Genomic Next-Token Predictors are In-Context Learners

In-context learning (ICL) -- the capacity of a model to infer and apply abstract patterns from examples provided within its input -- has been extensively studied in large language models trained for next-token prediction on human text. In fact, prior work often attributes this emergent behavior to distinctive statistical properties in human language. This raises a fundamental question: can ICL arise organically in other sequence domains purely through large-scale predictive training? To explore this, we turn to genomic sequences, an alternative symbolic domain rich in statistical structure. Specifically, we study the Evo2 genomic model, trained predominantly on next-nucleotide (A/T/C/G) prediction, at a scale comparable to mid-sized LLMs. We develop a controlled experimental framework comprising symbolic reasoning tasks instantiated in both linguistic and genomic forms, enabling direct comparison of ICL across genomic and linguistic models. Our results show that genomic models, like their linguistic counterparts, exhibit log-linear gains in pattern induction as the number of in-context demonstrations increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first evidence of organically emergent ICL in genomic sequences, supporting the hypothesis that ICL arises as a consequence of large-scale predictive modeling over rich data. These findings extend emergent meta-learning beyond language, pointing toward a unified, modality-agnostic view of in-context learning.

OIDA-QA: A Multimodal Benchmark for Analyzing the Opioid Industry Documents Archive

The opioid crisis represents a significant moment in public health that reveals systemic shortcomings across regulatory systems, healthcare practices, corporate governance, and public policy. Analyzing how these interconnected systems simultaneously failed to protect public health requires innovative analytic approaches for exploring the vast amounts of data and documents disclosed in the UCSF-JHU Opioid Industry Documents Archive (OIDA). The complexity, multimodal nature, and specialized characteristics of these healthcare-related legal and corporate documents necessitate more advanced methods and models tailored to specific data types and detailed annotations, ensuring the precision and professionalism in the analysis. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by organizing the original dataset according to document attributes and constructing a benchmark with 400k training documents and 10k for testing. From each document, we extract rich multimodal information-including textual content, visual elements, and layout structures-to capture a comprehensive range of features. Using multiple AI models, we then generate a large-scale dataset comprising 360k training QA pairs and 10k testing QA pairs. Building on this foundation, we develop domain-specific multimodal Large Language Models (LLMs) and explore the impact of multimodal inputs on task performance. To further enhance response accuracy, we incorporate historical QA pairs as contextual grounding for answering current queries. Additionally, we incorporate page references within the answers and introduce an importance-based page classifier, further improving the precision and relevance of the information provided. Preliminary results indicate the improvements with our AI assistant in document information extraction and question-answering tasks. The dataset is available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/opioidarchive/oida-qa

Analyzing Political Text at Scale with Online Tensor LDA

This paper proposes a topic modeling method that scales linearly to billions of documents. We make three core contributions: i) we present a topic modeling method, Tensor Latent Dirichlet Allocation (TLDA), that has identifiable and recoverable parameter guarantees and sample complexity guarantees for large data; ii) we show that this method is computationally and memory efficient (achieving speeds over 3-4x those of prior parallelized Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) methods), and that it scales linearly to text datasets with over a billion documents; iii) we provide an open-source, GPU-based implementation, of this method. This scaling enables previously prohibitive analyses, and we perform two real-world, large-scale new studies of interest to political scientists: we provide the first thorough analysis of the evolution of the #MeToo movement through the lens of over two years of Twitter conversation and a detailed study of social media conversations about election fraud in the 2020 presidential election. Thus this method provides social scientists with the ability to study very large corpora at scale and to answer important theoretically-relevant questions about salient issues in near real-time.

