Normalization Layer Per-Example Gradients are Sufficient to Predict Gradient Noise Scale in Transformers

Per-example gradient norms are a vital ingredient for estimating gradient noise scale (GNS) with minimal variance. Observing the tensor contractions required to compute them, we propose a method with minimal FLOPs in 3D or greater tensor regimes by simultaneously computing the norms while computing the parameter gradients. Using this method we are able to observe the GNS of different layers at higher accuracy than previously possible. We find that the total GNS of contemporary transformer models is predicted well by the GNS of only the normalization layers. As a result, focusing only on the normalization layer, we develop a custom kernel to compute the per-example gradient norms while performing the LayerNorm backward pass with zero throughput overhead. Tracking GNS on only those layers, we are able to guide a practical batch size schedule that reduces training time by 18% on a Chinchilla-optimal language model.

Sparse maximal update parameterization: A holistic approach to sparse training dynamics

Several challenges make it difficult for sparse neural networks to compete with dense models. First, setting a large fraction of weights to zero impairs forward and gradient signal propagation. Second, sparse studies often need to test multiple sparsity levels, while also introducing new hyperparameters (HPs), leading to prohibitive tuning costs. Indeed, the standard practice is to re-use the learning HPs originally crafted for dense models. Unfortunately, we show sparse and dense networks do not share the same optimal HPs. Without stable dynamics and effective training recipes, it is costly to test sparsity at scale, which is key to surpassing dense networks and making the business case for sparsity acceleration in hardware. A holistic approach is needed to tackle these challenges and we propose S$\mu$Par as one such approach. S$\mu$Par ensures activations, gradients, and weight updates all scale independently of sparsity level. Further, by reparameterizing the HPs, S$\mu$Par enables the same HP values to be optimal as we vary both sparsity level and model width. HPs can be tuned on small dense networks and transferred to large sparse models, greatly reducing tuning costs. On large-scale language modeling, S$\mu$Par training improves loss by up to 8.2% over the common approach of using the dense model standard parameterization.

SutraNets: Sub-series Autoregressive Networks for Long-Sequence, Probabilistic Forecasting

We propose SutraNets, a novel method for neural probabilistic forecasting of long-sequence time series. SutraNets use an autoregressive generative model to factorize the likelihood of long sequences into products of conditional probabilities. When generating long sequences, most autoregressive approaches suffer from harmful error accumulation, as well as challenges in modeling long-distance dependencies. SutraNets treat long, univariate prediction as multivariate prediction over lower-frequency sub-series. Autoregression proceeds across time and across sub-series in order to ensure coherent multivariate (and, hence, high-frequency univariate) outputs. Since sub-series can be generated using fewer steps, SutraNets effectively reduce error accumulation and signal path distances. We find SutraNets to significantly improve forecasting accuracy over competitive alternatives on six real-world datasets, including when we vary the number of sub-series and scale up the depth and width of the underlying sequence models.

C2FAR: Coarse-to-Fine Autoregressive Networks for Precise Probabilistic Forecasting

We present coarse-to-fine autoregressive networks (C2FAR), a method for modeling the probability distribution of univariate, numeric random variables. C2FAR generates a hierarchical, coarse-to-fine discretization of a variable autoregressively; progressively finer intervals of support are generated from a sequence of binned distributions, where each distribution is conditioned on previously-generated coarser intervals. Unlike prior (flat) binned distributions, C2FAR can represent values with exponentially higher precision, for only a linear increase in complexity. We use C2FAR for probabilistic forecasting via a recurrent neural network, thus modeling time series autoregressively in both space and time. C2FAR is the first method to simultaneously handle discrete and continuous series of arbitrary scale and distribution shape. This flexibility enables a variety of time series use cases, including anomaly detection, interpolation, and compression. C2FAR achieves improvements over the state-of-the-art on several benchmark forecasting datasets.