High-dimensional point forecast combinations for emergency department demand

Current work on forecasting emergency department (ED) admissions focuses on disease aggregates or singular disease types. However, given differences in the dynamics of individual diseases, it is unlikely that any single forecasting model would accurately account for each disease and for all time, leading to significant forecast model uncertainty. Yet, forecasting models for ED admissions to-date do not explore the utility of forecast combinations to improve forecast accuracy and stability. It is also unknown whether improvements in forecast accuracy can be yield from (1) incorporating a large number of environmental and anthropogenic covariates or (2) forecasting total ED causes by aggregating cause-specific ED forecasts. To address this gap, we propose high-dimensional forecast combination schemes to combine a large number of forecasting individual models for forecasting cause-specific ED admissions over multiple causes and forecast horizons. We use time series data of ED admissions with an extensive set of explanatory lagged variables at the national level, including meteorological/ambient air pollutant variables and ED admissions of all 16 causes studied. We show that the simple forecast combinations yield forecast accuracies of around 3.81%-23.54% across causes. Furthermore, forecast combinations outperform individual forecasting models, in more than 50% of scenarios (across all ED admission categories and horizons) in a statistically significant manner. Inclusion of high-dimensional covariates and aggregating cause-specific forecasts to provide all-cause ED forecasts provided modest improvements in forecast accuracy. Forecasting cause-specific ED admissions can provide fine-scale forward guidance on resource optimization and pandemic preparedness and forecast combinations can be used to hedge against model uncertainty when forecasting across a wide range of admission categories.

Geometric Correspondence Fields: Learned Differentiable Rendering for 3D Pose Refinement in the Wild

We present a novel 3D pose refinement approach based on differentiable rendering for objects of arbitrary categories in the wild. In contrast to previous methods, we make two main contributions: First, instead of comparing real-world images and synthetic renderings in the RGB or mask space, we compare them in a feature space optimized for 3D pose refinement. Second, we introduce a novel differentiable renderer that learns to approximate the rasterization backward pass from data instead of relying on a hand-crafted algorithm. For this purpose, we predict deep cross-domain correspondences between RGB images and 3D model renderings in the form of what we call geometric correspondence fields. These correspondence fields serve as pixel-level gradients which are analytically propagated backward through the rendering pipeline to perform a gradient-based optimization directly on the 3D pose. In this way, we precisely align 3D models to objects in RGB images which results in significantly improved 3D pose estimates. We evaluate our approach on the challenging Pix3D dataset and achieve up to 55% relative improvement compared to state-of-the-art refinement methods in multiple metrics.