Quantifying Qualitative Insights: Leveraging LLMs to Market Predict

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have the potential to transform financial analytics by integrating numerical and textual data. However, challenges such as insufficient context when fusing multimodal information and the difficulty in measuring the utility of qualitative outputs, which LLMs generate as text, have limited their effectiveness in tasks such as financial forecasting. This study addresses these challenges by leveraging daily reports from securities firms to create high-quality contextual information. The reports are segmented into text-based key factors and combined with numerical data, such as price information, to form context sets. By dynamically updating few-shot examples based on the query time, the sets incorporate the latest information, forming a highly relevant set closely aligned with the query point. Additionally, a crafted prompt is designed to assign scores to the key factors, converting qualitative insights into quantitative results. The derived scores undergo a scaling process, transforming them into real-world values that are used for prediction. Our experiments demonstrate that LLMs outperform time-series models in market forecasting, though challenges such as imperfect reproducibility and limited explainability remain.

WgLaSDI: Weak-Form Greedy Latent Space Dynamics Identification

The parametric greedy latent space dynamics identification (gLaSDI) framework has demonstrated promising potential for accurate and efficient modeling of high-dimensional nonlinear physical systems. However, it remains challenging to handle noisy data. To enhance robustness against noise, we incorporate the weak-form estimation of nonlinear dynamics (WENDy) into gLaSDI. In the proposed weak-form gLaSDI (WgLaSDI) framework, an autoencoder and WENDy are trained simultaneously to discover intrinsic nonlinear latent-space dynamics of high-dimensional data. Compared to the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) employed in gLaSDI, WENDy enables variance reduction and robust latent space discovery, therefore leading to more accurate and efficient reduced-order modeling. Furthermore, the greedy physics-informed active learning in WgLaSDI enables adaptive sampling of optimal training data on the fly for enhanced modeling accuracy. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated by modeling various nonlinear dynamical problems, including viscous and inviscid Burgers' equations, time-dependent radial advection, and the Vlasov equation for plasma physics. With data that contains 5-10% Gaussian white noise, WgLaSDI outperforms gLaSDI by orders of magnitude, achieving 1-7% relative errors. Compared with the high-fidelity models, WgLaSDI achieves 121 to 1,779x speed-up.

A Comprehensive Review of Latent Space Dynamics Identification Algorithms for Intrusive and Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order-Modeling

Numerical solvers of partial differential equations (PDEs) have been widely employed for simulating physical systems. However, the computational cost remains a major bottleneck in various scientific and engineering applications, which has motivated the development of reduced-order models (ROMs). Recently, machine-learning-based ROMs have gained significant popularity and are promising for addressing some limitations of traditional ROM methods, especially for advection dominated systems. In this chapter, we focus on a particular framework known as Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), which transforms the high-fidelity data, governed by a PDE, to simpler and low-dimensional latent-space data, governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These ODEs can be learned and subsequently interpolated to make ROM predictions. Each building block of LaSDI can be easily modulated depending on the application, which makes the LaSDI framework highly flexible. In particular, we present strategies to enforce the laws of thermodynamics into LaSDI models (tLaSDI), enhance robustness in the presence of noise through the weak form (WLaSDI), select high-fidelity training data efficiently through active learning (gLaSDI, GPLaSDI), and quantify the ROM prediction uncertainty through Gaussian processes (GPLaSDI). We demonstrate the performance of different LaSDI approaches on Burgers equation, a non-linear heat conduction problem, and a plasma physics problem, showing that LaSDI algorithms can achieve relative errors of less than a few percent and up to thousands of times speed-ups.

tLaSDI: Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

We propose a data-driven latent space dynamics identification method (tLaSDI) that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The dynamics of the latent variables are constructed by a neural network-based model that preserves certain structures to respect the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate of the approximation is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. Both the autoencoder and the latent dynamics are trained to minimize the new loss. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between the entropy production rates in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

Data-Driven Autoencoder Numerical Solver with Uncertainty Quantification for Fast Physical Simulations

Traditional partial differential equation (PDE) solvers can be computationally expensive, which motivates the development of faster methods, such as reduced-order-models (ROMs). We present GPLaSDI, a hybrid deep-learning and Bayesian ROM. GPLaSDI trains an autoencoder on full-order-model (FOM) data and simultaneously learns simpler equations governing the latent space. These equations are interpolated with Gaussian Processes, allowing for uncertainty quantification and active learning, even with limited access to the FOM solver. Our framework is able to achieve up to 100,000 times speed-up and less than 7% relative error on fluid mechanics problems.

Reduced-order modeling for parameterized PDEs via implicit neural representations

We present a new data-driven reduced-order modeling approach to efficiently solve parametrized partial differential equations (PDEs) for many-query problems. This work is inspired by the concept of implicit neural representation (INR), which models physics signals in a continuous manner and independent of spatial/temporal discretization. The proposed framework encodes PDE and utilizes a parametrized neural ODE (PNODE) to learn latent dynamics characterized by multiple PDE parameters. PNODE can be inferred by a hypernetwork to reduce the potential difficulties in learning PNODE due to a complex multilayer perceptron (MLP). The framework uses an INR to decode the latent dynamics and reconstruct accurate PDE solutions. Further, a physics-informed loss is also introduced to correct the prediction of unseen parameter instances. Incorporating the physics-informed loss also enables the model to be fine-tuned in an unsupervised manner on unseen PDE parameters. A numerical experiment is performed on a two-dimensional Burgers equation with a large variation of PDE parameters. We evaluate the proposed method at a large Reynolds number and obtain up to speedup of O(10^3) and ~1% relative error to the ground truth values.

