Enhanced SMC$^2$: Leveraging Gradient Information from Differentiable Particle Filters Within Langevin Proposals

Sequential Monte Carlo Squared (SMC$^2$) is a Bayesian method which can infer the states and parameters of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models. The standard random-walk proposal in SMC$^2$ faces challenges, particularly with high-dimensional parameter spaces. This study outlines a novel approach by harnessing first-order gradients derived from a Common Random Numbers - Particle Filter (CRN-PF) using PyTorch. The resulting gradients can be leveraged within a Langevin proposal without accept/reject. Including Langevin dynamics within the proposal can result in a higher effective sample size and more accurate parameter estimates when compared with the random-walk. The resulting algorithm is parallelized on distributed memory using Message Passing Interface (MPI) and runs in $\mathcal{O}(\log_2N)$ time complexity. Utilizing 64 computational cores we obtain a 51x speed-up when compared to a single core. A GitHub link is given which provides access to the code.

Non-Myopic Sensor Control for Target Search and Track Using a Sample-Based GOSPA Implementation

This paper is concerned with sensor management for target search and track using the generalised optimal subpattern assignment (GOSPA) metric. Utilising the GOSPA metric to predict future system performance is computationally challenging, because of the need to account for uncertainties within the scenario, notably the number of targets, the locations of targets, and the measurements generated by the targets subsequent to performing sensing actions. In this paper, efficient sample-based techniques are developed to calculate the predicted mean square GOSPA metric. These techniques allow for missed detections and false alarms, and thereby enable the metric to be exploited in scenarios more complex than those previously considered. Furthermore, the GOSPA methodology is extended to perform non-myopic (i.e. multi-step) sensor management via the development of a Bellman-type recursion that optimises a conditional GOSPA-based metric. Simulations for scenarios with missed detections, false alarms, and planning horizons of up to three time steps demonstrate the approach, in particular showing that optimal plans align with an intuitive understanding of how taking into account the opportunity to make future observations should influence the current action. It is concluded that the GOSPA-based, non-myopic search and track algorithm offers a powerful mechanism for sensor management.

Bayesian Decision Trees Inspired from Evolutionary Algorithms

Bayesian Decision Trees (DTs) are generally considered a more advanced and accurate model than a regular Decision Tree (DT) because they can handle complex and uncertain data. Existing work on Bayesian DTs uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with an accept-reject mechanism and sample using naive proposals to proceed to the next iteration, which can be slow because of the burn-in time needed. We can reduce the burn-in period by proposing a more sophisticated way of sampling or by designing a different numerical Bayesian approach. In this paper, we propose a replacement of the MCMC with an inherently parallel algorithm, the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), and a more effective sampling strategy inspired by the Evolutionary Algorithms (EA). Experiments show that SMC combined with the EA can produce more accurate results compared to MCMC in 100 times fewer iterations.

Parallel Approaches to Accelerate Bayesian Decision Trees

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC. Unfortunately, this can be slow, especially when considering large volumes of data. It is hard to parallelise the accept-reject component of the MCMC. None-the-less, we propose two methods for exploiting parallelism in the MCMC: in the first, we replace the MCMC with another numerical Bayesian approach, the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, which has the appealing property that it is an inherently parallel algorithm; in the second, we consider data partitioning. Both methods use multi-core processing with a HighPerformance Computing (HPC) resource. We test the two methods in various study settings to determine which method is the most beneficial for each test case. Experiments show that data partitioning has limited utility in the settings we consider and that the use of the SMC sampler can improve run-time (compared to the sequential implementation) by up to a factor of 343.

Adaptive Bayesian Beamforming for Imaging by Marginalizing the Speed of Sound

Imaging methods based on array signal processing often require a fixed propagation speed of the medium, or speed of sound (SoS) for methods based on acoustic signals. The resolution of the images formed using these methods is strongly affected by the assumed SoS, which, due to multipath, nonlinear propagation, and non-uniform mediums, is challenging at best to select. In this letter, we propose a Bayesian approach to marginalize the influence of the SoS on beamformers for imaging. We adapt Bayesian direction-of-arrival estimation to an imaging setting and integrate a popular minimum variance beamformer over the posterior of the SoS. To solve the Bayesian integral efficiently, we use numerical Gauss quadrature. We apply our beamforming approach to shallow water sonar imaging where multipath and nonlinear propagation is abundant. We compare against the minimum variance distortionless response (MVDR) beamformer and demonstrate that its Bayesian counterpart achieves improved range and azimuthal resolution while effectively suppressing multipath artifacts.

