Optimal starting point for time series forecasting

Recent advances on time series forecasting mainly focus on improving the forecasting models themselves. However, managing the length of the input data can also significantly enhance prediction performance. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called Optimal Starting Point Time Series Forecast (OSP-TSP) to capture the intrinsic characteristics of time series data. By adjusting the sequence length via leveraging the XGBoost and LightGBM models, the proposed approach can determine optimal starting point (OSP) of the time series and thus enhance the prediction performances. The performances of the OSP-TSP approach are then evaluated across various frequencies on the M4 dataset and other real-world datasets. Empirical results indicate that predictions based on the OSP-TSP approach consistently outperform those using the complete dataset. Moreover, recognizing the necessity of sufficient data to effectively train models for OSP identification, we further propose targeted solutions to address the issue of data insufficiency.

A Selective Review on Statistical Methods for Massive Data Computation: Distributed Computing, Subsampling, and Minibatch Techniques

This paper presents a selective review of statistical computation methods for massive data analysis. A huge amount of statistical methods for massive data computation have been rapidly developed in the past decades. In this work, we focus on three categories of statistical computation methods: (1) distributed computing, (2) subsampling methods, and (3) minibatch gradient techniques. The first class of literature is about distributed computing and focuses on the situation, where the dataset size is too huge to be comfortably handled by one single computer. In this case, a distributed computation system with multiple computers has to be utilized. The second class of literature is about subsampling methods and concerns about the situation, where the sample size of dataset is small enough to be placed on one single computer but too large to be easily processed by its memory as a whole. The last class of literature studies those minibatch gradient related optimization techniques, which have been extensively used for optimizing various deep learning models.