Semantic Density: Uncertainty Quantification in Semantic Space for Large Language Models

With the widespread application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to various domains, concerns regarding the trustworthiness of LLMs in safety-critical scenarios have been raised, due to their unpredictable tendency to hallucinate and generate misinformation. Existing LLMs do not have an inherent functionality to provide the users with an uncertainty metric for each response it generates, making it difficult to evaluate trustworthiness. Although a number of works aim to develop uncertainty quantification methods for LLMs, they have fundamental limitations, such as being restricted to classification tasks, requiring additional training and data, considering only lexical instead of semantic information, and being prompt-wise but not response-wise. A new framework is proposed in this paper to address these issues. Semantic density extracts uncertainty information for each response from a probability distribution perspective in semantic space. It has no restriction on task types and is "off-the-shelf" for new models and tasks. Experiments on seven state-of-the-art LLMs, including the latest Llama 3 and Mixtral-8x22B models, on four free-form question-answering benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance and robustness of semantic density compared to prior approaches.

Shortest Edit Path Crossover: A Theory-driven Solution to the Permutation Problem in Evolutionary Neural Architecture Search

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have gained attention recently due to their success in neural architecture search (NAS). However, whereas traditional EAs draw much power from crossover operations, most evolutionary NAS methods deploy only mutation operators. The main reason is the permutation problem: The mapping between genotype and phenotype in traditional graph representations is many-to-one, leading to a disruptive effect of standard crossover. This work conducts the first theoretical analysis of the behaviors of crossover and mutation in the NAS context, and proposes a new crossover operator based on the shortest edit path (SEP) in graph space. The SEP crossover is shown to overcome the permutation problem, and as a result, offspring generated by the SEP crossover is theoretically proved to have a better expected improvement in terms of graph edit distance to global optimum, compared to mutation and standard crossover. Experiments further show that the SEP crossover significantly outperforms mutation and standard crossover on three state-of-the-art NAS benchmarks. The SEP crossover therefore allows taking full advantage of evolution in NAS, and potentially other similar design problems as well.

BigDL 2.0: Seamless Scaling of AI Pipelines from Laptops to Distributed Cluster

Most AI projects start with a Python notebook running on a single laptop; however, one usually needs to go through a mountain of pains to scale it to handle larger dataset (for both experimentation and production deployment). These usually entail many manual and error-prone steps for the data scientists to fully take advantage of the available hardware resources (e.g., SIMD instructions, multi-processing, quantization, memory allocation optimization, data partitioning, distributed computing, etc.). To address this challenge, we have open sourced BigDL 2.0 at https://github.com/intel-analytics/BigDL/ under Apache 2.0 license (combining the original BigDL and Analytics Zoo projects); using BigDL 2.0, users can simply build conventional Python notebooks on their laptops (with possible AutoML support), which can then be transparently accelerated on a single node (with up-to 9.6x speedup in our experiments), and seamlessly scaled out to a large cluster (across several hundreds servers in real-world use cases). BigDL 2.0 has already been adopted by many real-world users (such as Mastercard, Burger King, Inspur, etc.) in production.

Simple Genetic Operators are Universal Approximators of Probability Distributions (and other Advantages of Expressive Encodings)

This paper characterizes the inherent power of evolutionary algorithms. This power depends on the computational properties of the genetic encoding. With some encodings, two parents recombined with a simple crossover operator can sample from an arbitrary distribution of child phenotypes. Such encodings are termed \emph{expressive encodings} in this paper. Universal function approximators, including popular evolutionary substrates of genetic programming and neural networks, can be used to construct expressive encodings. Remarkably, this approach need not be applied only to domains where the phenotype is a function: Expressivity can be achieved even when optimizing static structures, such as binary vectors. Such simpler settings make it possible to characterize expressive encodings theoretically: Across a variety of test problems, expressive encodings are shown to achieve up to super-exponential convergence speed-ups over the standard direct encoding. The conclusion is that, across evolutionary computation areas as diverse as genetic programming, neuroevolution, genetic algorithms, and theory, expressive encodings can be a key to understanding and realizing the full power of evolution.

Detecting Misclassification Errors in Neural Networks with a Gaussian Process Model

As neural network classifiers are deployed in real-world applications, it is crucial that their predictions are not just accurate, but trustworthy as well. One practical solution is to assign confidence scores to each prediction, then filter out low-confidence predictions. However, existing confidence metrics are not yet sufficiently reliable for this role. This paper presents a new framework that produces more reliable confidence scores for detecting misclassification errors. This framework, RED, calibrates the classifier's inherent confidence indicators and estimates uncertainty of the calibrated confidence scores using Gaussian Processes. Empirical comparisons with other confidence estimation methods on 125 UCI datasets demonstrate that this approach is effective. An experiment on a vision task with a large deep learning architecture further confirms that the method can scale up, and a case study involving out-of-distribution and adversarial samples shows potential of the proposed method to improve robustness of neural network classifiers more broadly in the future.

