Confidence Improves Self-Consistency in LLMs

Self-consistency decoding enhances LLMs' performance on reasoning tasks by sampling diverse reasoning paths and selecting the most frequent answer. However, it is computationally expensive, as sampling many of these (lengthy) paths is required to increase the chances that the correct answer emerges as the most frequent one. To address this, we introduce Confidence-Informed Self-Consistency (CISC). CISC performs a weighted majority vote based on confidence scores obtained directly from the model. By prioritizing high-confidence paths, it can identify the correct answer with a significantly smaller sample size. When tested on nine models and four datasets, CISC outperforms self-consistency in nearly all configurations, reducing the required number of reasoning paths by over 40% on average. In addition, we introduce the notion of within-question confidence evaluation, after showing that standard evaluation methods are poor predictors of success in distinguishing correct and incorrect answers to the same question. In fact, the most calibrated confidence method proved to be the least effective for CISC. Lastly, beyond these practical implications, our results and analyses show that LLMs can effectively judge the correctness of their own outputs, contributing to the ongoing debate on this topic.

SAUCE: Synchronous and Asynchronous User-Customizable Environment for Multi-Agent LLM Interaction

Many human interactions, such as political debates, are carried out in group settings, where there are arbitrarily many participants, each with different views and agendas. To explore such complex social settings, we present SAUCE: a customizable Python platform, allowing researchers to plug-and-play various LLMs participating in discussions on any topic chosen by the user. Our platform takes care of instantiating the models, scheduling their responses, managing the discussion history, and producing a comprehensive output log, all customizable through configuration files, requiring little to no coding skills. A novel feature of SAUCE is our asynchronous communication feature, where models decide when to speak in addition to what to say, thus modeling an important facet of human communication. We show SAUCE's attractiveness in two initial experiments, and invite the community to use it in simulating various group simulations.

Looking Beyond The Top-1: Transformers Determine Top Tokens In Order

Understanding the inner workings of Transformers is crucial for achieving more accurate and efficient predictions. In this work, we analyze the computation performed by Transformers in the layers after the top-1 prediction has become fixed, which has been previously referred to as the "saturation event". We expand the concept of saturation events for top-k tokens, demonstrating that similar saturation events occur across language, vision, and speech models. We find that these saturation events happen in order of the corresponding tokens' ranking, i.e., the model first decides on the top ranking token, then the second highest ranking token, and so on. This phenomenon seems intrinsic to the Transformer architecture, occurring across different architectural variants (decoder-only, encoder-only, and to a lesser extent full-Transformer), and even in untrained Transformers. We propose an underlying mechanism of task transition for this sequential saturation, where task k corresponds to predicting the k-th most probable token, and the saturation events are in fact discrete transitions between the tasks. In support of this we show that it is possible to predict the current task from hidden layer embedding. Furthermore, using an intervention method we demonstrate that we can cause the model to switch from one task to the next. Finally, leveraging our findings, we introduce a novel token-level early-exit strategy, which surpasses existing methods in balancing performance and efficiency.

Distributional reasoning in LLMs: Parallel reasoning processes in multi-hop reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) have shown an impressive ability to perform tasks believed to require thought processes. When the model does not document an explicit thought process, it becomes difficult to understand the processes occurring within its hidden layers and to determine if these processes can be referred to as reasoning. We introduce a novel and interpretable analysis of internal multi-hop reasoning processes in LLMs. We demonstrate that the prediction process for compositional reasoning questions can be modeled using a simple linear transformation between two semantic category spaces. We show that during inference, the middle layers of the network generate highly interpretable embeddings that represent a set of potential intermediate answers for the multi-hop question. We use statistical analyses to show that a corresponding subset of tokens is activated in the model's output, implying the existence of parallel reasoning paths. These observations hold true even when the model lacks the necessary knowledge to solve the task. Our findings can help uncover the strategies that LLMs use to solve reasoning tasks, offering insights into the types of thought processes that can emerge from artificial intelligence. Finally, we also discuss the implication of cognitive modeling of these results.

Can LLMs Learn Macroeconomic Narratives from Social Media?

This study empirically tests the $\textit{Narrative Economics}$ hypothesis, which posits that narratives (ideas that are spread virally and affect public beliefs) can influence economic fluctuations. We introduce two curated datasets containing posts from X (formerly Twitter) which capture economy-related narratives (Data will be shared upon paper acceptance). Employing Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods, we extract and summarize narratives from the tweets. We test their predictive power for $\textit{macroeconomic}$ forecasting by incorporating the tweets' or the extracted narratives' representations in downstream financial prediction tasks. Our work highlights the challenges in improving macroeconomic models with narrative data, paving the way for the research community to realistically address this important challenge. From a scientific perspective, our investigation offers valuable insights and NLP tools for narrative extraction and summarization using Large Language Models (LLMs), contributing to future research on the role of narratives in economics.