Group-Sensitive Offline Contextual Bandits

Offline contextual bandits allow one to learn policies from historical/offline data without requiring online interaction. However, offline policy optimization that maximizes overall expected rewards can unintentionally amplify the reward disparities across groups. As a result, some groups might benefit more than others from the learned policy, raising concerns about fairness, especially when the resources are limited. In this paper, we study a group-sensitive fairness constraint in offline contextual bandits, reducing group-wise reward disparities that may arise during policy learning. We tackle the following common-parity requirements: the reward disparity is constrained within some user-defined threshold or the reward disparity should be minimized during policy optimization. We propose a constrained offline policy optimization framework by introducing group-wise reward disparity constraints into an off-policy gradient-based optimization procedure. To improve the estimation of the group-wise reward disparity during training, we employ a doubly robust estimator and further provide a convergence guarantee for policy optimization. Empirical results in synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method effectively reduces reward disparities while maintaining competitive overall performance.

IA2: Alignment with ICL Activations Improves Supervised Fine-Tuning

Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) is used to specialize model behavior by training weights to produce intended target responses for queries. In contrast, In-Context Learning (ICL) adapts models during inference with instructions or demonstrations in the prompt. ICL can offer better generalizability and more calibrated responses compared to SFT in data scarce settings, at the cost of more inference compute. In this work, we ask the question: Can ICL's internal computations be used to improve the qualities of SFT? We first show that ICL and SFT produce distinct activation patterns, indicating that the two methods achieve adaptation through different functional mechanisms. Motivated by this observation and to use ICL's rich functionality, we introduce ICL Activation Alignment (IA2), a self-distillation technique which aims to replicate ICL's activation patterns in SFT models and incentivizes ICL-like internal reasoning. Performing IA2 as a priming step before SFT significantly improves the accuracy and calibration of model outputs, as shown by our extensive empirical results on 12 popular benchmarks and 2 model families. This finding is not only practically useful, but also offers a conceptual window into the inner mechanics of model adaptation.

ODD: Overlap-aware Estimation of Model Performance under Distribution Shift

Reliable and accurate estimation of the error of an ML model in unseen test domains is an important problem for safe intelligent systems. Prior work uses disagreement discrepancy (DIS^2) to derive practical error bounds under distribution shifts. It optimizes for a maximally disagreeing classifier on the target domain to bound the error of a given source classifier. Although this approach offers a reliable and competitively accurate estimate of the target error, we identify a problem in this approach which causes the disagreement discrepancy objective to compete in the overlapping region between source and target domains. With an intuitive assumption that the target disagreement should be no more than the source disagreement in the overlapping region due to high enough support, we devise Overlap-aware Disagreement Discrepancy (ODD). Maximizing ODD only requires disagreement in the non-overlapping target domain, removing the competition. Our ODD-based bound uses domain-classifiers to estimate domain-overlap and better predicts target performance than DIS^2. We conduct experiments on a wide array of benchmarks to show that our method improves the overall performance-estimation error while remaining valid and reliable. Our code and results are available on GitHub.

MOBODY: Model Based Off-Dynamics Offline Reinforcement Learning

We study the off-dynamics offline reinforcement learning problem, where the goal is to learn a policy from offline datasets collected from source and target domains with mismatched transition. Existing off-dynamics offline RL methods typically either filter source transitions that resemble those of the target domain or apply reward augmentation to source data, both constrained by the limited transitions available from the target domain. As a result, the learned policy is unable to explore target domain beyond the offline datasets. We propose MOBODY, a Model-Based Off-Dynamics offline RL algorithm that addresses this limitation by enabling exploration of the target domain via learned dynamics. MOBODY generates new synthetic transitions in the target domain through model rollouts, which are used as data augmentation during offline policy learning. Unlike existing model-based methods that learn dynamics from a single domain, MOBODY tackles the challenge of mismatched dynamics by leveraging both source and target datasets. Directly merging these datasets can bias the learned model toward source dynamics. Instead, MOBODY learns target dynamics by discovering a shared latent representation of states and transitions across domains through representation learning. To stabilize training, MOBODY incorporates a behavior cloning loss that regularizes the policy. Specifically, we introduce a Q-weighted behavior cloning loss that regularizes the policy toward actions with high target-domain Q-values, rather than uniformly imitating all actions in the dataset. These Q-values are learned from an enhanced target dataset composed of offline target data, augmented source data, and rollout data from the learned target dynamics. We evaluate MOBODY on MuJoCo benchmarks and show that it significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, with especially pronounced improvements in challenging scenarios.

