Predicting Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality with A.I.-based Gleason Grading

Gleason grading of prostate cancer is an important prognostic factor but suffers from poor reproducibility, particularly among non-subspecialist pathologists. Although artificial intelligence (A.I.) tools have demonstrated Gleason grading on-par with expert pathologists, it remains an open question whether A.I. grading translates to better prognostication. In this study, we developed a system to predict prostate-cancer specific mortality via A.I.-based Gleason grading and subsequently evaluated its ability to risk-stratify patients on an independent retrospective cohort of 2,807 prostatectomy cases from a single European center with 5-25 years of follow-up (median: 13, interquartile range 9-17). The A.I.'s risk scores produced a C-index of 0.84 (95%CI 0.80-0.87) for prostate cancer-specific mortality. Upon discretizing these risk scores into risk groups analogous to pathologist Grade Groups (GG), the A.I. had a C-index of 0.82 (95%CI 0.78-0.85). On the subset of cases with a GG in the original pathology report (n=1,517), the A.I.'s C-indices were 0.87 and 0.85 for continuous and discrete grading, respectively, compared to 0.79 (95%CI 0.71-0.86) for GG obtained from the reports. These represent improvements of 0.08 (95%CI 0.01-0.15) and 0.07 (95%CI 0.00-0.14) respectively. Our results suggest that A.I.-based Gleason grading can lead to effective risk-stratification and warrants further evaluation for improving disease management.

Interpretable Survival Prediction for Colorectal Cancer using Deep Learning

Deriving interpretable prognostic features from deep-learning-based prognostic histopathology models remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a deep learning system (DLS) for predicting disease specific survival for stage II and III colorectal cancer using 3,652 cases (27,300 slides). When evaluated on two validation datasets containing 1,239 cases (9,340 slides) and 738 cases (7,140 slides) respectively, the DLS achieved a 5-year disease-specific survival AUC of 0.70 (95%CI 0.66-0.73) and 0.69 (95%CI 0.64-0.72), and added significant predictive value to a set of 9 clinicopathologic features. To interpret the DLS, we explored the ability of different human-interpretable features to explain the variance in DLS scores. We observed that clinicopathologic features such as T-category, N-category, and grade explained a small fraction of the variance in DLS scores (R2=18% in both validation sets). Next, we generated human-interpretable histologic features by clustering embeddings from a deep-learning based image-similarity model and showed that they explain the majority of the variance (R2 of 73% to 80%). Furthermore, the clustering-derived feature most strongly associated with high DLS scores was also highly prognostic in isolation. With a distinct visual appearance (poorly differentiated tumor cell clusters adjacent to adipose tissue), this feature was identified by annotators with 87.0-95.5% accuracy. Our approach can be used to explain predictions from a prognostic deep learning model and uncover potentially-novel prognostic features that can be reliably identified by people for future validation studies.

Whole-Slide Image Focus Quality: Automatic Assessment and Impact on AI Cancer Detection

Digital pathology enables remote access or consults and powerful image analysis algorithms. However, the slide digitization process can create artifacts such as out-of-focus (OOF). OOF is often only detected upon careful review, potentially causing rescanning and workflow delays. Although scan-time operator screening for whole-slide OOF is feasible, manual screening for OOF affecting only parts of a slide is impractical. We developed a convolutional neural network (ConvFocus) to exhaustively localize and quantify the severity of OOF regions on digitized slides. ConvFocus was developed using our refined semi-synthetic OOF data generation process, and evaluated using real whole-slide images spanning 3 different tissue types and 3 different stain types that were digitized by two different scanners. ConvFocus's predictions were compared with pathologist-annotated focus quality grades across 514 distinct regions representing 37,700 35x35{\mu}m image patches, and 21 digitized "z-stack" whole-slide images that contain known OOF patterns. When compared to pathologist-graded focus quality, ConvFocus achieved Spearman rank coefficients of 0.81 and 0.94 on two scanners, and reproduced the expected OOF patterns from z-stack scanning. We also evaluated the impact of OOF on the accuracy of a state-of-the-art metastatic breast cancer detector and saw a consistent decrease in performance with increasing OOF. Comprehensive whole-slide OOF categorization could enable rescans prior to pathologist review, potentially reducing the impact of digitization focus issues on the clinical workflow. We show that the algorithm trained on our semi-synthetic OOF data generalizes well to real OOF regions across tissue types, stains, and scanners. Finally, quantitative OOF maps can flag regions that might otherwise be misclassified by image analysis algorithms, preventing OOF-induced errors.