Activations Through Extensions: A Framework To Boost Performance Of Neural Networks

Activation functions are non-linearities in neural networks that allow them to learn complex mapping between inputs and outputs. Typical choices for activation functions are ReLU, Tanh, Sigmoid etc., where the choice generally depends on the application domain. In this work, we propose a framework/strategy that unifies several works on activation functions and theoretically explains the performance benefits of these works. We also propose novel techniques that originate from the framework and allow us to obtain ``extensions'' (i.e. special generalizations of a given neural network) of neural networks through operations on activation functions. We theoretically and empirically show that ``extensions'' of neural networks have performance benefits compared to vanilla neural networks with insignificant space and time complexity costs on standard test functions. We also show the benefits of neural network ``extensions'' in the time-series domain on real-world datasets.

Tiny Time Mixers : Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series

Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

AutoMixer for Improved Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting on Business and IT Observability Data

The efficiency of business processes relies on business key performance indicators (Biz-KPIs), that can be negatively impacted by IT failures. Business and IT Observability (BizITObs) data fuses both Biz-KPIs and IT event channels together as multivariate time series data. Forecasting Biz-KPIs in advance can enhance efficiency and revenue through proactive corrective measures. However, BizITObs data generally exhibit both useful and noisy inter-channel interactions between Biz-KPIs and IT events that need to be effectively decoupled. This leads to suboptimal forecasting performance when existing multivariate forecasting models are employed. To address this, we introduce AutoMixer, a time-series Foundation Model (FM) approach, grounded on the novel technique of channel-compressed pretrain and finetune workflows. AutoMixer leverages an AutoEncoder for channel-compressed pretraining and integrates it with the advanced TSMixer model for multivariate time series forecasting. This fusion greatly enhances the potency of TSMixer for accurate forecasts and also generalizes well across several downstream tasks. Through detailed experiments and dashboard analytics, we show AutoMixer's capability to consistently improve the Biz-KPI's forecasting accuracy (by 11-15\%) which directly translates to actionable business insights.

Test Set Selection using Active Information Acquisition for Predictive Models

In this paper, we consider active information acquisition when the prediction model is meant to be applied on a targeted subset of the population. The goal is to label a pre-specified fraction of customers in the target or test set by iteratively querying for information from the non-target or training set. The number of queries is limited by an overall budget. Arising in the context of two rather disparate applications- banking and medical diagnosis, we pose the active information acquisition problem as a constrained optimization problem. We propose two greedy iterative algorithms for solving the above problem. We conduct experiments with synthetic data and compare results of our proposed algorithms with few other baseline approaches. The experimental results show that our proposed approaches perform better than the baseline schemes.