A Nurse is Blue and Elephant is Rugby: Cross Domain Alignment in Large Language Models Reveal Human-like Patterns

Cross-domain alignment refers to the task of mapping a concept from one domain to another. For example, ``If a \textit{doctor} were a \textit{color}, what color would it be?''. This seemingly peculiar task is designed to investigate how people represent concrete and abstract concepts through their mappings between categories and their reasoning processes over those mappings. In this paper, we adapt this task from cognitive science to evaluate the conceptualization and reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) through a behavioral study. We examine several LLMs by prompting them with a cross-domain mapping task and analyzing their responses at both the population and individual levels. Additionally, we assess the models' ability to reason about their predictions by analyzing and categorizing their explanations for these mappings. The results reveal several similarities between humans' and models' mappings and explanations, suggesting that models represent concepts similarly to humans. This similarity is evident not only in the model representation but also in their behavior. Furthermore, the models mostly provide valid explanations and deploy reasoning paths that are similar to those of humans.

Do Zombies Understand? A Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Exploration of Machine Cognition

Recent advances in LLMs have sparked a debate on whether they understand text. In this position paper, we argue that opponents in this debate hold different definitions for understanding, and particularly differ in their view on the role of consciousness. To substantiate this claim, we propose a thought experiment involving an open-source chatbot $Z$ which excels on every possible benchmark, seemingly without subjective experience. We ask whether $Z$ is capable of understanding, and show that different schools of thought within seminal AI research seem to answer this question differently, uncovering their terminological disagreement. Moving forward, we propose two distinct working definitions for understanding which explicitly acknowledge the question of consciousness, and draw connections with a rich literature in philosophy, psychology and neuroscience.

Systematic Biases in LLM Simulations of Debates

Recent advancements in natural language processing, especially the emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs), have opened exciting possibilities for constructing computational simulations designed to replicate human behavior accurately. However, LLMs are complex statistical learners without straightforward deductive rules, making them prone to unexpected behaviors. In this study, we highlight the limitations of LLMs in simulating human interactions, particularly focusing on LLMs' ability to simulate political debates. Our findings indicate a tendency for LLM agents to conform to the model's inherent social biases despite being directed to debate from certain political perspectives. This tendency results in behavioral patterns that seem to deviate from well-established social dynamics among humans. We reinforce these observations using an automatic self-fine-tuning method, which enables us to manipulate the biases within the LLM and demonstrate that agents subsequently align with the altered biases. These results underscore the need for further research to develop methods that help agents overcome these biases, a critical step toward creating more realistic simulations.

Decoding Stumpers: Large Language Models vs. Human Problem-Solvers

This paper investigates the problem-solving capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) by evaluating their performance on stumpers, unique single-step intuition problems that pose challenges for human solvers but are easily verifiable. We compare the performance of four state-of-the-art LLMs (Davinci-2, Davinci-3, GPT-3.5-Turbo, GPT-4) to human participants. Our findings reveal that the new-generation LLMs excel in solving stumpers and surpass human performance. However, humans exhibit superior skills in verifying solutions to the same problems. This research enhances our understanding of LLMs' cognitive abilities and provides insights for enhancing their problem-solving potential across various domains.

The Temporal Structure of Language Processing in the Human Brain Corresponds to The Layered Hierarchy of Deep Language Models

Deep Language Models (DLMs) provide a novel computational paradigm for understanding the mechanisms of natural language processing in the human brain. Unlike traditional psycholinguistic models, DLMs use layered sequences of continuous numerical vectors to represent words and context, allowing a plethora of emerging applications such as human-like text generation. In this paper we show evidence that the layered hierarchy of DLMs may be used to model the temporal dynamics of language comprehension in the brain by demonstrating a strong correlation between DLM layer depth and the time at which layers are most predictive of the human brain. Our ability to temporally resolve individual layers benefits from our use of electrocorticography (ECoG) data, which has a much higher temporal resolution than noninvasive methods like fMRI. Using ECoG, we record neural activity from participants listening to a 30-minute narrative while also feeding the same narrative to a high-performing DLM (GPT2-XL). We then extract contextual embeddings from the different layers of the DLM and use linear encoding models to predict neural activity. We first focus on the Inferior Frontal Gyrus (IFG, or Broca's area) and then extend our model to track the increasing temporal receptive window along the linguistic processing hierarchy from auditory to syntactic and semantic areas. Our results reveal a connection between human language processing and DLMs, with the DLM's layer-by-layer accumulation of contextual information mirroring the timing of neural activity in high-order language areas.