Spurious Correlations in High Dimensional Regression: The Roles of Regularization, Simplicity Bias and Over-Parameterization

Learning models have been shown to rely on spurious correlations between non-predictive features and the associated labels in the training data, with negative implications on robustness, bias and fairness. In this work, we provide a statistical characterization of this phenomenon for high-dimensional regression, when the data contains a predictive core feature $x$ and a spurious feature $y$. Specifically, we quantify the amount of spurious correlations $C$ learned via linear regression, in terms of the data covariance and the strength $\lambda$ of the ridge regularization. As a consequence, we first capture the simplicity of $y$ through the spectrum of its covariance, and its correlation with $x$ through the Schur complement of the full data covariance. Next, we prove a trade-off between $C$ and the in-distribution test loss $L$, by showing that the value of $\lambda$ that minimizes $L$ lies in an interval where $C$ is increasing. Finally, we investigate the effects of over-parameterization via the random features model, by showing its equivalence to regularized linear regression. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments on Gaussian, Color-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 datasets.

Spectral Estimators for Multi-Index Models: Precise Asymptotics and Optimal Weak Recovery

Multi-index models provide a popular framework to investigate the learnability of functions with low-dimensional structure and, also due to their connections with neural networks, they have been object of recent intensive study. In this paper, we focus on recovering the subspace spanned by the signals via spectral estimators -- a family of methods that are routinely used in practice, often as a warm-start for iterative algorithms. Our main technical contribution is a precise asymptotic characterization of the performance of spectral methods, when sample size and input dimension grow proportionally and the dimension $p$ of the space to recover is fixed. Specifically, we locate the top-$p$ eigenvalues of the spectral matrix and establish the overlaps between the corresponding eigenvectors (which give the spectral estimators) and a basis of the signal subspace. Our analysis unveils a phase transition phenomenon in which, as the sample complexity grows, eigenvalues escape from the bulk of the spectrum and, when that happens, eigenvectors recover directions of the desired subspace. The precise characterization we put forward enables the optimization of the data preprocessing, thus allowing to identify the spectral estimator that requires the minimal sample size for weak recovery.

Neural Collapse Beyond the Unconstrainted Features Model: Landscape, Dynamics, and Generalization in the Mean-Field Regime

Neural Collapse is a phenomenon where the last-layer representations of a well-trained neural network converge to a highly structured geometry. In this paper, we focus on its first (and most basic) property, known as NC1: the within-class variability vanishes. While prior theoretical studies establish the occurrence of NC1 via the data-agnostic unconstrained features model, our work adopts a data-specific perspective, analyzing NC1 in a three-layer neural network, with the first two layers operating in the mean-field regime and followed by a linear layer. In particular, we establish a fundamental connection between NC1 and the loss landscape: we prove that points with small empirical loss and gradient norm (thus, close to being stationary) approximately satisfy NC1, and the closeness to NC1 is controlled by the residual loss and gradient norm. We then show that (i) gradient flow on the mean squared error converges to NC1 solutions with small empirical loss, and (ii) for well-separated data distributions, both NC1 and vanishing test loss are achieved simultaneously. This aligns with the empirical observation that NC1 emerges during training while models attain near-zero test error. Overall, our results demonstrate that NC1 arises from gradient training due to the properties of the loss landscape, and they show the co-occurrence of NC1 and small test error for certain data distributions.

High-dimensional Analysis of Knowledge Distillation: Weak-to-Strong Generalization and Scaling Laws

A growing number of machine learning scenarios rely on knowledge distillation where one uses the output of a surrogate model as labels to supervise the training of a target model. In this work, we provide a sharp characterization of this process for ridgeless, high-dimensional regression, under two settings: (i) model shift, where the surrogate model is arbitrary, and (ii) distribution shift, where the surrogate model is the solution of empirical risk minimization with out-of-distribution data. In both cases, we characterize the precise risk of the target model through non-asymptotic bounds in terms of sample size and data distribution under mild conditions. As a consequence, we identify the form of the optimal surrogate model, which reveals the benefits and limitations of discarding weak features in a data-dependent fashion. In the context of weak-to-strong (W2S) generalization, this has the interpretation that (i) W2S training, with the surrogate as the weak model, can provably outperform training with strong labels under the same data budget, but (ii) it is unable to improve the data scaling law. We validate our results on numerical experiments both on ridgeless regression and on neural network architectures.

Privacy for Free in the Over-Parameterized Regime

Differentially private gradient descent (DP-GD) is a popular algorithm to train deep learning models with provable guarantees on the privacy of the training data. In the last decade, the problem of understanding its performance cost with respect to standard GD has received remarkable attention from the research community, which formally derived upper bounds on the excess population risk $R_{P}$ in different learning settings. However, existing bounds typically degrade with over-parameterization, i.e., as the number of parameters $p$ gets larger than the number of training samples $n$ -- a regime which is ubiquitous in current deep-learning practice. As a result, the lack of theoretical insights leaves practitioners without clear guidance, leading some to reduce the effective number of trainable parameters to improve performance, while others use larger models to achieve better results through scale. In this work, we show that in the popular random features model with quadratic loss, for any sufficiently large $p$, privacy can be obtained for free, i.e., $\left|R_{P} \right| = o(1)$, not only when the privacy parameter $\varepsilon$ has constant order, but also in the strongly private setting $\varepsilon = o(1)$. This challenges the common wisdom that over-parameterization inherently hinders performance in private learning.