Improving Coverage in Combined Prediction Sets with Weighted p-values

Conformal prediction quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by augmenting point predictions with valid prediction sets, assuming exchangeability. For complex scenarios involving multiple trials, models, or data sources, conformal prediction sets can be aggregated to create a prediction set that captures the overall uncertainty, often improving precision. However, aggregating multiple prediction sets with individual $1-\alpha$ coverage inevitably weakens the overall guarantee, typically resulting in $1-2\alpha$ worst-case coverage. In this work, we propose a framework for the weighted aggregation of prediction sets, where weights are assigned to each prediction set based on their contribution. Our framework offers flexible control over how the sets are aggregated, achieving tighter coverage bounds that interpolate between the $1-2\alpha$ guarantee of the combined models and the $1-\alpha$ guarantee of an individual model depending on the distribution of weights. We extend our framework to data-dependent weights, and we derive a general procedure for data-dependent weight aggregation that maintains finite-sample validity. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods through experiments on synthetic and real data in the mixture-of-experts setting, and we show that aggregation with data-dependent weights provides a form of adaptive coverage.

WATCH: Adaptive Monitoring for AI Deployments via Weighted-Conformal Martingales

Responsibly deploying artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) systems in high-stakes settings arguably requires not only proof of system reliability, but moreover continual, post-deployment monitoring to quickly detect and address any unsafe behavior. Statistical methods for nonparametric change-point detection -- especially the tools of conformal test martingales (CTMs) and anytime-valid inference -- offer promising approaches to this monitoring task. However, existing methods are restricted to monitoring limited hypothesis classes or ``alarm criteria'' (such as data shifts that violate certain exchangeability assumptions), do not allow for online adaptation in response to shifts, and/or do not enable root-cause analysis of any degradation. In this paper, we expand the scope of these monitoring methods by proposing a weighted generalization of conformal test martingales (WCTMs), which lay a theoretical foundation for online monitoring for any unexpected changepoints in the data distribution while controlling false-alarms. For practical applications, we propose specific WCTM algorithms that adapt online to mild covariate shifts (in the marginal input distribution) while quickly detecting and diagnosing more severe shifts, such as concept shifts (in the conditional label distribution) or extreme (out-of-support) covariate shifts that cannot be easily adapted to. On real-world datasets, we demonstrate improved performance relative to state-of-the-art baselines.

WATCH: Weighted Adaptive Testing for Changepoint Hypotheses via Weighted-Conformal Martingales

Responsibly deploying artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning (ML) systems in high-stakes settings arguably requires not only proof of system reliability, but moreover continual, post-deployment monitoring to quickly detect and address any unsafe behavior. Statistical methods for nonparametric change-point detection -- especially the tools of conformal test martingales (CTMs) and anytime-valid inference -- offer promising approaches to this monitoring task. However, existing methods are restricted to monitoring limited hypothesis classes or ``alarm criteria,'' such as data shifts that violate certain exchangeability assumptions, or do not allow for online adaptation in response to shifts. In this paper, we expand the scope of these monitoring methods by proposing a weighted generalization of conformal test martingales (WCTMs), which lay a theoretical foundation for online monitoring for any unexpected changepoints in the data distribution while controlling false-alarms. For practical applications, we propose specific WCTM algorithms that accommodate online adaptation to mild covariate shifts (in the marginal input distribution) while raising alarms in response to more severe shifts, such as concept shifts (in the conditional label distribution) or extreme (out-of-support) covariate shifts that cannot be easily adapted to. On real-world datasets, we demonstrate improved performance relative to state-of-the-art baselines.