Weak-Form Latent Space Dynamics Identification

Recent work in data-driven modeling has demonstrated that a weak formulation of model equations enhances the noise robustness of a wide range of computational methods. In this paper, we demonstrate the power of the weak form to enhance the LaSDI (Latent Space Dynamics Identification) algorithm, a recently developed data-driven reduced order modeling technique. We introduce a weak form-based version WLaSDI (Weak-form Latent Space Dynamics Identification). WLaSDI first compresses data, then projects onto the test functions and learns the local latent space models. Notably, WLaSDI demonstrates significantly enhanced robustness to noise. With WLaSDI, the local latent space is obtained using weak-form equation learning techniques. Compared to the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) used in LaSDI, the variance reduction of the weak form guarantees a robust and precise latent space recovery, hence allowing for a fast, robust, and accurate simulation. We demonstrate the efficacy of WLaSDI vs. LaSDI on several common benchmark examples including viscid and inviscid Burgers', radial advection, and heat conduction. For instance, in the case of 1D inviscid Burgers' simulations with the addition of up to 100% Gaussian white noise, the relative error remains consistently below 6% for WLaSDI, while it can exceed 10,000% for LaSDI. Similarly, for radial advection simulations, the relative errors stay below 15% for WLaSDI, in stark contrast to the potential errors of up to 10,000% with LaSDI. Moreover, speedups of several orders of magnitude can be obtained with WLaSDI. For example applying WLaSDI to 1D Burgers' yields a 140X speedup compared to the corresponding full order model. Python code to reproduce the results in this work is available at (https://github.com/MathBioCU/PyWSINDy_ODE) and (https://github.com/MathBioCU/PyWLaSDI).

Progressive reduced order modeling: empowering data-driven modeling with selective knowledge transfer

Data-driven modeling can suffer from a constant demand for data, leading to reduced accuracy and impractical for engineering applications due to the high cost and scarcity of information. To address this challenge, we propose a progressive reduced order modeling framework that minimizes data cravings and enhances data-driven modeling's practicality. Our approach selectively transfers knowledge from previously trained models through gates, similar to how humans selectively use valuable knowledge while ignoring unuseful information. By filtering relevant information from previous models, we can create a surrogate model with minimal turnaround time and a smaller training set that can still achieve high accuracy. We have tested our framework in several cases, including transport in porous media, gravity-driven flow, and finite deformation in hyperelastic materials. Our results illustrate that retaining information from previous models and utilizing a valuable portion of that knowledge can significantly improve the accuracy of the current model. We have demonstrated the importance of progressive knowledge transfer and its impact on model accuracy with reduced training samples. For instance, our framework with four parent models outperforms the no-parent counterpart trained on data nine times larger. Our research unlocks data-driven modeling's potential for practical engineering applications by mitigating the data scarcity issue. Our proposed framework is a significant step toward more efficient and cost-effective data-driven modeling, fostering advancements across various fields.

GPLaSDI: Gaussian Process-based Interpretable Latent Space Dynamics Identification through Deep Autoencoder

Numerically solving partial differential equations (PDEs) can be challenging and computationally expensive. This has led to the development of reduced-order models (ROMs) that are accurate but faster than full order models (FOMs). Recently, machine learning advances have enabled the creation of non-linear projection methods, such as Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI). LaSDI maps full-order PDE solutions to a latent space using autoencoders and learns the system of ODEs governing the latent space dynamics. By interpolating and solving the ODE system in the reduced latent space, fast and accurate ROM predictions can be made by feeding the predicted latent space dynamics into the decoder. In this paper, we introduce GPLaSDI, a novel LaSDI-based framework that relies on Gaussian process (GP) for latent space ODE interpolations. Using GPs offers two significant advantages. First, it enables the quantification of uncertainty over the ROM predictions. Second, leveraging this prediction uncertainty allows for efficient adaptive training through a greedy selection of additional training data points. This approach does not require prior knowledge of the underlying PDEs. Consequently, GPLaSDI is inherently non-intrusive and can be applied to problems without a known PDE or its residual. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on the Burgers equation, Vlasov equation for plasma physics, and a rising thermal bubble problem. Our proposed method achieves between 200 and 100,000 times speed-up, with up to 7% relative error.

Certified data-driven physics-informed greedy auto-encoder simulator

A parametric adaptive greedy Latent Space Dynamics Identification (gLaSDI) framework is developed for accurate, efficient, and certified data-driven physics-informed greedy auto-encoder simulators of high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. In the proposed framework, an auto-encoder and dynamics identification models are trained interactively to discover intrinsic and simple latent-space dynamics. To effectively explore the parameter space for optimal model performance, an adaptive greedy sampling algorithm integrated with a physics-informed error indicator is introduced to search for optimal training samples on the fly, outperforming the conventional predefined uniform sampling. Further, an efficient k-nearest neighbor convex interpolation scheme is employed to exploit local latent-space dynamics for improved predictability. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves 121 to 2,658x speed-up with 1 to 5% relative errors for radial advection and 2D Burgers dynamical problems.