From Prediction to Prescription: AI-Based Optimization of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for the COVID-19 Pandemic

Several models have been developed to predict how the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, and how it could be contained with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing restrictions and school and business closures. This paper demonstrates how evolutionary AI could be used to facilitate the next step, i.e. determining most effective intervention strategies automatically. Through evolutionary surrogate-assisted prescription (ESP), it is possible to generate a large number of candidate strategies and evaluate them with predictive models. In principle, strategies can be customized for different countries and locales, and balance the need to contain the pandemic and the need to minimize their economic impact. While still limited by available data, early experiments suggest that workplace and school restrictions are the most important and need to be designed carefully. It also demonstrates that results of lifting restrictions can be unreliable, and suggests creative ways in which restrictions can be implemented softly, e.g. by alternating them over time. As more data becomes available, the approach can be increasingly useful in dealing with COVID-19 as well as possible future pandemics.

Effective Reinforcement Learning through Evolutionary Surrogate-Assisted Prescription

There is now significant historical data available on decision making in organizations, consisting of the decision problem, what decisions were made, and how desirable the outcomes were. Using this data, it is possible to learn a surrogate model, and with that model, evolve a decision strategy that optimizes the outcomes. This paper introduces a general such approach, called Evolutionary Surrogate-Assisted Prescription, or ESP. The surrogate is, for example, a random forest or a neural network trained with gradient descent, and the strategy is a neural network that is evolved to maximize the predictions of the surrogate model. ESP is further extended in this paper to sequential decision-making tasks, which makes it possible to evaluate the framework in reinforcement learning (RL) benchmarks. Because the majority of evaluations are done on the surrogate, ESP is more sample efficient, has lower variance, and lower regret than standard RL approaches. Surprisingly, its solutions are also better because both the surrogate and the strategy network regularize the decision-making behavior. ESP thus forms a promising foundation to decision optimization in real-world problems.

Quantifying Point-Prediction Uncertainty in Neural Networks via Residual Estimation with an I/O Kernel

Neural Networks (NNs) have been extensively used for a wide spectrum of real-world regression tasks, where the goal is to predict a numerical outcome such as revenue, effectiveness, or a quantitative result. In many such tasks, the point prediction is not enough, but also the uncertainty (i.e. risk, or confidence) of that prediction must be estimated. Standard NNs, which are most often used in such tasks, do not provide any such information. Existing approaches try to solve this issue by combining Bayesian models with NNs, but these models are hard to implement, more expensive to train, and usually do not perform as well as standard NNs. In this paper, a new framework called RIO is developed that makes it possible to estimate uncertainty in any pretrained standard NN. RIO models prediction residuals using Gaussian Process with a composite input/output kernel. The residual prediction and I/O kernel are theoretically motivated and the framework is evaluated in twelve real-world datasets. It is found to provide reliable estimates of the uncertainty, reduce the error of the point predictions, and scale well to large datasets. Given that RIO can be applied to any standard NN without modifications to model architecture or training pipeline, it provides an important ingredient in building real-world applications of NNs.

BigDL: A Distributed Deep Learning Framework for Big Data

In this paper, we present BigDL, a distributed deep learning framework for Big Data platforms and workflows. It is implemented on top of Apache Spark, and allows users to write their deep learning applications as standard Spark programs (running directly on large-scale big data clusters in a distributed fashion). It provides an expressive, "data-analytics integrated" deep learning programming model, so that users can easily build the end-to-end analytics + AI pipelines under a unified programming paradigm; by implementing an AllReduce like operation using existing primitives in Spark (e.g., shuffle, broadcast, and in-memory data persistence), it also provides a highly efficient "parameter server" style architecture, so as to achieve highly scalable, data-parallel distributed training. Since its initial open source release, BigDL users have built many analytics and deep learning applications (e.g., object detection, sequence-to-sequence generation, visual similarity, neural recommendations, fraud detection, etc.) on Spark.

Enhancing Evolutionary Optimization in Uncertain Environments by Allocating Evaluations via Multi-armed Bandit Algorithms

Optimization problems with uncertain fitness functions are common in the real world, and present unique challenges for evolutionary optimization approaches. Existing issues include excessively expensive evaluation, lack of solution reliability, and incapability in maintaining high overall fitness during optimization. Using conversion rate optimization as an example, this paper proposes a series of new techniques for addressing these issues. The main innovation is to augment evolutionary algorithms by allocating evaluation budget through multi-armed bandit algorithms. Experimental results demonstrate that multi-armed bandit algorithms can be used to allocate evaluations efficiently, select the winning solution reliably and increase overall fitness during exploration. The proposed methods can be generalized to any optimization problems with noisy fitness functions.