Multiscale Representation Enhanced Temporal Flow Fusion Model for Long-Term Workload Forecasting

Accurate workload forecasting is critical for efficient resource management in cloud computing systems, enabling effective scheduling and autoscaling. Despite recent advances with transformer-based forecasting models, challenges remain due to the non-stationary, nonlinear characteristics of workload time series and the long-term dependencies. In particular, inconsistent performance between long-term history and near-term forecasts hinders long-range predictions. This paper proposes a novel framework leveraging self-supervised multiscale representation learning to capture both long-term and near-term workload patterns. The long-term history is encoded through multiscale representations while the near-term observations are modeled via temporal flow fusion. These representations of different scales are fused using an attention mechanism and characterized with normalizing flows to handle non-Gaussian/non-linear distributions of time series. Extensive experiments on 9 benchmarks demonstrate superiority over existing methods.

Full Scaling Automation for Sustainable Development of Green Data Centers

The rapid rise in cloud computing has resulted in an alarming increase in data centers' carbon emissions, which now accounts for >3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating immediate steps to combat their mounting strain on the global climate. An important focus of this effort is to improve resource utilization in order to save electricity usage. Our proposed Full Scaling Automation (FSA) mechanism is an effective method of dynamically adapting resources to accommodate changing workloads in large-scale cloud computing clusters, enabling the clusters in data centers to maintain their desired CPU utilization target and thus improve energy efficiency. FSA harnesses the power of deep representation learning to accurately predict the future workload of each service and automatically stabilize the corresponding target CPU usage level, unlike the previous autoscaling methods, such as Autopilot or FIRM, that need to adjust computing resources with statistical models and expert knowledge. Our approach achieves significant performance improvement compared to the existing work in real-world datasets. We also deployed FSA on large-scale cloud computing clusters in industrial data centers, and according to the certification of the China Environmental United Certification Center (CEC), a reduction of 947 tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to a saving of 1538,000 kWh of electricity, was achieved during the Double 11 shopping festival of 2022, marking a critical step for our company's strategic goal towards carbon neutrality by 2030.

End-to-End Modeling Hierarchical Time Series Using Autoregressive Transformer and Conditional Normalizing Flow based Reconciliation

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts should satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints. Moreover, the disparities of statistical characteristics between levels can be huge, worsened by non-Gaussian distributions and non-linear correlations. To this extent, we propose a novel end-to-end hierarchical time series forecasting model, based on conditioned normalizing flow-based autoregressive transformer reconciliation, to represent complex data distribution while simultaneously reconciling the forecasts to ensure coherency. Unlike other state-of-the-art methods, we achieve the forecasting and reconciliation simultaneously without requiring any explicit post-processing step. In addition, by harnessing the power of deep model, we do not rely on any assumption such as unbiased estimates or Gaussian distribution. Our evaluation experiments are conducted on four real-world hierarchical datasets from different industrial domains (three public ones and a dataset from the application servers of Alipay's data center) and the preliminary results demonstrate efficacy of our proposed method.