Forecasting Open-Weight AI Model Growth on Hugging Face

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

Modular Prompt Learning Improves Vision-Language Models

Pre-trained vision-language models are able to interpret visual concepts and language semantics. Prompt learning, a method of constructing prompts for text encoders or image encoders, elicits the potentials of pre-trained models and readily adapts them to new scenarios. Compared to fine-tuning, prompt learning enables the model to achieve comparable or better performance using fewer trainable parameters. Besides, prompt learning freezes the pre-trained model and avoids the catastrophic forgetting issue in the fine-tuning. Continuous prompts inserted into the input of every transformer layer (i.e. deep prompts) can improve the performances of pre-trained models on downstream tasks. For i-th transformer layer, the inserted prompts replace previously inserted prompts in the $(i-1)$-th layer. Although the self-attention mechanism contextualizes newly inserted prompts for the current layer and embeddings from the previous layer's output, removing all inserted prompts from the previous layer inevitably loses information contained in the continuous prompts. In this work, we propose Modular Prompt Learning (MPL) that is designed to promote the preservation of information contained in the inserted prompts. We evaluate the proposed method on base-to-new generalization and cross-dataset tasks. On average of 11 datasets, our method achieves 0.7% performance gain on the base-to-new generalization task compared to the state-of-the-art method. The largest improvement on the individual dataset is 10.7% (EuroSAT dataset).

Inferring from Logits: Exploring Best Practices for Decoding-Free Generative Candidate Selection

Generative Language Models rely on autoregressive decoding to produce the output sequence token by token. Many tasks such as preference optimization, require the model to produce task-level output consisting of multiple tokens directly by selecting candidates from a pool as predictions. Determining a task-level prediction from candidates using the ordinary token-level decoding mechanism is constrained by time-consuming decoding and interrupted gradients by discrete token selection. Existing works have been using decoding-free candidate selection methods to obtain candidate probability from initial output logits over vocabulary. Though these estimation methods are widely used, they are not systematically evaluated, especially on end tasks. We introduce an evaluation of a comprehensive collection of decoding-free candidate selection approaches on a comprehensive set of tasks, including five multiple-choice QA tasks with a small candidate pool and four clinical decision tasks with a massive amount of candidates, some with 10k+ options. We evaluate the estimation methods paired with a wide spectrum of foundation LMs covering different architectures, sizes and training paradigms. The results and insights from our analysis inform the future model design.

Differentiable Prompt Learning for Vision Language Models

Prompt learning is an effective way to exploit the potential of large-scale pre-trained foundational models. Continuous prompts parameterize context tokens in prompts by turning them into differentiable vectors. Deep continuous prompts insert prompts not only in the input but also in the intermediate hidden representations. Manually designed deep continuous prompts exhibit a remarkable improvement compared to the zero-shot pre-trained model on downstream tasks. How to automate the continuous prompt design is an underexplored area, and a fundamental question arises, is manually designed deep prompt strategy optimal? To answer this question, we propose a method dubbed differentiable prompt learning (DPL). The DPL method is formulated as an optimization problem to automatically determine the optimal context length of the prompt to be added to each layer, where the objective is to maximize the performance. We test the DPL method on the pre-trained CLIP. We empirically find that by using only limited data, our DPL method can find deep continuous prompt configuration with high confidence. The performance on the downstream tasks exhibits the superiority of the automatic design: our method boosts the average test accuracy by 2.60% on 11 datasets compared to baseline methods. Besides, our method focuses only on the prompt configuration (i.e. context length for each layer), which means that our method is compatible with the baseline methods that have sophisticated designs to boost the performance. The DPL method can be deployed to large language models or computer vision models at no cost.

Predicting Time Series of Networked Dynamical Systems without Knowing Topology

Many real-world complex systems, such as epidemic spreading networks and ecosystems, can be modeled as networked dynamical systems that produce multivariate time series. Learning the intrinsic dynamics from observational data is pivotal for forecasting system behaviors and making informed decisions. However, existing methods for modeling networked time series often assume known topologies, whereas real-world networks are typically incomplete or inaccurate, with missing or spurious links that hinder precise predictions. Moreover, while networked time series often originate from diverse topologies, the ability of models to generalize across topologies has not been systematically evaluated. To address these gaps, we propose a novel framework for learning network dynamics directly from observed time-series data, when prior knowledge of graph topology or governing dynamical equations is absent. Our approach leverages continuous graph neural networks with an attention mechanism to construct a latent topology, enabling accurate reconstruction of future trajectories for network states. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic networks demonstrate that our model not only captures dynamics effectively without topology knowledge but also generalizes to unseen time series originating from diverse topologies.

