% reduction) at target coverage. For object detection on COCO, BDD100K, and Cityscapes, it produces 46-54% tighter bounding boxes. In path planning through cluttered environments, it improves success to 91.5% with only 4.5% path inflation, compared to 12.2% for Standard CP. The method is lightweight (approximately 4.8% runtime overhead, 42 KB memory) and supports online adaptation, making it well suited to resource-constrained autonomous systems. Hardware evaluation shows LCP adds less than 1% memory and 15.9% inference overhead, yet sustains 39 FPS on detection tasks while being 7.4 times more energy-efficient than ensembles.