Efficient Policy Evaluation with Safety Constraint for Reinforcement Learning

In reinforcement learning, classic on-policy evaluation methods often suffer from high variance and require massive online data to attain the desired accuracy. Previous studies attempt to reduce evaluation variance by searching for or designing proper behavior policies to collect data. However, these approaches ignore the safety of such behavior policies -- the designed behavior policies have no safety guarantee and may lead to severe damage during online executions. In this paper, to address the challenge of reducing variance while ensuring safety simultaneously, we propose an optimal variance-minimizing behavior policy under safety constraints. Theoretically, while ensuring safety constraints, our evaluation method is unbiased and has lower variance than on-policy evaluation. Empirically, our method is the only existing method to achieve both substantial variance reduction and safety constraint satisfaction. Furthermore, we show our method is even superior to previous methods in both variance reduction and execution safety.

Doubly Optimal Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning

Policy evaluation estimates the performance of a policy by (1) collecting data from the environment and (2) processing raw data into a meaningful estimate. Due to the sequential nature of reinforcement learning, any improper data-collecting policy or data-processing method substantially deteriorates the variance of evaluation results over long time steps. Thus, policy evaluation often suffers from large variance and requires massive data to achieve the desired accuracy. In this work, we design an optimal combination of data-collecting policy and data-processing baseline. Theoretically, we prove our doubly optimal policy evaluation method is unbiased and guaranteed to have lower variance than previously best-performing methods. Empirically, compared with previous works, we show our method reduces variance substantially and achieves superior empirical performance.

Almost Sure Convergence of Average Reward Temporal Difference Learning

Tabular average reward Temporal Difference (TD) learning is perhaps the simplest and the most fundamental policy evaluation algorithm in average reward reinforcement learning. After at least 25 years since its discovery, we are finally able to provide a long-awaited almost sure convergence analysis. Namely, we are the first to prove that, under very mild conditions, tabular average reward TD converges almost surely to a sample path dependent fixed point. Key to this success is a new general stochastic approximation result concerning nonexpansive mappings with Markovian and additive noise, built on recent advances in stochastic Krasnoselskii-Mann iterations.

Almost Sure Convergence of Linear Temporal Difference Learning with Arbitrary Features

Temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation, abbreviated as linear TD, is a classic and powerful prediction algorithm in reinforcement learning. While it is well understood that linear TD converges almost surely to a unique point, this convergence traditionally requires the assumption that the features used by the approximator are linearly independent. However, this linear independence assumption does not hold in many practical scenarios. This work is the first to establish the almost sure convergence of linear TD without requiring linearly independent features. In fact, we do not make any assumptions on the features. We prove that the approximated value function converges to a unique point and the weight iterates converge to a set. We also establish a notion of local stability of the weight iterates. Importantly, we do not need to introduce any other additional assumptions and do not need to make any modification to the linear TD algorithm. Key to our analysis is a novel characterization of bounded invariant sets of the mean ODE of linear TD.

Efficient Multi-Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning

To unbiasedly evaluate multiple target policies, the dominant approach among RL practitioners is to run and evaluate each target policy separately. However, this evaluation method is far from efficient because samples are not shared across policies, and running target policies to evaluate themselves is actually not optimal. In this paper, we address these two weaknesses by designing a tailored behavior policy to reduce the variance of estimators across all target policies. Theoretically, we prove that executing this behavior policy with manyfold fewer samples outperforms on-policy evaluation on every target policy under characterized conditions. Empirically, we show our estimator has a substantially lower variance compared with previous best methods and achieves state-of-the-art performance in a broad range of environments.

Transformers Learn Temporal Difference Methods for In-Context Reinforcement Learning

In-context learning refers to the learning ability of a model during inference time without adapting its parameters. The input (i.e., prompt) to the model (e.g., transformers) consists of both a context (i.e., instance-label pairs) and a query instance. The model is then able to output a label for the query instance according to the context during inference. A possible explanation for in-context learning is that the forward pass of (linear) transformers implements iterations of gradient descent on the instance-label pairs in the context. In this paper, we prove by construction that transformers can also implement temporal difference (TD) learning in the forward pass, a phenomenon we refer to as in-context TD. We demonstrate the emergence of in-context TD after training the transformer with a multi-task TD algorithm, accompanied by theoretical analysis. Furthermore, we prove that transformers are expressive enough to implement many other policy evaluation algorithms in the forward pass, including residual gradient, TD with eligibility trace, and average-reward TD.

