Bounded Rationality Equilibrium Learning in Mean Field Games

Mean field games (MFGs) tractably model behavior in large agent populations. The literature on learning MFG equilibria typically focuses on finding Nash equilibria (NE), which assume perfectly rational agents and are hence implausible in many realistic situations. To overcome these limitations, we incorporate bounded rationality into MFGs by leveraging the well-known concept of quantal response equilibria (QRE). Two novel types of MFG QRE enable the modeling of large agent populations where individuals only noisily estimate the true objective. We also introduce a second source of bounded rationality to MFGs by restricting agents' planning horizon. The resulting novel receding horizon (RH) MFGs are combined with QRE and existing approaches to model different aspects of bounded rationality in MFGs. We formally define MFG QRE and RH MFGs and compare them to existing equilibrium concepts such as entropy-regularized NE. Subsequently, we design generalized fixed point iteration and fictitious play algorithms to learn QRE and RH equilibria. After a theoretical analysis, we give different examples to evaluate the capabilities of our learning algorithms and outline practical differences between the equilibrium concepts.

$\textit{GeoHard}$: Towards Measuring Class-wise Hardness through Modelling Class Semantics

Recent advances in measuring hardness-wise properties of data guide language models in sample selection within low-resource scenarios. However, class-specific properties are overlooked for task setup and learning. How will these properties influence model learning and is it generalizable across datasets? To answer this question, this work formally initiates the concept of $\textit{class-wise hardness}$. Experiments across eight natural language understanding (NLU) datasets demonstrate a consistent hardness distribution across learning paradigms, models, and human judgment. Subsequent experiments unveil a notable challenge in measuring such class-wise hardness with instance-level metrics in previous works. To address this, we propose $\textit{GeoHard}$ for class-wise hardness measurement by modeling class geometry in the semantic embedding space. $\textit{GeoHard}$ surpasses instance-level metrics by over 59 percent on $\textit{Pearson}$'s correlation on measuring class-wise hardness. Our analysis theoretically and empirically underscores the generality of $\textit{GeoHard}$ as a fresh perspective on data diagnosis. Additionally, we showcase how understanding class-wise hardness can practically aid in improving task learning.

$\texttt{MixGR}$: Enhancing Retriever Generalization for Scientific Domain through Complementary Granularity

Recent studies show the growing significance of document retrieval in the generation of LLMs, i.e., RAG, within the scientific domain by bridging their knowledge gap. However, dense retrievers often struggle with domain-specific retrieval and complex query-document relationships, particularly when query segments correspond to various parts of a document. To alleviate such prevalent challenges, this paper introduces $\texttt{MixGR}$, which improves dense retrievers' awareness of query-document matching across various levels of granularity in queries and documents using a zero-shot approach. $\texttt{MixGR}$ fuses various metrics based on these granularities to a united score that reflects a comprehensive query-document similarity. Our experiments demonstrate that $\texttt{MixGR}$ outperforms previous document retrieval by 24.7% and 9.8% on nDCG@5 with unsupervised and supervised retrievers, respectively, averaged on queries containing multiple subqueries from five scientific retrieval datasets. Moreover, the efficacy of two downstream scientific question-answering tasks highlights the advantage of $\texttt{MixGR}$to boost the application of LLMs in the scientific domain.

FPGA-Based Neural Thrust Controller for UAVs

The advent of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has improved a variety of fields by providing a versatile, cost-effective and accessible platform for implementing state-of-the-art algorithms. To accomplish a broader range of tasks, there is a growing need for enhanced on-board computing to cope with increasing complexity and dynamic environmental conditions. Recent advances have seen the application of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), particularly in combination with Reinforcement Learning (RL), to improve the adaptability and performance of UAVs, especially in unknown environments. However, the computational requirements of DNNs pose a challenge to the limited computing resources available on many UAVs. This work explores the use of Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) as a viable solution to this challenge, offering flexibility, high performance, energy and time efficiency. We propose a novel hardware board equipped with an Artix-7 FPGA for a popular open-source micro-UAV platform. We successfully validate its functionality by implementing an RL-based low-level controller using real-world experiments.

Negative-Binomial Randomized Gamma Markov Processes for Heterogeneous Overdispersed Count Time Series

Modeling count-valued time series has been receiving increasing attention since count time series naturally arise in physical and social domains. Poisson gamma dynamical systems (PGDSs) are newly-developed methods, which can well capture the expressive latent transition structure and bursty dynamics behind count sequences. In particular, PGDSs demonstrate superior performance in terms of data imputation and prediction, compared with canonical linear dynamical system (LDS) based methods. Despite these advantages, PGDS cannot capture the heterogeneous overdispersed behaviours of the underlying dynamic processes. To mitigate this defect, we propose a negative-binomial-randomized gamma Markov process, which not only significantly improves the predictive performance of the proposed dynamical system, but also facilitates the fast convergence of the inference algorithm. Moreover, we develop methods to estimate both factor-structured and graph-structured transition dynamics, which enable us to infer more explainable latent structure, compared with PGDSs. Finally, we demonstrate the explainable latent structure learned by the proposed method, and show its superior performance in imputing missing data and forecasting future observations, compared with the related models.

