Routing Recovery for UAV Networks with Deliberate Attacks: A Reinforcement Learning based Approach

The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) network is popular these years due to its various applications. In the UAV network, routing is significantly affected by the distributed network topology, leading to the issue that UAVs are vulnerable to deliberate damage. Hence, this paper focuses on the routing plan and recovery for UAV networks with attacks. In detail, a deliberate attack model based on the importance of nodes is designed to represent enemy attacks. Then, a node importance ranking mechanism is presented, considering the degree of nodes and link importance. However, it is intractable to handle the routing problem by traditional methods for UAV networks, since link connections change with the UAV availability. Hence, an intelligent algorithm based on reinforcement learning is proposed to recover the routing path when UAVs are attacked. Simulations are conducted and numerical results verify the proposed mechanism performs better than other referred methods.

Learning and Dynamical Models for Sub-seasonal Climate Forecasting: Comparison and Collaboration

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) is the prediction of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time horizon. Skillful SSF would have substantial societal value in areas such as agricultural productivity, hydrology and water resource management, and emergency planning for extreme events such as droughts and wildfires. Despite its societal importance, SSF has stayed a challenging problem compared to both short-term weather forecasting and long-term seasonal forecasting. Recent studies have shown the potential of machine learning (ML) models to advance SSF. In this paper, for the first time, we perform a fine-grained comparison of a suite of modern ML models with start-of-the-art physics-based dynamical models from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project for SSF in the western contiguous United States. Additionally, we explore mechanisms to enhance the ML models by using forecasts from dynamical models. Empirical results illustrate that, on average, ML models outperform dynamical models while the ML models tend to be conservatives in their forecasts compared to the SubX models. Further, we illustrate that ML models make forecasting errors under extreme weather conditions, e.g., cold waves due to the polar vortex, highlighting the need for separate models for extreme events. Finally, we show that suitably incorporating dynamical model forecasts as inputs to ML models can substantially improve the forecasting performance of the ML models. The SSF dataset constructed for the work, dynamical model predictions, and code for the ML models are released along with the paper for the benefit of the broader machine learning community.

Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecasting via Machine Learning: Challenges, Analysis, and Advances

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural productivity, water resource management, transportation and aviation systems, and emergency planning for extreme weather events. However, SSF is considered more challenging than either weather prediction or even seasonal prediction. In this paper, we carefully study a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches for SSF over the US mainland. While atmosphere-land-ocean couplings and the limited amount of good quality data makes it hard to apply black-box ML naively, we show that with carefully constructed feature representations, even linear regression models, e.g., Lasso, can be made to perform well. Among a broad suite of 10 ML approaches considered, gradient boosting performs the best, and deep learning (DL) methods show some promise with careful architecture choices. Overall, suitable ML methods are able to outperform the climatological baseline, i.e., predictions based on the 30-year average at a given location and time. Further, based on studying feature importance, ocean (especially indices based on climatic oscillations such as El Nino) and land (soil moisture) covariates are found to be predictive, whereas atmospheric covariates are not considered helpful.

High-Dimensional Dependency Structure Learning for Physical Processes

In this paper, we consider the use of structure learning methods for probabilistic graphical models to identify statistical dependencies in high-dimensional physical processes. Such processes are often synthetically characterized using PDEs (partial differential equations) and are observed in a variety of natural phenomena, including geoscience data capturing atmospheric and hydrological phenomena. Classical structure learning approaches such as the PC algorithm and variants are challenging to apply due to their high computational and sample requirements. Modern approaches, often based on sparse regression and variants, do come with finite sample guarantees, but are usually highly sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameters, e.g., parameter $\lambda$ for sparsity inducing constraint or regularization. In this paper, we present ACLIME-ADMM, an efficient two-step algorithm for adaptive structure learning, which estimates an edge specific parameter $\lambda_{ij}$ in the first step, and uses these parameters to learn the structure in the second step. Both steps of our algorithm use (inexact) ADMM to solve suitable linear programs, and all iterations can be done in closed form in an efficient block parallel manner. We compare ACLIME-ADMM with baselines on both synthetic data simulated by partial differential equations (PDEs) that model advection-diffusion processes, and real data (50 years) of daily global geopotential heights to study information flow in the atmosphere. ACLIME-ADMM is shown to be efficient, stable, and competitive, usually better than the baselines especially on difficult problems. On real data, ACLIME-ADMM recovers the underlying structure of global atmospheric circulation, including switches in wind directions at the equator and tropics entirely from the data.