Neural Operators Can Play Dynamic Stackelberg Games

Dynamic Stackelberg games are a broad class of two-player games in which the leader acts first, and the follower chooses a response strategy to the leader's strategy. Unfortunately, only stylized Stackelberg games are explicitly solvable since the follower's best-response operator (as a function of the control of the leader) is typically analytically intractable. This paper addresses this issue by showing that the \textit{follower's best-response operator} can be approximately implemented by an \textit{attention-based neural operator}, uniformly on compact subsets of adapted open-loop controls for the leader. We further show that the value of the Stackelberg game where the follower uses the approximate best-response operator approximates the value of the original Stackelberg game. Our main result is obtained using our universal approximation theorem for attention-based neural operators between spaces of square-integrable adapted stochastic processes, as well as stability results for a general class of Stackelberg games.

Scalable Message Passing Neural Networks: No Need for Attention in Large Graph Representation Learning

We propose Scalable Message Passing Neural Networks (SMPNNs) and demonstrate that, by integrating standard convolutional message passing into a Pre-Layer Normalization Transformer-style block instead of attention, we can produce high-performing deep message-passing-based Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). This modification yields results competitive with the state-of-the-art in large graph transductive learning, particularly outperforming the best Graph Transformers in the literature, without requiring the otherwise computationally and memory-expensive attention mechanism. Our architecture not only scales to large graphs but also makes it possible to construct deep message-passing networks, unlike simple GNNs, which have traditionally been constrained to shallow architectures due to oversmoothing. Moreover, we provide a new theoretical analysis of oversmoothing based on universal approximation which we use to motivate SMPNNs. We show that in the context of graph convolutions, residual connections are necessary for maintaining the universal approximation properties of downstream learners and that removing them can lead to a loss of universality.

A Comprehensive Analysis on the Learning Curve in Kernel Ridge Regression

This paper conducts a comprehensive study of the learning curves of kernel ridge regression (KRR) under minimal assumptions. Our contributions are three-fold: 1) we analyze the role of key properties of the kernel, such as its spectral eigen-decay, the characteristics of the eigenfunctions, and the smoothness of the kernel; 2) we demonstrate the validity of the Gaussian Equivalent Property (GEP), which states that the generalization performance of KRR remains the same when the whitened features are replaced by standard Gaussian vectors, thereby shedding light on the success of previous analyzes under the Gaussian Design Assumption; 3) we derive novel bounds that improve over existing bounds across a broad range of setting such as (in)dependent feature vectors and various combinations of eigen-decay rates in the over/underparameterized regimes.

Simultaneously Solving FBSDEs with Neural Operators of Logarithmic Depth, Constant Width, and Sub-Linear Rank

Forward-backwards stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) are central in optimal control, game theory, economics, and mathematical finance. Unfortunately, the available FBSDE solvers operate on \textit{individual} FBSDEs, meaning that they cannot provide a computationally feasible strategy for solving large families of FBSDEs as these solvers must be re-run several times. \textit{Neural operators} (NOs) offer an alternative approach for \textit{simultaneously solving} large families of FBSDEs by directly approximating the solution operator mapping \textit{inputs:} terminal conditions and dynamics of the backwards process to \textit{outputs:} solutions to the associated FBSDE. Though universal approximation theorems (UATs) guarantee the existence of such NOs, these NOs are unrealistically large. We confirm that ``small'' NOs can uniformly approximate the solution operator to structured families of FBSDEs with random terminal time, uniformly on suitable compact sets determined by Sobolev norms, to any prescribed error $\varepsilon>0$ using a depth of $\mathcal{O}(\log(1/\varepsilon))$, a width of $\mathcal{O}(1)$, and a sub-linear rank; i.e. $\mathcal{O}(1/\varepsilon^r)$ for some $r<1$. This result is rooted in our second main contribution, which shows that convolutional NOs of similar depth, width, and rank can approximate the solution operator to a broad class of Elliptic PDEs. A key insight here is that the convolutional layers of our NO can efficiently encode the Green's function associated to the Elliptic PDEs linked to our FBSDEs. A byproduct of our analysis is the first theoretical justification for the benefit of lifting channels in NOs: they exponentially decelerate the growth rate of the NO's rank.

