A Practical Approach to Causal Inference over Time

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then, we show under which conditions the equilibrium states of a DSP, both before and after a causal intervention, can be captured by a structural causal model (SCM). With such an equivalence at hand, we provide an explicit mapping from vector autoregressive models (VARs), broadly applied in econometrics, to linear, but potentially cyclic and/or affected by unmeasured confounders, SCMs. The resulting causal VAR framework allows us to perform causal inference over time from observational time series data. Our experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed framework achieves strong performance in terms of observational forecasting while enabling accurate estimation of the causal effect of interventions on dynamical systems. We demonstrate, through a case study, the potential practical questions that can be addressed using the proposed causal VAR framework.

Enhancing Fairness through Reweighting: A Path to Attain the Sufficiency Rule

We introduce an innovative approach to enhancing the empirical risk minimization (ERM) process in model training through a refined reweighting scheme of the training data to enhance fairness. This scheme aims to uphold the sufficiency rule in fairness by ensuring that optimal predictors maintain consistency across diverse sub-groups. We employ a bilevel formulation to address this challenge, wherein we explore sample reweighting strategies. Unlike conventional methods that hinge on model size, our formulation bases generalization complexity on the space of sample weights. We discretize the weights to improve training speed. Empirical validation of our method showcases its effectiveness and robustness, revealing a consistent improvement in the balance between prediction performance and fairness metrics across various experiments.

A Causal Framework for Evaluating Deferring Systems

Deferring systems extend supervised Machine Learning (ML) models with the possibility to defer predictions to human experts. However, evaluating the impact of a deferring strategy on system accuracy is still an overlooked area. This paper fills this gap by evaluating deferring systems through a causal lens. We link the potential outcomes framework for causal inference with deferring systems. This allows us to identify the causal impact of the deferring strategy on predictive accuracy. We distinguish two scenarios. In the first one, we can access both the human and the ML model predictions for the deferred instances. In such a case, we can identify the individual causal effects for deferred instances and aggregates of them. In the second scenario, only human predictions are available for the deferred instances. In this case, we can resort to regression discontinuity design to estimate a local causal effect. We empirically evaluate our approach on synthetic and real datasets for seven deferring systems from the literature.

Uncovering Algorithmic Discrimination: An Opportunity to Revisit the Comparator

Causal reasoning, in particular, counterfactual reasoning plays a central role in testing for discrimination. Counterfactual reasoning materializes when testing for discrimination, what is known as the counterfactual model of discrimination, when we compare the discrimination comparator with the discrimination complainant, where the comparator is a similar (or similarly situated) profile to that of the complainant used for testing the discrimination claim of the complainant. In this paper, we revisit the comparator by presenting two kinds of comparators based on the sort of causal intervention we want to represent. We present the ceteris paribus and the mutatis mutandis comparator, where the former is the standard and the latter is a new kind of comparator. We argue for the use of the mutatis mutandis comparator, which is built on the fairness given the difference notion, for testing future algorithmic discrimination cases.

Causal Perception

Perception occurs when two individuals interpret the same information differently. Despite being a known phenomenon with implications for bias in decision-making, as individuals' experience determines interpretation, perception remains largely overlooked in automated decision-making (ADM) systems. In particular, it can have considerable effects on the fairness or fair usage of an ADM system, as fairness itself is context-specific and its interpretation dependent on who is judging. In this work, we formalize perception under causal reasoning to capture the act of interpretation by an individual. We also formalize individual experience as additional causal knowledge that comes with and is used by an individual. Further, we define and discuss loaded attributes, which are attributes prone to evoke perception. Sensitive attributes, such as gender and race, are clear examples of loaded attributes. We define two kinds of causal perception, unfaithful and inconsistent, based on the causal properties of faithfulness and consistency. We illustrate our framework through a series of decision-making examples and discuss relevant fairness applications. The goal of this work is to position perception as a parameter of interest, useful for extending the standard, single interpretation ADM problem formulation.

