Consistency Checks for Language Model Forecasters

Forecasting is a task that is difficult to evaluate: the ground truth can only be known in the future. Recent work showing LLM forecasters rapidly approaching human-level performance begs the question: how can we benchmark and evaluate these forecasters instantaneously? Following the consistency check framework, we measure the performance of forecasters in terms of the consistency of their predictions on different logically-related questions. We propose a new, general consistency metric based on arbitrage: for example, if a forecasting AI illogically predicts that both the Democratic and Republican parties have 60% probability of winning the 2024 US presidential election, an arbitrageur can trade against the forecaster's predictions and make a profit. We build an automated evaluation system that generates a set of base questions, instantiates consistency checks from these questions, elicits the predictions of the forecaster, and measures the consistency of the predictions. We then build a standard, proper-scoring-rule forecasting benchmark, and show that our (instantaneous) consistency metrics correlate with LLM forecasters' ground truth Brier scores (which are only known in the future). We also release a consistency benchmark that resolves in 2028, providing a long-term evaluation tool for forecasting.

Towards Global Localization using Multi-Modal Object-Instance Re-Identification

Re-identification (ReID) is a critical challenge in computer vision, predominantly studied in the context of pedestrians and vehicles. However, robust object-instance ReID, which has significant implications for tasks such as autonomous exploration, long-term perception, and scene understanding, remains underexplored. In this work, we address this gap by proposing a novel dual-path object-instance re-identification transformer architecture that integrates multimodal RGB and depth information. By leveraging depth data, we demonstrate improvements in ReID across scenes that are cluttered or have varying illumination conditions. Additionally, we develop a ReID-based localization framework that enables accurate camera localization and pose identification across different viewpoints. We validate our methods using two custom-built RGB-D datasets, as well as multiple sequences from the open-source TUM RGB-D datasets. Our approach demonstrates significant improvements in both object instance ReID (mAP of 75.18) and localization accuracy (success rate of 83% on TUM-RGBD), highlighting the essential role of object ReID in advancing robotic perception. Our models, frameworks, and datasets have been made publicly available.