Stability-Aware Training of Neural Network Interatomic Potentials with Differentiable Boltzmann Estimators

Neural network interatomic potentials (NNIPs) are an attractive alternative to ab-initio methods for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. However, they can produce unstable simulations which sample unphysical states, limiting their usefulness for modeling phenomena occurring over longer timescales. To address these challenges, we present Stability-Aware Boltzmann Estimator (StABlE) Training, a multi-modal training procedure which combines conventional supervised training from quantum-mechanical energies and forces with reference system observables, to produce stable and accurate NNIPs. StABlE Training iteratively runs MD simulations to seek out unstable regions, and corrects the instabilities via supervision with a reference observable. The training procedure is enabled by the Boltzmann Estimator, which allows efficient computation of gradients required to train neural networks to system observables, and can detect both global and local instabilities. We demonstrate our methodology across organic molecules, tetrapeptides, and condensed phase systems, along with using three modern NNIP architectures. In all three cases, StABlE-trained models achieve significant improvements in simulation stability and recovery of structural and dynamic observables. In some cases, StABlE-trained models outperform conventional models trained on datasets 50 times larger. As a general framework applicable across NNIP architectures and systems, StABlE Training is a powerful tool for training stable and accurate NNIPs, particularly in the absence of large reference datasets.

FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators

FourCastNet, short for Fourier Forecasting Neural Network, is a global data-driven weather forecasting model that provides accurate short to medium-range global predictions at $0.25^{\circ}$ resolution. FourCastNet accurately forecasts high-resolution, fast-timescale variables such as the surface wind speed, precipitation, and atmospheric water vapor. It has important implications for planning wind energy resources, predicting extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones, and atmospheric rivers. FourCastNet matches the forecasting accuracy of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), a state-of-the-art Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, at short lead times for large-scale variables, while outperforming IFS for variables with complex fine-scale structure, including precipitation. FourCastNet generates a week-long forecast in less than 2 seconds, orders of magnitude faster than IFS. The speed of FourCastNet enables the creation of rapid and inexpensive large-ensemble forecasts with thousands of ensemble-members for improving probabilistic forecasting. We discuss how data-driven deep learning models such as FourCastNet are a valuable addition to the meteorology toolkit to aid and augment NWP models.

Multi-Stage Fault Warning for Large Electric Grids Using Anomaly Detection and Machine Learning

In the monitoring of a complex electric grid, it is of paramount importance to provide operators with early warnings of anomalies detected on the network, along with a precise classification and diagnosis of the specific fault type. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-stage early warning system prototype for electric grid fault detection, classification, subgroup discovery, and visualization. In the first stage, a computationally efficient anomaly detection method based on quartiles detects the presence of a fault in real time. In the second stage, the fault is classified into one of nine pre-defined disaster scenarios. The time series data are first mapped to highly discriminative features by applying dimensionality reduction based on temporal autocorrelation. The features are then mapped through one of three classification techniques: support vector machine, random forest, and artificial neural network. Finally in the third stage, intra-class clustering based on dynamic time warping is used to characterize the fault with further granularity. Results on the Bonneville Power Administration electric grid data show that i) the proposed anomaly detector is both fast and accurate; ii) dimensionality reduction leads to dramatic improvement in classification accuracy and speed; iii) the random forest method offers the most accurate, consistent, and robust fault classification; and iv) time series within a given class naturally separate into five distinct clusters which correspond closely to the geographical distribution of electric grid buses.