Deep Neural Network Benchmarks for Selective Classification

With the increasing deployment of machine learning models in many socially-sensitive tasks, there is a growing demand for reliable and trustworthy predictions. One way to accomplish these requirements is to allow a model to abstain from making a prediction when there is a high risk of making an error. This requires adding a selection mechanism to the model, which selects those examples for which the model will provide a prediction. The selective classification framework aims to design a mechanism that balances the fraction of rejected predictions (i.e., the proportion of examples for which the model does not make a prediction) versus the improvement in predictive performance on the selected predictions. Multiple selective classification frameworks exist, most of which rely on deep neural network architectures. However, the empirical evaluation of the existing approaches is still limited to partial comparisons among methods and settings, providing practitioners with little insight into their relative merits. We fill this gap by benchmarking 18 baselines on a diverse set of 44 datasets that includes both image and tabular data. Moreover, there is a mix of binary and multiclass tasks. We evaluate these approaches using several criteria, including selective error rate, empirical coverage, distribution of rejected instance's classes, and performance on out-of-distribution instances. The results indicate that there is not a single clear winner among the surveyed baselines, and the best method depends on the users' objectives.

Correlation and Unintended Biases on Univariate and Multivariate Decision Trees

Decision Trees are accessible, interpretable, and well-performing classification models. A plethora of variants with increasing expressiveness has been proposed in the last forty years. We contrast the two families of univariate DTs, whose split functions partition data through axis-parallel hyperplanes, and multivariate DTs, whose splits instead partition data through oblique hyperplanes. The latter include the former, hence multivariate DTs are in principle more powerful. Surprisingly enough, however, univariate DTs consistently show comparable performances in the literature. We analyze the reasons behind this, both with synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets. Our research questions test whether the pre-processing phase of removing correlation among features in datasets has an impact on the relative performances of univariate vs multivariate DTs. We find that existing benchmark datasets are likely biased towards favoring univariate DTs.

Causal Fairness-Guided Dataset Reweighting using Neural Networks

The importance of achieving fairness in machine learning models cannot be overstated. Recent research has pointed out that fairness should be examined from a causal perspective, and several fairness notions based on the on Pearl's causal framework have been proposed. In this paper, we construct a reweighting scheme of datasets to address causal fairness. Our approach aims at mitigating bias by considering the causal relationships among variables and incorporating them into the reweighting process. The proposed method adopts two neural networks, whose structures are intentionally used to reflect the structures of a causal graph and of an interventional graph. The two neural networks can approximate the causal model of the data, and the causal model of interventions. Furthermore, reweighting guided by a discriminator is applied to achieve various fairness notions. Experiments on real-world datasets show that our method can achieve causal fairness on the data while remaining close to the original data for downstream tasks.

Declarative Reasoning on Explanations Using Constraint Logic Programming

Explaining opaque Machine Learning (ML) models is an increasingly relevant problem. Current explanation in AI (XAI) methods suffer several shortcomings, among others an insufficient incorporation of background knowledge, and a lack of abstraction and interactivity with the user. We propose REASONX, an explanation method based on Constraint Logic Programming (CLP). REASONX can provide declarative, interactive explanations for decision trees, which can be the ML models under analysis or global/local surrogate models of any black-box model. Users can express background or common sense knowledge using linear constraints and MILP optimization over features of factual and contrastive instances, and interact with the answer constraints at different levels of abstraction through constraint projection. We present here the architecture of REASONX, which consists of a Python layer, closer to the user, and a CLP layer. REASONX's core execution engine is a Prolog meta-program with declarative semantics in terms of logic theories.

Ensemble of Counterfactual Explainers

In eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), several counterfactual explainers have been proposed, each focusing on some desirable properties of counterfactual instances: minimality, actionability, stability, diversity, plausibility, discriminative power. We propose an ensemble of counterfactual explainers that boosts weak explainers, which provide only a subset of such properties, to a powerful method covering all of them. The ensemble runs weak explainers on a sample of instances and of features, and it combines their results by exploiting a diversity-driven selection function. The method is model-agnostic and, through a wrapping approach based on autoencoders, it is also data-agnostic.