Random Forest-of-Thoughts: Uncertainty-aware Reasoning for Computational Social Science

Social surveys in computational social science are well-designed by elaborate domain theories that can effectively reflect the interviewee's deep thoughts without concealing their true feelings. The candidate questionnaire options highly depend on the interviewee's previous answer, which results in the complexity of social survey analysis, the time, and the expertise required. The ability of large language models (LLMs) to perform complex reasoning is well-enhanced by prompting learning such as Chain-of-thought (CoT) but still confined to left-to-right decision-making processes or limited paths during inference. This means they can fall short in problems that require exploration and uncertainty searching. In response, a novel large language model prompting method, called Random Forest of Thoughts (RFoT), is proposed for generating uncertainty reasoning to fit the area of computational social science. The RFoT allows LLMs to perform deliberate decision-making by generating diverse thought space and randomly selecting the sub-thoughts to build the forest of thoughts. It can extend the exploration and prediction of overall performance, benefiting from the extensive research space of response. The method is applied to optimize computational social science analysis on two datasets covering a spectrum of social survey analysis problems. Our experiments show that RFoT significantly enhances language models' abilities on two novel social survey analysis problems requiring non-trivial reasoning.

Primary and Secondary Factor Consistency as Domain Knowledge to Guide Happiness Computing in Online Assessment

Happiness computing based on large-scale online web data and machine learning methods is an emerging research topic that underpins a range of issues, from personal growth to social stability. Many advanced Machine Learning (ML) models with explanations are used to compute the happiness online assessment while maintaining high accuracy of results. However, domain knowledge constraints, such as the primary and secondary relations of happiness factors, are absent from these models, which limits the association between computing results and the right reasons for why they occurred. This article attempts to provide new insights into the explanation consistency from an empirical study perspective. Then we study how to represent and introduce domain knowledge constraints to make ML models more trustworthy. We achieve this through: (1) proving that multiple prediction models with additive factor attributions will have the desirable property of primary and secondary relations consistency, and (2) showing that factor relations with quantity can be represented as an importance distribution for encoding domain knowledge. Factor explanation difference is penalized by the Kullback-Leibler divergence-based loss among computing models. Experimental results using two online web datasets show that domain knowledge of stable factor relations exists. Using this knowledge not only improves happiness computing accuracy but also reveals more significative happiness factors for assisting decisions well.

PRSNet: Part Relation and Selection Network for Bone Age Assessment

Bone age is one of the most important indicators for assessing bone's maturity, which can help to interpret human's growth development level and potential progress. In the clinical practice, bone age assessment (BAA) of X-ray images requires the joint consideration of the appearance and location information of hand bones. These kinds of information can be effectively captured by the relation of different anatomical parts of hand bone. Recently developed methods differ mostly in how they model the part relation and choose useful parts for BAA. However, these methods neglect the mining of relationship among different parts, which can help to improve the assessment accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel part relation module, which accurately discovers the underlying concurrency of parts by using multi-scale context information of deep learning feature representation. Furthermore, based on the part relation, we explore a new part selection module, which comprehensively measures the importance of parts and select the top ranking parts for assisting BAA. We jointly train our part relation and selection modules in an end-to-end way, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the public RSNA 2017 Pediatric Bone Age benchmark dataset and outperforming other competitive methods by a significant margin.