Wide Neural Networks Trained with Weight Decay Provably Exhibit Neural Collapse

Deep neural networks (DNNs) at convergence consistently represent the training data in the last layer via a highly symmetric geometric structure referred to as neural collapse. This empirical evidence has spurred a line of theoretical research aimed at proving the emergence of neural collapse, mostly focusing on the unconstrained features model. Here, the features of the penultimate layer are free variables, which makes the model data-agnostic and, hence, puts into question its ability to capture DNN training. Our work addresses the issue, moving away from unconstrained features and studying DNNs that end with at least two linear layers. We first prove generic guarantees on neural collapse that assume (i) low training error and balancedness of the linear layers (for within-class variability collapse), and (ii) bounded conditioning of the features before the linear part (for orthogonality of class-means, as well as their alignment with weight matrices). We then show that such assumptions hold for gradient descent training with weight decay: (i) for networks with a wide first layer, we prove low training error and balancedness, and (ii) for solutions that are either nearly optimal or stable under large learning rates, we additionally prove the bounded conditioning. Taken together, our results are the first to show neural collapse in the end-to-end training of DNNs.

Information limits and Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equations for spiked matrix models with structured noise

We consider a prototypical problem of Bayesian inference for a structured spiked model: a low-rank signal is corrupted by additive noise. While both information-theoretic and algorithmic limits are well understood when the noise is i.i.d. Gaussian, the more realistic case of structured noise still proves to be challenging. To capture the structure while maintaining mathematical tractability, a line of work has focused on rotationally invariant noise. However, existing studies either provide sub-optimal algorithms or they are limited to a special class of noise ensembles. In this paper, we establish the first characterization of the information-theoretic limits for a noise matrix drawn from a general trace ensemble. These limits are then achieved by an efficient algorithm inspired by the theory of adaptive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) equations. Our approach leverages tools from statistical physics (replica method) and random matrix theory (generalized spherical integrals), and it unveils the equivalence between the rotationally invariant model and a surrogate Gaussian model.

Neural Collapse versus Low-rank Bias: Is Deep Neural Collapse Really Optimal?

Deep neural networks (DNNs) exhibit a surprising structure in their final layer known as neural collapse (NC), and a growing body of works has currently investigated the propagation of neural collapse to earlier layers of DNNs -- a phenomenon called deep neural collapse (DNC). However, existing theoretical results are restricted to special cases: linear models, only two layers or binary classification. In contrast, we focus on non-linear models of arbitrary depth in multi-class classification and reveal a surprising qualitative shift. As soon as we go beyond two layers or two classes, DNC stops being optimal for the deep unconstrained features model (DUFM) -- the standard theoretical framework for the analysis of collapse. The main culprit is a low-rank bias of multi-layer regularization schemes: this bias leads to optimal solutions of even lower rank than the neural collapse. We support our theoretical findings with experiments on both DUFM and real data, which show the emergence of the low-rank structure in the solution found by gradient descent.

Matrix Denoising with Doubly Heteroscedastic Noise: Fundamental Limits and Optimal Spectral Methods

We study the matrix denoising problem of estimating the singular vectors of a rank-$1$ signal corrupted by noise with both column and row correlations. Existing works are either unable to pinpoint the exact asymptotic estimation error or, when they do so, the resulting approaches (e.g., based on whitening or singular value shrinkage) remain vastly suboptimal. On top of this, most of the literature has focused on the special case of estimating the left singular vector of the signal when the noise only possesses row correlation (one-sided heteroscedasticity). In contrast, our work establishes the information-theoretic and algorithmic limits of matrix denoising with doubly heteroscedastic noise. We characterize the exact asymptotic minimum mean square error, and design a novel spectral estimator with rigorous optimality guarantees: under a technical condition, it attains positive correlation with the signals whenever information-theoretically possible and, for one-sided heteroscedasticity, it also achieves the Bayes-optimal error. Numerical experiments demonstrate the significant advantage of our theoretically principled method with the state of the art. The proofs draw connections with statistical physics and approximate message passing, departing drastically from standard random matrix theory techniques.

Average gradient outer product as a mechanism for deep neural collapse

Deep Neural Collapse (DNC) refers to the surprisingly rigid structure of the data representations in the final layers of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Though the phenomenon has been measured in a wide variety of settings, its emergence is only partially understood. In this work, we provide substantial evidence that DNC formation occurs primarily through deep feature learning with the average gradient outer product (AGOP). This takes a step further compared to efforts that explain neural collapse via feature-agnostic approaches, such as the unconstrained features model. We proceed by providing evidence that the right singular vectors and values of the weights are responsible for the majority of within-class variability collapse in DNNs. As shown in recent work, this singular structure is highly correlated with that of the AGOP. We then establish experimentally and theoretically that AGOP induces neural collapse in a randomly initialized neural network. In particular, we demonstrate that Deep Recursive Feature Machines, a method originally introduced as an abstraction for AGOP feature learning in convolutional neural networks, exhibits DNC.