Can We Automate the Analysis of Online Child Sexual Exploitation Discourse?

Social media's growing popularity raises concerns around children's online safety. Interactions between minors and adults with predatory intentions is a particularly grave concern. Research into online sexual grooming has often relied on domain experts to manually annotate conversations, limiting both scale and scope. In this work, we test how well-automated methods can detect conversational behaviors and replace an expert human annotator. Informed by psychological theories of online grooming, we label $6772$ chat messages sent by child-sex offenders with one of eleven predatory behaviors. We train bag-of-words and natural language inference models to classify each behavior, and show that the best performing models classify behaviors in a manner that is consistent, but not on-par, with human annotation.

Data-driven clustering and Bernoulli merging for the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture filter

This paper proposes a clustering and merging approach for the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter to lower its computational complexity and make it suitable for multiple target tracking with a high number of targets. We define a measurement-driven clustering algorithm to reduce the data association problem into several subproblems, and we provide the derivation of the resulting clustered PMBM posterior density via Kullback-Leibler divergence minimisation. Furthermore, we investigate different strategies to reduce the number of single target hypotheses by approximating the posterior via merging and inter-track swapping of Bernoulli components. We evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm on simulated tracking scenarios with more than one thousand targets.

Efficient Learning of the Parameters of Non-Linear Models using Differentiable Resampling in Particle Filters

It has been widely documented that the sampling and resampling steps in particle filters cannot be differentiated. The {\itshape reparameterisation trick} was introduced to allow the sampling step to be reformulated into a differentiable function. We extend the {\itshape reparameterisation trick} to include the stochastic input to resampling therefore limiting the discontinuities in the gradient calculation after this step. Knowing the gradients of the prior and likelihood allows us to run particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (p-MCMC) and use the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) as the proposal when estimating parameters. We compare the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA), Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with different number of steps and NUTS. We consider two state-space models and show that NUTS improves the mixing of the Markov chain and can produce more accurate results in less computational time.

Formal Verification of Robustness and Resilience of Learning-Enabled State Estimation Systems for Robotics

This paper presents a formal verification guided approach for a principled design and implementation of robust and resilient learning-enabled systems. We focus on learning-enabled state estimation systems (LE-SESs), which have been widely used in robotics applications to determine the current state (e.g., location, speed, direction, etc.) of a complex system. The LE-SESs are networked systems composed of a set of connected components including Bayes filters for localisation, and neural networks for processing sensory input. We study LE-SESs from the perspective of formal verification, which determines the satisfiability of a system model against the specified properties. Over LE-SESs, we investigate two key properties - robustness and resilience - and provide their formal definitions. To enable formal verification, we reduce the LE-SESs to a novel class of labelled transition systems, named {PO}2-LTS in the paper, and formally express the properties as constrained optimisation objectives. We prove that the robustness verification is NP-complete. Based on {PO}2-LTS and the optimisation objectives, practical verification algorithms are developed to check the satisfiability of the properties on the LE-SESs. As a major case study, we interrogate a real-world dynamic tracking system which uses a single Kalman Filter (KF) - a special case of Bayes filter - to localise and track a ground vehicle. Its perception system, based on convolutional neural networks, processes a high-resolution Wide Area Motion Imagery (WAMI) data stream. Experimental results show that our algorithms can not only verify the properties of the WAMI tracking system but also provide representative examples, the latter of which inspired us to take an enhanced LE-SESs design where runtime monitors or joint-KFs are required. Experimental results confirm the improvement of the robustness of the enhanced design.

Reliability Validation of Learning Enabled Vehicle Tracking

This paper studies the reliability of a real-world learning-enabled system, which conducts dynamic vehicle tracking based on a high-resolution wide-area motion imagery input. The system consists of multiple neural network components -- to process the imagery inputs -- and multiple symbolic (Kalman filter) components -- to analyse the processed information for vehicle tracking. It is known that neural networks suffer from adversarial examples, which make them lack robustness. However, it is unclear if and how the adversarial examples over learning components can affect the overall system-level reliability. By integrating a coverage-guided neural network testing tool, DeepConcolic, with the vehicle tracking system, we found that (1) the overall system can be resilient to some adversarial examples thanks to the existence of other components, and (2) the overall system presents an extra level of uncertainty which cannot be determined by analysing the deep learning components only. This research suggests the need for novel verification and validation methods for learning-enabled systems.