Leveraging a Simulator for Learning Causal Representations from Post-Treatment Covariates for CATE

Treatment effect estimation involves assessing the impact of different treatments on individual outcomes. Current methods estimate Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) using observational datasets where covariates are collected before treatment assignment and outcomes are observed afterward, under assumptions like positivity and unconfoundedness. In this paper, we address a scenario where both covariates and outcomes are gathered after treatment. We show that post-treatment covariates render CATE unidentifiable, and recovering CATE requires learning treatment-independent causal representations. Prior work shows that such representations can be learned through contrastive learning if counterfactual supervision is available in observational data. However, since counterfactuals are rare, other works have explored using simulators that offer synthetic counterfactual supervision. Our goal in this paper is to systematically analyze the role of simulators in estimating CATE. We analyze the CATE error of several baselines and highlight their limitations. We then establish a generalization bound that characterizes the CATE error from jointly training on real and simulated distributions, as a function of the real-simulator mismatch. Finally, we introduce SimPONet, a novel method whose loss function is inspired from our generalization bound. We further show how SimPONet adjusts the simulator's influence on the learning objective based on the simulator's relevance to the CATE task. We experiment with various DGPs, by systematically varying the real-simulator distribution gap to evaluate SimPONet's efficacy against state-of-the-art CATE baselines.

Synthetic Tabular Data Generation for Imbalanced Classification: The Surprising Effectiveness of an Overlap Class

Handling imbalance in class distribution when building a classifier over tabular data has been a problem of long-standing interest. One popular approach is augmenting the training dataset with synthetically generated data. While classical augmentation techniques were limited to linear interpolation of existing minority class examples, recently higher capacity deep generative models are providing greater promise. However, handling of imbalance in class distribution when building a deep generative model is also a challenging problem, that has not been studied as extensively as imbalanced classifier model training. We show that state-of-the-art deep generative models yield significantly lower-quality minority examples than majority examples. %In this paper, we start with the observation that imbalanced data training of generative models trained imbalanced dataset which under-represent the minority class. We propose a novel technique of converting the binary class labels to ternary class labels by introducing a class for the region where minority and majority distributions overlap. We show that just this pre-processing of the training set, significantly improves the quality of data generated spanning several state-of-the-art diffusion and GAN-based models. While training the classifier using synthetic data, we remove the overlap class from the training data and justify the reasons behind the enhanced accuracy. We perform extensive experiments on four real-life datasets, five different classifiers, and five generative models demonstrating that our method enhances not only the synthesizer performance of state-of-the-art models but also the classifier performance.

Text-to-SQL Calibration: No Need to Ask -- Just Rescale Model Probabilities

Calibration is crucial as large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to convert natural language queries into SQL for commercial databases. In this work, we investigate calibration techniques for assigning confidence to generated SQL queries. We show that a straightforward baseline -- deriving confidence from the model's full-sequence probability -- outperforms recent methods that rely on follow-up prompts for self-checking and confidence verbalization. Our comprehensive evaluation, conducted across two widely-used Text-to-SQL benchmarks and multiple LLM architectures, provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of various calibration strategies.

SALSA: Speedy ASR-LLM Synchronous Aggregation

Harnessing pre-trained LLMs to improve ASR systems, particularly for low-resource languages, is now an emerging area of research. Existing methods range from using LLMs for ASR error correction to tightly coupled systems that replace the ASR decoder with the LLM. These approaches either increase decoding time or require expensive training of the cross-attention layers. We propose SALSA, which couples the decoder layers of the ASR to the LLM decoder, while synchronously advancing both decoders. Such coupling is performed with a simple projection of the last decoder state, and is thus significantly more training efficient than earlier approaches. A challenge of our proposed coupling is handling the mismatch between the tokenizers of the LLM and ASR systems. We handle this mismatch using cascading tokenization with respect to the LLM and ASR vocabularies. We evaluate SALSA on 8 low-resource languages in the FLEURS benchmark, yielding substantial WER reductions of up to 38%.

Efficient Training of Language Models with Compact and Consistent Next Token Distributions

Maximizing the likelihood of the next token is an established, statistically sound objective for pre-training language models. In this paper we show that we can train better models faster by pre-aggregating the corpus with a collapsed $n$-gram distribution. Previous studies have proposed corpus-level $n$-gram statistics as a regularizer; however, the construction and querying of such $n$-grams, if done naively, prove to be costly and significantly impede training speed, thereby limiting their application in modern large language model pre-training. We introduce an alternative compact representation of the next token distribution that, in expectation, aligns with the complete $n$-gram distribution while markedly reducing variance across mini-batches compared to the standard next-token loss. Empirically, we demonstrate that both the $n$-gram regularized model and our approximation yield substantial improvements in model quality and convergence rate compared to existing methods. Furthermore, our approximation facilitates scalability of gains to larger datasets and models compared to the straightforward $n$-gram regularization method.