Inverse Entropic Optimal Transport Solves Semi-supervised Learning via Data Likelihood Maximization

Learning conditional distributions $\pi^*(\cdot|x)$ is a central problem in machine learning, which is typically approached via supervised methods with paired data $(x,y) \sim \pi^*$. However, acquiring paired data samples is often challenging, especially in problems such as domain translation. This necessitates the development of $\textit{semi-supervised}$ models that utilize both limited paired data and additional unpaired i.i.d. samples $x \sim \pi^*_x$ and $y \sim \pi^*_y$ from the marginal distributions. The usage of such combined data is complex and often relies on heuristic approaches. To tackle this issue, we propose a new learning paradigm that integrates both paired and unpaired data $\textbf{seamlessly}$ through the data likelihood maximization techniques. We demonstrate that our approach also connects intriguingly with inverse entropic optimal transport (OT). This finding allows us to apply recent advances in computational OT to establish a $\textbf{light}$ learning algorithm to get $\pi^*(\cdot|x)$. Furthermore, we demonstrate through empirical tests that our method effectively learns conditional distributions using paired and unpaired data simultaneously.

Neural Spacetimes for DAG Representation Learning

We propose a class of trainable deep learning-based geometries called Neural Spacetimes (NSTs), which can universally represent nodes in weighted directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) as events in a spacetime manifold. While most works in the literature focus on undirected graph representation learning or causality embedding separately, our differentiable geometry can encode both graph edge weights in its spatial dimensions and causality in the form of edge directionality in its temporal dimensions. We use a product manifold that combines a quasi-metric (for space) and a partial order (for time). NSTs are implemented as three neural networks trained in an end-to-end manner: an embedding network, which learns to optimize the location of nodes as events in the spacetime manifold, and two other networks that optimize the space and time geometries in parallel, which we call a neural (quasi-)metric and a neural partial order, respectively. The latter two networks leverage recent ideas at the intersection of fractal geometry and deep learning to shape the geometry of the representation space in a data-driven fashion, unlike other works in the literature that use fixed spacetime manifolds such as Minkowski space or De Sitter space to embed DAGs. Our main theoretical guarantee is a universal embedding theorem, showing that any $k$-point DAG can be embedded into an NST with $1+\mathcal{O}(\log(k))$ distortion while exactly preserving its causal structure. The total number of parameters defining the NST is sub-cubic in $k$ and linear in the width of the DAG. If the DAG has a planar Hasse diagram, this is improved to $\mathcal{O}(\log(k)) + 2)$ spatial and 2 temporal dimensions. We validate our framework computationally with synthetic weighted DAGs and real-world network embeddings; in both cases, the NSTs achieve lower embedding distortions than their counterparts using fixed spacetime geometries.

Filtered not Mixed: Stochastic Filtering-Based Online Gating for Mixture of Large Language Models

We propose MoE-F -- a formalised mechanism for combining $N$ pre-trained expert Large Language Models (LLMs) in online time-series prediction tasks by adaptively forecasting the best weighting of LLM predictions at every time step. Our mechanism leverages the conditional information in each expert's running performance to forecast the best combination of LLMs for predicting the time series in its next step. Diverging from static (learned) Mixture of Experts (MoE) methods, MoE-F employs time-adaptive stochastic filtering techniques to combine experts. By framing the expert selection problem as a finite state-space, continuous-time Hidden Markov model (HMM), we can leverage the Wohman-Shiryaev filter. Our approach first constructs $N$ parallel filters corresponding to each of the $N$ individual LLMs. Each filter proposes its best combination of LLMs, given the information that they have access to. Subsequently, the $N$ filter outputs are aggregated to optimize a lower bound for the loss of the aggregated LLMs, which can be optimized in closed-form, thus generating our ensemble predictor. Our contributions here are: (I) the MoE-F algorithm -- deployable as a plug-and-play filtering harness, (II) theoretical optimality guarantees of the proposed filtering-based gating algorithm, and (III) empirical evaluation and ablative results using state of the art foundational and MoE LLMs on a real-world Financial Market Movement task where MoE-F attains a remarkable 17% absolute and 48.5% relative F1 measure improvement over the next best performing individual LLM expert.