Architecture-Aware Learning Curve Extrapolation via Graph Ordinary Differential Equation

Learning curve extrapolation predicts neural network performance from early training epochs and has been applied to accelerate AutoML, facilitating hyperparameter tuning and neural architecture search. However, existing methods typically model the evolution of learning curves in isolation, neglecting the impact of neural network (NN) architectures, which influence the loss landscape and learning trajectories. In this work, we explore whether incorporating neural network architecture improves learning curve modeling and how to effectively integrate this architectural information. Motivated by the dynamical system view of optimization, we propose a novel architecture-aware neural differential equation model to forecast learning curves continuously. We empirically demonstrate its ability to capture the general trend of fluctuating learning curves while quantifying uncertainty through variational parameters. Our model outperforms current state-of-the-art learning curve extrapolation methods and pure time-series modeling approaches for both MLP and CNN-based learning curves. Additionally, we explore the applicability of our method in Neural Architecture Search scenarios, such as training configuration ranking.

Optimizing Waste Management with Advanced Object Detection for Garbage Classification

Garbage production and littering are persistent global issues that pose significant environmental challenges. Despite large-scale efforts to manage waste through collection and sorting, existing approaches remain inefficient, leading to inadequate recycling and disposal. Therefore, developing advanced AI-based systems is less labor intensive approach for addressing the growing waste problem more effectively. These models can be applied to sorting systems or possibly waste collection robots that may produced in the future. AI models have grown significantly at identifying objects through object detection. This paper reviews the implementation of AI models for classifying trash through object detection, specifically focusing on using YOLO V5 for training and testing. The study demonstrates how YOLO V5 can effectively identify various types of waste, including plastic, paper, glass, metal, cardboard, and biodegradables.

Spatio-Temporal Graphical Counterfactuals: An Overview

Counterfactual thinking is a critical yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve their performances for new scenarios. Many research works, including Potential Outcome Model and Structural Causal Model, have been proposed to realize it. However, their modelings, theoretical foundations and application approaches are usually different. Moreover, there is a lack of graphical approach to infer spatio-temporal counterfactuals, that considers spatial and temporal interactions between multiple units. Thus, in this work, our aim is to investigate a survey to compare and discuss different counterfactual models, theories and approaches, and further build a unified graphical causal frameworks to infer the spatio-temporal counterfactuals.

On the Robustness of Language Models for Tabular Question Answering

Large Language Models (LLMs), originally shown to ace various text comprehension tasks have also remarkably been shown to tackle table comprehension tasks without specific training. While previous research has explored LLM capabilities with tabular dataset tasks, our study assesses the influence of $\textit{in-context learning}$,$ \textit{model scale}$, $\textit{instruction tuning}$, and $\textit{domain biases}$ on Tabular Question Answering (TQA). We evaluate the robustness of LLMs on Wikipedia-based $\textbf{WTQ}$ and financial report-based $\textbf{TAT-QA}$ TQA datasets, focusing on their ability to robustly interpret tabular data under various augmentations and perturbations. Our findings indicate that instructions significantly enhance performance, with recent models like Llama3 exhibiting greater robustness over earlier versions. However, data contamination and practical reliability issues persist, especially with WTQ. We highlight the need for improved methodologies, including structure-aware self-attention mechanisms and better handling of domain-specific tabular data, to develop more reliable LLMs for table comprehension.

Graph is all you need? Lightweight data-agnostic neural architecture search without training

Neural architecture search (NAS) enables the automatic design of neural network models. However, training the candidates generated by the search algorithm for performance evaluation incurs considerable computational overhead. Our method, dubbed nasgraph, remarkably reduces the computational costs by converting neural architectures to graphs and using the average degree, a graph measure, as the proxy in lieu of the evaluation metric. Our training-free NAS method is data-agnostic and light-weight. It can find the best architecture among 200 randomly sampled architectures from NAS-Bench201 in 217 CPU seconds. Besides, our method is able to achieve competitive performance on various datasets including NASBench-101, NASBench-201, and NDS search spaces. We also demonstrate that nasgraph generalizes to more challenging tasks on Micro TransNAS-Bench-101.