Enhancing End Stage Renal Disease Outcome Prediction: A Multi-Sourced Data-Driven Approach

Objective: To improve prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) progression to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models applied to an integrated clinical and claims dataset of varying observation windows, supported by explainable AI (XAI) to enhance interpretability and reduce bias. Materials and Methods: We utilized data about 10,326 CKD patients, combining their clinical and claims information from 2009 to 2018. Following data preprocessing, cohort identification, and feature engineering, we evaluated multiple statistical, ML and DL models using data extracted from five distinct observation windows. Feature importance and Shapley value analysis were employed to understand key predictors. Models were tested for robustness, clinical relevance, misclassification errors and bias issues. Results: Integrated data models outperformed those using single data sources, with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model achieving the highest AUC (0.93) and F1 score (0.65). A 24-month observation window was identified as optimal for balancing early detection and prediction accuracy. The 2021 eGFR equation improved prediction accuracy and reduced racial bias, notably for African American patients. Discussion: Improved ESRD prediction accuracy, results interpretability and bias mitigation strategies presented in this study have the potential to significantly enhance CKD and ESRD management, support targeted early interventions and reduce healthcare disparities. Conclusion: This study presents a robust framework for predicting ESRD outcomes in CKD patients, improving clinical decision-making and patient care through multi-sourced, integrated data and AI/ML methods. Future research will expand data integration and explore the application of this framework to other chronic diseases.

Towards Interpretable End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Prediction: Utilizing Administrative Claims Data with Explainable AI Techniques

This study explores the potential of utilizing administrative claims data, combined with advanced machine learning and deep learning techniques, to predict the progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). We analyze a comprehensive, 10-year dataset provided by a major health insurance organization to develop prediction models for multiple observation windows using traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest and XGBoost as well as deep learning approaches such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our findings demonstrate that the LSTM model, particularly with a 24-month observation window, exhibits superior performance in predicting ESRD progression, outperforming existing models in the literature. We further apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to enhance interpretability, providing insights into the impact of individual features on predictions at the individual patient level. This study underscores the value of leveraging administrative claims data for CKD management and predicting ESRD progression.

On Curating Responsible and Representative Healthcare Video Recommendations for Patient Education and Health Literacy: An Augmented Intelligence Approach

Studies suggest that one in three US adults use the Internet to diagnose or learn about a health concern. However, such access to health information online could exacerbate the disparities in health information availability and use. Health information seeking behavior (HISB) refers to the ways in which individuals seek information about their health, risks, illnesses, and health-protective behaviors. For patients engaging in searches for health information on digital media platforms, health literacy divides can be exacerbated both by their own lack of knowledge and by algorithmic recommendations, with results that disproportionately impact disadvantaged populations, minorities, and low health literacy users. This study reports on an exploratory investigation of the above challenges by examining whether responsible and representative recommendations can be generated using advanced analytic methods applied to a large corpus of videos and their metadata on a chronic condition (diabetes) from the YouTube social media platform. The paper focusses on biases associated with demographic characters of actors using videos on diabetes that were retrieved and curated for multiple criteria such as encoded medical content and their understandability to address patient education and population health literacy needs. This approach offers an immense opportunity for innovation in human-in-the-loop, augmented-intelligence, bias-aware and responsible algorithmic recommendations by combining the perspectives of health professionals and patients into a scalable and generalizable machine learning framework for patient empowerment and improved health outcomes.

Limitations of ROC on Imbalanced Data: Evaluation of LVAD Mortality Risk Scores

Objective: This study illustrates the ambiguity of ROC in evaluating two classifiers of 90-day LVAD mortality. This paper also introduces the precision recall curve (PRC) as a supplemental metric that is more representative of LVAD classifiers performance in predicting the minority class. Background: In the LVAD domain, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) is a commonly applied metric of performance of classifiers. However, ROC can provide a distorted view of classifiers ability to predict short-term mortality due to the overwhelmingly greater proportion of patients who survive, i.e. imbalanced data. Methods: This study compared the ROC and PRC for the outcome of two classifiers for 90-day LVAD mortality for 800 patients (test group) recorded in INTERMACS who received a continuous-flow LVAD between 2006 and 2016 (mean age of 59 years; 146 females vs. 654 males) in which mortality rate is only %8 at 90-day (imbalanced data). The two classifiers were HeartMate Risk Score (HMRS) and a Random Forest (RF). Results: The ROC indicates fairly good performance of RF and HRMS classifiers with Area Under Curves (AUC) of 0.77 vs. 0.63, respectively. This is in contrast with their PRC with AUC of 0.43 vs. 0.16 for RF and HRMS, respectively. The PRC for HRMS showed the precision rapidly dropped to only 10% with slightly increasing sensitivity. Conclusion: The ROC can portray an overly-optimistic performance of a classifier or risk score when applied to imbalanced data. The PRC provides better insight about the performance of a classifier by focusing on the minority class.

Early Stratification of Patients at Risk for Postoperative Complications after Elective Colectomy

Stratifying patients at risk for postoperative complications may facilitate timely and accurate workups and reduce the burden of adverse events on patients and the health system. Currently, a widely-used surgical risk calculator created by the American College of Surgeons, NSQIP, uses 21 preoperative covariates to assess risk of postoperative complications, but lacks dynamic, real-time capabilities to accommodate postoperative information. We propose a new Hidden Markov Model sequence classifier for analyzing patients' postoperative temperature sequences that incorporates their time-invariant characteristics in both transition probability and initial state probability in order to develop a postoperative "real-time" complication detector. Data from elective Colectomy surgery indicate that our method has improved classification performance compared to 8 other machine learning classifiers when using the full temperature sequence associated with the patients' length of stay. Additionally, within 44 hours after surgery, the performance of the model is close to that of full-length temperature sequence.

A Deep Learning Architecture for De-identification of Patient Notes: Implementation and Evaluation

De-identification is the process of removing 18 protected health information (PHI) from clinical notes in order for the text to be considered not individually identifiable. Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) has allowed for the use of deep learning techniques for the task of de-identification. In this paper, we present a deep learning architecture that builds on the latest NLP advances by incorporating deep contextualized word embeddings and variational drop out Bi-LSTMs. We test this architecture on two gold standard datasets and show that the architecture achieves state-of-the-art performance on both data sets while also converging faster than other systems without the use of dictionaries or other knowledge sources.

YouTube for Patient Education: A Deep Learning Approach for Understanding Medical Knowledge from User-Generated Videos

YouTube presents an unprecedented opportunity to explore how machine learning methods can improve healthcare information dissemination. We propose an interdisciplinary lens that synthesizes machine learning methods with healthcare informatics themes to address the critical issue of developing a scalable algorithmic solution to evaluate videos from a health literacy and patient education perspective. We develop a deep learning method to understand the level of medical knowledge encoded in YouTube videos. Preliminary results suggest that we can extract medical knowledge from YouTube videos and classify videos according to the embedded knowledge with satisfying performance. Deep learning methods show great promise in knowledge extraction, natural language understanding, and image classification, especially in an era of patient-centric care and precision medicine.