Low-dimensional approximations of the conditional law of Volterra processes: a non-positive curvature approach

Predicting the conditional evolution of Volterra processes with stochastic volatility is a crucial challenge in mathematical finance. While deep neural network models offer promise in approximating the conditional law of such processes, their effectiveness is hindered by the curse of dimensionality caused by the infinite dimensionality and non-smooth nature of these problems. To address this, we propose a two-step solution. Firstly, we develop a stable dimension reduction technique, projecting the law of a reasonably broad class of Volterra process onto a low-dimensional statistical manifold of non-positive sectional curvature. Next, we introduce a sequentially deep learning model tailored to the manifold's geometry, which we show can approximate the projected conditional law of the Volterra process. Our model leverages an auxiliary hypernetwork to dynamically update its internal parameters, allowing it to encode non-stationary dynamics of the Volterra process, and it can be interpreted as a gating mechanism in a mixture of expert models where each expert is specialized at a specific point in time. Our hypernetwork further allows us to achieve approximation rates that would seemingly only be possible with very large networks.

Reality Only Happens Once: Single-Path Generalization Bounds for Transformers

One of the inherent challenges in deploying transformers on time series is that \emph{reality only happens once}; namely, one typically only has access to a single trajectory of the data-generating process comprised of non-i.i.d. observations. We derive non-asymptotic statistical guarantees in this setting through bounds on the \textit{generalization} of a transformer network at a future-time $t$, given that it has been trained using $N\le t$ observations from a single perturbed trajectory of a Markov process. Under the assumption that the Markov process satisfies a log-Sobolev inequality, we obtain a generalization bound which effectively converges at the rate of ${O}(1/\sqrt{N})$. Our bound depends explicitly on the activation function ($\operatorname{Swish}$, $\operatorname{GeLU}$, or $\tanh$ are considered), the number of self-attention heads, depth, width, and norm-bounds defining the transformer architecture. Our bound consists of three components: (I) The first quantifies the gap between the stationary distribution of the data-generating Markov process and its distribution at time $t$, this term converges exponentially to $0$. (II) The next term encodes the complexity of the transformer model and, given enough time, eventually converges to $0$ at the rate ${O}(\log(N)^r/\sqrt{N})$ for any $r>0$. (III) The third term guarantees that the bound holds with probability at least $1$-$\delta$, and converges at a rate of ${O}(\sqrt{\log(1/\delta)}/\sqrt{N})$.

Mixture of Experts Soften the Curse of Dimensionality in Operator Learning

In this paper, we construct a mixture of neural operators (MoNOs) between function spaces whose complexity is distributed over a network of expert neural operators (NOs), with each NO satisfying parameter scaling restrictions. Our main result is a \textit{distributed} universal approximation theorem guaranteeing that any Lipschitz non-linear operator between $L^2([0,1]^d)$ spaces can be approximated uniformly over the Sobolev unit ball therein, to any given $\varepsilon>0$ accuracy, by an MoNO while satisfying the constraint that: each expert NO has a depth, width, and rank of $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-1})$. Naturally, our result implies that the required number of experts must be large, however, each NO is guaranteed to be small enough to be loadable into the active memory of most computers for reasonable accuracies $\varepsilon$. During our analysis, we also obtain new quantitative expression rates for classical NOs approximating uniformly continuous non-linear operators uniformly on compact subsets of $L^2([0,1]^d)$.