PairNet: Training with Observed Pairs to Estimate Individual Treatment Effect

Given a dataset of individuals each described by a covariate vector, a treatment, and an observed outcome on the treatment, the goal of the individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation task is to predict outcome changes resulting from a change in treatment. A fundamental challenge is that in the observational data, a covariate's outcome is observed only under one treatment, whereas we need to infer the difference in outcomes under two different treatments. Several existing approaches address this issue through training with inferred pseudo-outcomes, but their success relies on the quality of these pseudo-outcomes. We propose PairNet, a novel ITE estimation training strategy that minimizes losses over pairs of examples based on their factual observed outcomes. Theoretical analysis for binary treatments reveals that PairNet is a consistent estimator of ITE risk, and achieves smaller generalization error than baseline models. Empirical comparison with thirteen existing methods across eight benchmarks, covering both discrete and continuous treatments, shows that PairNet achieves significantly lower ITE error compared to the baselines. Also, it is model-agnostic and easy to implement.

Continuous Treatment Effect Estimation Using Gradient Interpolation and Kernel Smoothing

We address the Individualized continuous treatment effect (ICTE) estimation problem where we predict the effect of any continuous-valued treatment on an individual using observational data. The main challenge in this estimation task is the potential confounding of treatment assignment with an individual's covariates in the training data, whereas during inference ICTE requires prediction on independently sampled treatments. In contrast to prior work that relied on regularizers or unstable GAN training, we advocate the direct approach of augmenting training individuals with independently sampled treatments and inferred counterfactual outcomes. We infer counterfactual outcomes using a two-pronged strategy: a Gradient Interpolation for close-to-observed treatments, and a Gaussian Process based Kernel Smoothing which allows us to downweigh high variance inferences. We evaluate our method on five benchmarks and show that our method outperforms six state-of-the-art methods on the counterfactual estimation error. We analyze the superior performance of our method by showing that (1) our inferred counterfactual responses are more accurate, and (2) adding them to the training data reduces the distributional distance between the confounded training distribution and test distribution where treatment is independent of covariates. Our proposed method is model-agnostic and we show that it improves ICTE accuracy of several existing models.

CRUSH4SQL: Collective Retrieval Using Schema Hallucination For Text2SQL

Existing Text-to-SQL generators require the entire schema to be encoded with the user text. This is expensive or impractical for large databases with tens of thousands of columns. Standard dense retrieval techniques are inadequate for schema subsetting of a large structured database, where the correct semantics of retrieval demands that we rank sets of schema elements rather than individual elements. In response, we propose a two-stage process for effective coverage during retrieval. First, we instruct an LLM to hallucinate a minimal DB schema deemed adequate to answer the query. We use the hallucinated schema to retrieve a subset of the actual schema, by composing the results from multiple dense retrievals. Remarkably, hallucination $\unicode{x2013}$ generally considered a nuisance $\unicode{x2013}$ turns out to be actually useful as a bridging mechanism. Since no existing benchmarks exist for schema subsetting on large databases, we introduce three benchmarks. Two semi-synthetic datasets are derived from the union of schemas in two well-known datasets, SPIDER and BIRD, resulting in 4502 and 798 schema elements respectively. A real-life benchmark called SocialDB is sourced from an actual large data warehouse comprising 17844 schema elements. We show that our method1 leads to significantly higher recall than SOTA retrieval-based augmentation methods.

Benchmarking and Improving Text-to-SQL Generation under Ambiguity

Research in Text-to-SQL conversion has been largely benchmarked against datasets where each text query corresponds to one correct SQL. However, natural language queries over real-life databases frequently involve significant ambiguity about the intended SQL due to overlapping schema names and multiple confusing relationship paths. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel benchmark called AmbiQT with over 3000 examples where each text is interpretable as two plausible SQLs due to lexical and/or structural ambiguity. When faced with ambiguity, an ideal top-$k$ decoder should generate all valid interpretations for possible disambiguation by the user. We evaluate several Text-to-SQL systems and decoding algorithms, including those employing state-of-the-art LLMs, and find them to be far from this ideal. The primary reason is that the prevalent beam search algorithm and its variants, treat SQL queries as a string and produce unhelpful token-level diversity in the top-$k$. We propose LogicalBeam, a new decoding algorithm that navigates the SQL logic space using a blend of plan-based template generation and constrained infilling. Counterfactually generated plans diversify templates while in-filling with a beam-search that branches solely on schema names provides value diversity. LogicalBeam is up to $2.5$ times more effective than state-of-the-art models at generating all candidate SQLs in the top-$k$ ranked outputs. It also enhances the top-$5$ Exact and Execution Match Accuracies on SPIDER and Kaggle DBQA.

Improving RNN-Transducers with Acoustic LookAhead

RNN-Transducers (RNN-Ts) have gained widespread acceptance as an end-to-end model for speech to text conversion because of their high accuracy and streaming capabilities. A typical RNN-T independently encodes the input audio and the text context, and combines the two encodings by a thin joint network. While this architecture provides SOTA streaming accuracy, it also makes the model vulnerable to strong LM biasing which manifests as multi-step hallucination of text without acoustic evidence. In this paper we propose LookAhead that makes text representations more acoustically grounded by looking ahead into the future within the audio input. This technique yields a significant 5%-20% relative reduction in word error rate on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluation sets.