Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires several orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part II, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7,424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4$\sigma$ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS improves the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Clinical Text Summarization: Adapting Large Language Models Can Outperform Human Experts

Sifting through vast textual data and summarizing key information imposes a substantial burden on how clinicians allocate their time. Although large language models (LLMs) have shown immense promise in natural language processing (NLP) tasks, their efficacy across diverse clinical summarization tasks has not yet been rigorously examined. In this work, we employ domain adaptation methods on eight LLMs, spanning six datasets and four distinct summarization tasks: radiology reports, patient questions, progress notes, and doctor-patient dialogue. Our thorough quantitative assessment reveals trade-offs between models and adaptation methods in addition to instances where recent advances in LLMs may not lead to improved results. Further, in a clinical reader study with six physicians, we depict that summaries from the best adapted LLM are preferable to human summaries in terms of completeness and correctness. Our ensuing qualitative analysis delineates mutual challenges faced by both LLMs and human experts. Lastly, we correlate traditional quantitative NLP metrics with reader study scores to enhance our understanding of how these metrics align with physician preferences. Our research marks the first evidence of LLMs outperforming human experts in clinical text summarization across multiple tasks. This implies that integrating LLMs into clinical workflows could alleviate documentation burden, empowering clinicians to focus more on personalized patient care and other irreplaceable human aspects of medicine.

Application of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Detecting Extreme Weather in Climate Datasets

Detecting extreme events in large datasets is a major challenge in climate science research. Current algorithms for extreme event detection are build upon human expertise in defining events based on subjective thresholds of relevant physical variables. Often, multiple competing methods produce vastly different results on the same dataset. Accurate characterization of extreme events in climate simulations and observational data archives is critical for understanding the trends and potential impacts of such events in a climate change content. This study presents the first application of Deep Learning techniques as alternative methodology for climate extreme events detection. Deep neural networks are able to learn high-level representations of a broad class of patterns from labeled data. In this work, we developed deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classification system and demonstrated the usefulness of Deep Learning technique for tackling climate pattern detection problems. Coupled with Bayesian based hyper-parameter optimization scheme, our deep CNN system achieves 89\%-99\% of accuracy in detecting extreme events (Tropical Cyclones, Atmospheric Rivers and Weather Fronts