Scaling up Dynamic Edge Partition Models via Stochastic Gradient MCMC

The edge partition model (EPM) is a generative model for extracting an overlapping community structure from static graph-structured data. In the EPM, the gamma process (GaP) prior is adopted to infer the appropriate number of latent communities, and each vertex is endowed with a gamma distributed positive memberships vector. Despite having many attractive properties, inference in the EPM is typically performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that prevent it from being applied to massive network data. In this paper, we generalize the EPM to account for dynamic enviroment by representing each vertex with a positive memberships vector constructed using Dirichlet prior specification, and capturing the time-evolving behaviour of vertices via a Dirichlet Markov chain construction. A simple-to-implement Gibbs sampler is proposed to perform posterior computation using Negative- Binomial augmentation technique. For large network data, we propose a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithm for scalable inference in the proposed model. The experimental results show that the novel methods achieve competitive performance in terms of link prediction, while being much faster.

Poisson-Gamma Dynamical Systems with Non-Stationary Transition Dynamics

Bayesian methodologies for handling count-valued time series have gained prominence due to their ability to infer interpretable latent structures and to estimate uncertainties, and thus are especially suitable for dealing with noisy and incomplete count data. Among these Bayesian models, Poisson-Gamma Dynamical Systems (PGDSs) are proven to be effective in capturing the evolving dynamics underlying observed count sequences. However, the state-of-the-art PGDS still falls short in capturing the time-varying transition dynamics that are commonly observed in real-world count time series. To mitigate this limitation, a non-stationary PGDS is proposed to allow the underlying transition matrices to evolve over time, and the evolving transition matrices are modeled by sophisticatedly-designed Dirichlet Markov chains. Leveraging Dirichlet-Multinomial-Beta data augmentation techniques, a fully-conjugate and efficient Gibbs sampler is developed to perform posterior simulation. Experiments show that, in comparison with related models, the proposed non-stationary PGDS achieves improved predictive performance due to its capacity to learn non-stationary dependency structure captured by the time-evolving transition matrices.

Graph Structure Inference with BAM: Introducing the Bilinear Attention Mechanism

In statistics and machine learning, detecting dependencies in datasets is a central challenge. We propose a novel neural network model for supervised graph structure learning, i.e., the process of learning a mapping between observational data and their underlying dependence structure. The model is trained with variably shaped and coupled simulated input data and requires only a single forward pass through the trained network for inference. By leveraging structural equation models and employing randomly generated multivariate Chebyshev polynomials for the simulation of training data, our method demonstrates robust generalizability across both linear and various types of non-linear dependencies. We introduce a novel bilinear attention mechanism (BAM) for explicit processing of dependency information, which operates on the level of covariance matrices of transformed data and respects the geometry of the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices. Empirical evaluation demonstrates the robustness of our method in detecting a wide range of dependencies, excelling in undirected graph estimation and proving competitive in completed partially directed acyclic graph estimation through a novel two-step approach.

Approximate Control for Continuous-Time POMDPs

This work proposes a decision-making framework for partially observable systems in continuous time with discrete state and action spaces. As optimal decision-making becomes intractable for large state spaces we employ approximation methods for the filtering and the control problem that scale well with an increasing number of states. Specifically, we approximate the high-dimensional filtering distribution by projecting it onto a parametric family of distributions, and integrate it into a control heuristic based on the fully observable system to obtain a scalable policy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several partially observed systems, including queueing systems and chemical reaction networks.

A Modular Aerial System Based on Homogeneous Quadrotors with Fault-Tolerant Control

The standard quadrotor is one of the most popular and widely used aerial vehicle of recent decades, offering great maneuverability with mechanical simplicity. However, the under-actuation characteristic limits its applications, especially when it comes to generating desired wrench with six degrees of freedom (DOF). Therefore, existing work often compromises between mechanical complexity and the controllable DOF of the aerial system. To take advantage of the mechanical simplicity of a standard quadrotor, we propose a modular aerial system, IdentiQuad, that combines only homogeneous quadrotor-based modules. Each IdentiQuad can be operated alone like a standard quadrotor, but at the same time allows task-specific assembly, increasing the controllable DOF of the system. Each module is interchangeable within its assembly. We also propose a general controller for different configurations of assemblies, capable of tolerating rotor failures and balancing the energy consumption of each module. The functionality and robustness of the system and its controller are validated using physics-based simulations for different assembly configurations.