The ODE Method for Stochastic Approximation and Reinforcement Learning with Markovian Noise

Stochastic approximation is a class of algorithms that update a vector iteratively, incrementally, and stochastically, including, e.g., stochastic gradient descent and temporal difference learning. One fundamental challenge in analyzing a stochastic approximation algorithm is to establish its stability, i.e., to show that the stochastic vector iterates are bounded almost surely. In this paper, we extend the celebrated Borkar-Meyn theorem for stability from the Martingale difference noise setting to the Markovian noise setting, which greatly improves its applicability in reinforcement learning, especially in those off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms with linear function approximation and eligibility traces. Central to our analysis is the diminishing asymptotic rate of change of a few functions, which is implied by both a form of strong law of large numbers and a commonly used V4 Lyapunov drift condition and trivially holds if the Markov chain is finite and irreducible.

AlphaStar Unplugged: Large-Scale Offline Reinforcement Learning

StarCraft II is one of the most challenging simulated reinforcement learning environments; it is partially observable, stochastic, multi-agent, and mastering StarCraft II requires strategic planning over long time horizons with real-time low-level execution. It also has an active professional competitive scene. StarCraft II is uniquely suited for advancing offline RL algorithms, both because of its challenging nature and because Blizzard has released a massive dataset of millions of StarCraft II games played by human players. This paper leverages that and establishes a benchmark, called AlphaStar Unplugged, introducing unprecedented challenges for offline reinforcement learning. We define a dataset (a subset of Blizzard's release), tools standardizing an API for machine learning methods, and an evaluation protocol. We also present baseline agents, including behavior cloning, offline variants of actor-critic and MuZero. We improve the state of the art of agents using only offline data, and we achieve 90% win rate against previously published AlphaStar behavior cloning agent.

Direct Gradient Temporal Difference Learning

Off-policy learning enables a reinforcement learning (RL) agent to reason counterfactually about policies that are not executed and is one of the most important ideas in RL. It, however, can lead to instability when combined with function approximation and bootstrapping, two arguably indispensable ingredients for large-scale reinforcement learning. This is the notorious deadly triad. Gradient Temporal Difference (GTD) is one powerful tool to solve the deadly triad. Its success results from solving a doubling sampling issue indirectly with weight duplication or Fenchel duality. In this paper, we instead propose a direct method to solve the double sampling issue by simply using two samples in a Markovian data stream with an increasing gap. The resulting algorithm is as computationally efficient as GTD but gets rid of GTD's extra weights. The only price we pay is a logarithmically increasing memory as time progresses. We provide both asymptotic and finite sample analysis, where the convergence rate is on-par with the canonical on-policy temporal difference learning. Key to our analysis is a novel refined discretization of limiting ODEs.

Improving Monte Carlo Evaluation with Offline Data

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are the most widely used methods to estimate the performance of a policy. Given an interested policy, MC methods give estimates by repeatedly running this policy to collect samples and taking the average of the outcomes. Samples collected during this process are called online samples. To get an accurate estimate, MC methods consume massive online samples. When online samples are expensive, e.g., online recommendations and inventory management, we want to reduce the number of online samples while achieving the same estimate accuracy. To this end, we use off-policy MC methods that evaluate the interested policy by running a different policy called behavior policy. We design a tailored behavior policy such that the variance of the off-policy MC estimator is provably smaller than the ordinary MC estimator. Importantly, this tailored behavior policy can be efficiently learned from existing offline data, i,e., previously logged data, which are much cheaper than online samples. With reduced variance, our off-policy MC method requires fewer online samples to evaluate the performance of a policy compared with the ordinary MC method. Moreover, our off-policy MC estimator is always unbiased.